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Oil Eases as Traders Weigh US-Iran Conflict Risks

A horse grazes near an oil drilling rig in Kazakhstan (Reuters)
A horse grazes near an oil drilling rig in Kazakhstan (Reuters)
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Oil Eases as Traders Weigh US-Iran Conflict Risks

A horse grazes near an oil drilling rig in Kazakhstan (Reuters)
A horse grazes near an oil drilling rig in Kazakhstan (Reuters)

Oil prices eased on Thursday as traders weighed escalating tensions between the United States and Iran and the risks to oil supplies moving through the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures were down 27 cents, or 0.32%, to $84.68 a barrel at 1011 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate futures were down 11 cents, or 0.14%, to $79.49 a barrel. Both contracts remain close to one-month highs.

"The market is still reacting with a surprising degree of calmness," said Ole Hvalbye, market analyst at SEB Research, Reuters reported.

"It seems reasonable that prices could continue to climb towards $90-$95 and maybe even touch the $100 mark again and that is because the Strait of Hormuz is repeatedly being disrupted, creating uncertainty over oil flows from the Gulf."

The US struck Iran's coastal defences and missile sites on Wednesday after reimposing a naval blockade of its ports, while Tehran threatened to shut off more regional energy exports, saying it was engaged in an "existential war" with America.

The escalation comes after a fragile truce reached in June collapsed, reviving fears of a return to full-scale conflict and disrupting energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which handled about a fifth of daily global oil and LNG trade before the war began.

Fewer vessels passed through the strait on Wednesday, the first day after the US reimposed its naval blockade on Iran. Seven crossed on Wednesday, down from 13 the previous day.

"Markets could remain cautious as they assess immediate supply risks. So far, despite heightened military tensions, oil tankers continue to sail through the Strait of Hormuz, although in more limited numbers," said Wael Makarem, financial markets strategist lead at Exness.

Iran said on Thursday the strait was an inviolable "red line", warning that if US President Donald Trump carried out his threat to attack Iran's infrastructure, it would strike all infrastructure across the Gulf region.

Analysts say Iran has signalled it may use its Houthi allies in Yemen to shut the Bab el-Mandeb gateway to the Red Sea, opening a new front against Washington and putting a second of the world's most vital energy arteries at risk.

Oxford Economics said the likeliest scenario was that low, fluctuating levels of traffic through the strait spark intermittent oil price rallies that keep average prices above $80 per barrel for several quarters.

Elsewhere, Ukraine's Security Service said on Thursday that together with Ukraine's navy it has struck two Russian "shadow fleet" tankers with naval drones in the Black Sea.

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Crude Oil Loading Suspended at All Iraqi Terminals after Drone Incident

FILE PHOTO: Drone view of oil tanker HELGA berthed at one of Iraq's southern offshore oil terminals near Basra as it prepares to load crude oil, April 24, 2026. REUTERS/Mohammed Aty/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Drone view of oil tanker HELGA berthed at one of Iraq's southern offshore oil terminals near Basra as it prepares to load crude oil, April 24, 2026. REUTERS/Mohammed Aty/File Photo
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Crude Oil Loading Suspended at All Iraqi Terminals after Drone Incident

FILE PHOTO: Drone view of oil tanker HELGA berthed at one of Iraq's southern offshore oil terminals near Basra as it prepares to load crude oil, April 24, 2026. REUTERS/Mohammed Aty/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Drone view of oil tanker HELGA berthed at one of Iraq's southern offshore oil terminals near Basra as it prepares to load crude oil, April 24, 2026. REUTERS/Mohammed Aty/File Photo

Crude oil loading was suspended at all Iraqi terminals on Thursday after a drone crashed into an oil tanker at the Basra terminal, although it did not cause damage ⁠or a fire, ⁠four Iraqi oil and security sources told Reuters.

Iraq's oil terminals are located in the ⁠south. It was not immediately clear who launched the drone.

The oil tanker was towed outside the port alongside another tanker that was anchored as a precautionary measure.

On Wednesday, a ⁠drone ⁠came down in Iraq's Faw port without causing any damage, the state news agency reported, without giving further details. Operations at the port were not affected.

Business

US Unveils New 25% Tariff on Certain Imports from Brazil

Tourists visit the Ponte de Saudade at Jose Bonifacio Beach on Paqueta Island, Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, on July 11, 2026. (Photo by Pablo PORCIUNCULA / AFP)
Tourists visit the Ponte de Saudade at Jose Bonifacio Beach on Paqueta Island, Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, on July 11, 2026. (Photo by Pablo PORCIUNCULA / AFP)
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US Unveils New 25% Tariff on Certain Imports from Brazil

Tourists visit the Ponte de Saudade at Jose Bonifacio Beach on Paqueta Island, Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, on July 11, 2026. (Photo by Pablo PORCIUNCULA / AFP)
Tourists visit the Ponte de Saudade at Jose Bonifacio Beach on Paqueta Island, Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, on July 11, 2026. (Photo by Pablo PORCIUNCULA / AFP)

The United States announced on Wednesday a new tariff on various imports from Brazil, following a year-long investigation into the Latin American giant's trade and other policies.

The 25 percent tariff is set to take effect on July 22, as the Trump administration seeks to rebuild its tariff agenda following legal setbacks.

A range of products including beef, coffee and certain aircraft parts will be exempted, a senior US official told reporters.

