Dollar Drifts as US-Iran Conflict Intensifies; Sterling Edges Higher

US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. (Reuters)
US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. (Reuters)
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Dollar Drifts as US-Iran Conflict Intensifies; Sterling Edges Higher

US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. (Reuters)
US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. (Reuters)

The dollar was broadly steady on Monday as uncertainty about the outlook for the conflict in the Middle East kept traders cautious, while the pound edged higher as Andy Burnham prepared to replace Keir Starmer as prime minister.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was down 0.1% at 100.72.

Strikes between the US and Iran continued as part of an escalating cycle of attacks after an interim ceasefire agreement signed a month ago unraveled, deepening a struggle for control over the Strait of Hormuz that has disrupted energy supplies and stoked fears of global inflation.

"Markets, I think, have become somewhat more comfortable with the range of risks ‌to be priced ‌in and until something happens that catches traders by surprise, we're ‌just ⁠not going to ⁠see a huge amount of volatility for the Middle East," Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex Europe, said.

"It'll keep markets nervous. It'll keep markets cautious. But I think we're really going back to where we were, not in April, but in May, where volatility ground lower, because we saw just a general lack of conviction on where things were going to trade next," he said.

Brent crude futures were last little changed at $88.16 a barrel, having risen above the $90 mark earlier ⁠in the day.

UK CHANCELLOR CHOICE IN FOCUS

The euro was little changed ‌at $1.1441, while the British pound was 0.13% higher at $1.3470 ‌as Burnham was set to take over as premier.

Traders are especially keen to see who Burnham will ‌pick as the new chancellor given the UK's tricky fiscal position.

UK assets last week were ‌supported by reports that the job would likely go to Shabana Mahmood, widely regarded as a centrist, rather than a more left-leaning candidate.

"While we do not rule out a little further sterling strength during the Burnham honeymoon period, the UK's tight fiscal situation suggests a new cabinet will have to turn to ‌tax increases if it wants to build out its plans to improve areas such as social care," Chris Turner, head of global ⁠markets at ING, said in ⁠a note.

Elsewhere, the US dollar was down 0.17% at 6.7663 against the Chinese yuan in offshore trade after China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for a 14th consecutive month on Monday, in line with market expectations.

Against the yen, the US dollar was flat at 162.34 yen in thin liquidity as Japan observed the Marine Day holiday.

Markets continue to anticipate no change to rates at the Federal Reserve's next meeting on July 29, with Fed funds futures pricing an implied 85.6% probability of a hold, compared with a 61.5% chance a month ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack on Friday added her voice to a growing chorus of policymakers arguing interest rates may need to rise to beat back persistent inflation, setting up a charged debate at the Fed's next meeting and the possibility of dissents at Chair Kevin Warsh's second meeting at the helm.



Trump Pauses 50% Tariffs on Canadian Goods for Three Days

This aerial view shows a Capital Southern Transportation, Inc. truck passing over the Peace Bridge between Canada and the US in Fort Erie, Ontario, on August 18, 2026. (AFP)
This aerial view shows a Capital Southern Transportation, Inc. truck passing over the Peace Bridge between Canada and the US in Fort Erie, Ontario, on August 18, 2026. (AFP)
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Trump Pauses 50% Tariffs on Canadian Goods for Three Days

This aerial view shows a Capital Southern Transportation, Inc. truck passing over the Peace Bridge between Canada and the US in Fort Erie, Ontario, on August 18, 2026. (AFP)
This aerial view shows a Capital Southern Transportation, Inc. truck passing over the Peace Bridge between Canada and the US in Fort Erie, Ontario, on August 18, 2026. (AFP)

US President Donald Trump paused the planned rollout of punishing new tariffs on Canadian goods late Tuesday, as both sides indicated they were close to a broader trade agreement after weeks of talks.

Trump announced the three-day reprieve from 50-percent duties on select goods just hours before a midnight deadline.

The delay was "based on the fact that Canada and the U.S.A., subject to the finalization of documents, have a DEAL!" Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney was less definitive, saying "substantial progress has been made" towards a comprehensive trade deal, but "there is important work still to be done."

Ottawa and Washington have held intense negotiations on revising their existing deal, the United States-Canada-Mexico Agreement (USMCA), which Trump signed and praised during his first term but now says needs to change.

The US Trade Representative's office said on X that the pact between Washington and Ottawa is set to "include comprehensive market access for all American goods, economic security commitments, digital trade alignment" and other provisions.

A proclamation by Trump to pause the duties added that the suspension came about as "Canada has expressed a commitment to remove the discriminations or unreasonable and unequal impositions at issue."

Carney said the prospective deal aims to "address outstanding trade issues and deliver greater certainty and real benefits for Canadian businesses, workers, farmers and families."

- 'Discriminatory treatment' -

Trump had signed orders for the 50-percent duties last month, with the White House alleging "discriminatory treatment" by Canada against US automobile and dairy products.

The new tariffs would cover products such as wine, hockey sticks and cement.

