The High Cost of Hormuz: $37 Billion Shock Exposes Iraq’s Economic Vulnerability

A drone view shows oil trucks arriving from Iraq on their way to the Baniyas oil terminal, Syria, May 14, 2026. (Reuters)

The recent regional war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Iraq’s economy into one of its most serious crises in decades. The massive financial losses are more than just another consequence of regional conflict; they have exposed Iraq’s near-total dependence on a single maritime export route.

As Baghdad struggles to finance public-sector salaries through domestic borrowing and the use of foreign-exchange reserves, the crisis has renewed scrutiny of years of poor planning, corruption, and political obstruction of strategic projects, such as the Basra-Aqaba oil pipeline, initiatives that could have provided alternative export routes and a safety net for the country’s most important source of income.

Financial and energy analysts estimate Iraq’s losses at more than $37 billion, a severe blow to an economy that relies overwhelmingly on oil revenues.

The disruption has forced authorities to draw on domestic debt and accumulated reserves to cover monthly salary and pension obligations estimated at roughly $6.5 billion.

Slow recovery

Although the conflict appears to be winding down and the Oil Ministry has expressed optimism about resuming production, energy experts caution that Iraqi oil fields may require months to return to their prewar output levels.

Before the crisis, Iraq produced more than 4.2 million barrels per day, including approximately 3.5 million barrels exported to international markets.

Observers said the consequences extend beyond the immediate financial shock caused by the freezing of oil revenues. The conflict revealed a “dangerous strategic vulnerability”: Iraq’s overwhelming reliance on southern Gulf export terminals and the Strait of Hormuz as the sole outlet for its most valuable resource.

The crisis has also revived debate over decades of mismanagement and inadequate planning in one of the country’s most vital economic sectors.

Oil trucks arrive from Iraq, on their way to the Baniyas oil terminal, in Qamishli, Syria, May 11, 2026. (Reuters)

A single export gateway

Over previous decades, Iraq possessed several overland export routes, including the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline to Türkiye, the Iraq-Saudi pipeline, and the historic Kirkuk-Haifa and Kirkuk-Baniyas lines. Most have been out of service for years because of wars, political instability, and security challenges.

Successive governments sought to revive export diversification. Among the most significant proposals was the Basra-Aqaba pipeline, championed during the administration of former Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi. The project would transport crude oil from southern Iraq to Jordan’s Red Sea port of Aqaba.

Energy specialists regard it as a strategic asset that could have reduced Iraq’s dependence on Gulf shipping routes. Political disputes and regional pressures, however, prevented its implementation.

Limited alternatives

As the crisis intensified and oil revenues dwindled, Iraq attempted to expand exports through Türkiye, Syria, and Jordan. Energy experts said those efforts achieved only marginal results.

Contrary to reports that Iraq was exporting oil through 700 tanker trucks through Syria, former Oil Ministry spokesman Asim Jihad said exports through Syrian territory amount to no more than 200 tankers per day.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that Iraq is exporting fuel oil rather than crude oil through Syria to avoid bottlenecks at producing fields.

Such shipments, he added, are operationally complex and generate only limited revenue compared with normal export volumes.

On the northern route, Jihad noted that Iraq exports between 150,000 and 200,000 barrels per day through the Kurdistan Region’s pipeline to the port of Ceyhan in Türkiye.

Meanwhile, the older federal pipeline linking Kirkuk to Ceyhan remains out of service because of extensive damage that has yet to be repaired.

A drone view shows the Rumaila oil field in Basra, Iraq, June 8, 2026. (Reuters)

Jihad expressed little optimism that Iraq can establish major alternative export corridors outside the Gulf in the near future, citing time constraints, high costs, and political complications.

He also voiced uncertainty about negotiations with Ankara over future export agreements through Ceyhan, particularly as existing arrangements are set to expire at the end of July.

“The only option left for Iraq is to hope that no new conflict erupts in the Gulf that would once again close the Strait of Hormuz and deprive the country of its primary source of income,” he added.

Cost of the blockade

The Eco Iraq Observatory estimated that Iraq has lost roughly 350 million barrels of oil exports since the Strait of Hormuz was closed on February 28, representing missed sales worth approximately $37.7 billion at average market prices during the period.

According to the organization, Iraq had been exporting between 103 million and 107 million barrels of crude oil per month before the closure. Export losses reached 84.4 million barrels in March, 93.1 million in April, 92.8 million in May, and 79.6 million in June.

Eco Iraq argued that the “New Levant” initiative — a regional economic integration project involving Iraq, Jordan, and Egypt — has become a strategic necessity.

The plan envisions deeper economic cooperation, infrastructure links, and alternative export routes, including the shipment of Iraqi oil through Jordan to Egyptian ports, reducing dependence on geopolitically vulnerable maritime corridors.