The exclusions also cover certain goods that the United States does not produce.
Brazil condemned the tariffs on Thursday, promising that "reciprocal" measures would be taken.

"There is no justification for unilateral measures against our country," President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's office said in a statement on X.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Brazil's "unreasonable acts, policies, and practices" have hurt US commerce by unfairly benefitting Brazilian producers and "restricting access to one of the world's top export markets."

"We remain open to continuing negotiations with Brazil to bring about long-needed changes to the problems identified in this investigation," AFP quoted Greer as saying in a statement.
In earlier findings, the US investigation deemed that certain practices by Brazil were "unreasonable or discriminatory and burden or restrict US commerce."

Brazil has denied all allegations of unfair trade practices, calling them "unfounded" and "absurd."

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the Brazilian government had "not negotiated with the US in good faith."

"Lula has put his own ego ahead of making a deal for the welfare of the Brazilian people, and these tariffs are the price for that," he said in a post on X.

The new tariff comes as President Donald Trump's administration pushes to rebuild his economic agenda after the US Supreme Court in February struck down a swath of his global tariffs.

The Brazil tariffs were justified under Section 301 of the Trade Act, Greer's office said, and the Trump administration this year initiated other probes using the same authority.

US officials have already proposed new tariffs targeting dozens of trading partners for their alleged failures to act against forced labor.

In Brazil's case, a senior US official took aim Wednesday at what Washington deemed as adverse actions on digital trade, alongside "unfair" competition linked to state-owned electronic payments system PIX, among other issues.

The official rejected criticism that Section 301 probes were being used for political purposes.
The official said the door to negotiations remain open, although Washington wishes for its concerns -- including allegations Brazil gives preferential treatment to partners like Mexico and India -- to be resolved.

While the Trump administration said it does not expect retaliation following Wednesday's announcement, it warned that pushback could invite further US countermeasures.

At a public hearing held by Greer's office in Washington this month, Brazilian conservative presidential hopeful Flavio Bolsonaro urged the United States against imposing the new tariffs.

The eldest son of Brazil's former right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro argued that new duties would benefit Lula, his political rival.

The pair are top competitors in the October presidential election.

Last year, the Trump administration hit Brazil with sharp tariffs over the coup trial against Jair Bolsonaro, who is now serving a 27-year prison sentence.

Many of the duties were rolled back after talks between both sides.

Business

UK Economy Claws Back Some Growth as Burnham Prepares to Take Power

FILE PHOTO: People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district in London, Britain May 11, 2023. REUTERS/Henry Nicholls/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district in London, Britain May 11, 2023. REUTERS/Henry Nicholls/File Photo
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UK Economy Claws Back Some Growth as Burnham Prepares to Take Power

FILE PHOTO: People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district in London, Britain May 11, 2023. REUTERS/Henry Nicholls/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district in London, Britain May 11, 2023. REUTERS/Henry Nicholls/File Photo

Britain's economy eked out minimal growth in May as the services industry expanded but other sectors shrank, suggesting fragile confidence among businesses against the backdrop of the Iran war and a change of prime minister at home.

Gross domestic product expanded by 0.1% in May, in line with the median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists and reversing a 0.1% fall in April, official data showed on Thursday.

Services output expanded by 0.3% on the month but industrial production and construction both contracted, falling by 0.5% and 0.8% respectively.

Figures showing robust overall economic growth of 0.7% in the three months to May offered a positive send-off to finance minister Rachel Reeves before her expected replacement next week under new prime minister Andy Burnham. Reeves' ⁠job appears likely ⁠to go to Shabana Mahmood, currently Britain's interior minister, who is set to be named finance minister next week by Burnham, according to news reports on Wednesday including in the Financial Times.

An upwardly revised growth figure of 0.8% in the three months to April represented the fastest expansion since the Labour Party came to power and matched the rate achieved under Reeves' Conservative predecessor Jeremy Hunt in May 2024.

Compared with a year earlier, output in May was 1.3% higher, the biggest annual rise in 10 months.

However, ⁠the outlook for the economy remains darkened by the shadow of the conflict in the Gulf and uncertainty over the latest change of political leadership at home — Britain's seventh in the past 10 years. On Wednesday, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said it expected British GDP to grow by only 0.9% this year and 1.1% in 2027, although the forecast for 2026 was the strongest for the major European economies.

Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at fund management firm Premier Miton, said uncertainty around economic policy in Burnham's government was likely to weigh on growth in the months ahead.

"It's unlikely businesses and individuals will be actively hiring or spending ahead of getting policy details," Reuters quoted Birrell as saying. "All that, when the starting point is an economy that is barely growing."

Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, saw more positive details in the GDP data and said Britain ⁠was likely to remain near ⁠the top of the Group of Seven growth table in the April-to-June period.

"In short, PM Starmer hands over the economy to his successor on a much better footing," he said.

The OECD urged Burnham, who is due to replace Keir Starmer as prime minister on Monday, to keep the government's budget discipline, tackle high pension spending and address soaring energy prices to speed up the economy.

The Office for National Statistics, which published Thursday's figures, said the growth in services over the three months to May was driven by computer programming and advertising alongside the often-volatile pharmaceutical industry.

In May, growth in research and development in medical sciences was particularly strong, the statistics agency said.

Britain's goods trade deficit narrowed in May to its smallest since January at £18.7 billion, a bigger drop than economists had expected from April's £24.6 billion.