They target around 5.5 percent of Canada's exports to the United States, worth about $20 billion, Oxford Economics estimates.

While this only poses a "modest" negative risk to Canada's economy, Oxford Economics said in a recent report that the duties would "affect central Canada's manufacturing sector much more severely."

Canadian negotiators have been in Washington to push for a deal to avoid the new tariffs and also secure relief on Trump's sector-specific duties, which have battered Canada's auto, steel, lumber and aluminum industries.

Ottawa reportedly offered concessions like pressuring provinces to put some US beverages back on their shelves.

Without going into details, Trump added in his Truth Social post: "The great Keystone XL Pipeline, long ago killed by Sleepy Joe Biden, may be awoken from the grave!"

Trump has previously called for the revival of the controversial project opposed by environmental activists, which was blocked under his predecessor Biden.

- Political concerns -

"It's not unusual for a trade negotiation to go right up to the deadline," former US commerce official Christopher Padilla told AFP.

He expects that the Trump administration threatened new tariffs to try and win early concessions from Canada as the countries negotiate new terms for the USMCA.

Oxford Economics anticipates that manufacturers who stand to be most impacted include those in the cement, paper, printing, wood, clothing and electronic equipment sectors.

With the US Supreme Court striking down many of Trump's global tariffs earlier this year, the president had tapped an untested legal provision for the new duties targeting Canada.

The US duties will not apply to Canadian energy, potash or goods already facing sector-specific tariffs, but are set to hit products covered by the USMCA.

Trump's trade envoy Jamieson Greer previously said the tariffs aimed to "hold Canada accountable" for its retaliation against the United States.


Oil Extends Climb on Prolonged Hormuz Export Uncertainty

An automated oil drilling rig operated by ExxonMobil in Midland, Texas, US, August 17, 2026. REUTERS/Sheila Dang
An automated oil drilling rig operated by ExxonMobil in Midland, Texas, US, August 17, 2026. REUTERS/Sheila Dang
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Oil Extends Climb on Prolonged Hormuz Export Uncertainty

An automated oil drilling rig operated by ExxonMobil in Midland, Texas, US, August 17, 2026. REUTERS/Sheila Dang
An automated oil drilling rig operated by ExxonMobil in Midland, Texas, US, August 17, 2026. REUTERS/Sheila Dang

Oil prices climbed for a fourth straight day on Wednesday as investors weighed conflicting messages from Tehran and Washington on whether the Strait of Hormuz is open to ships.

Brent crude futures climbed 69 cents, or 0.8%, to $91.71 by 0415 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 76 cents, or 0.9%, to $85.70 a barrel, Reuters reported.

Both contracts closed on Tuesday at their highest in more than three weeks as hopes of peace between the US and Iran faded.

US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday no talks were taking place with Iran ⁠and insisted the ⁠Strait of Hormuz was open, contradicting Iran's assertion that the critical waterway remained shut to shipping.

A temporary ceasefire agreement expired on Monday and a senior Iranian official told Reuters that his country was moving to a "fully offensive" military posture due to the diplomatic stalemate, though there were no reports of fresh strikes by either side on Tuesday.

"The shipping risks are increasing again as attacks from Iran ⁠and Houthis remain prevalent in both key chokepoints, keeping oil prices supported in the near term," said June Goh, senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities, referring to the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb strait.

Shipping through Hormuz slowed, data showed on Wednesday, as most shipowners avoided the key waterway due to a lack of clear signaling on its reopening from a blockade.

"However, Gulf producers are finding alternative export routes to bring oil out to the Gulf of Oman," said Goh. "If sustainable, this could help increase shut-in production from these two producers."

To avoid the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq's cabinet approved mechanisms for exporting Iraqi ⁠crude through specialized international ⁠and local companies and via multiple export outlets, the government said on Tuesday.

The contracts under the new mechanism will run for three months starting September 1, according to a statement issued after the cabinet meeting.

In the US, crude oil and distillate inventories fell, while gasoline stocks rose last week, market sources said, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute.

Official inventory numbers from the US Energy Information Administration are due at 10:30 a.m. ET (1430 GMT), with analysts polled by Reuters expecting crude stocks fell by about 600,000 barrels in the week ended August 14.


Iraq Approves Three-Month Mechanism to Export Crude via Local, International Firms

The Zubair Oil Field in Basra, Iraq, April 6, 2026. (Reuters)
The Zubair Oil Field in Basra, Iraq, April 6, 2026. (Reuters)
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Iraq Approves Three-Month Mechanism to Export Crude via Local, International Firms

The Zubair Oil Field in Basra, Iraq, April 6, 2026. (Reuters)
The Zubair Oil Field in Basra, Iraq, April 6, 2026. (Reuters)

Iraq's cabinet approved mechanisms for exporting Iraqi crude through specialized international and local companies and via multiple export outlets, the government said on Tuesday.

The contracts under the new mechanism will run for three months starting September 1, according to a statement issued after the cabinet meeting.

Iraq ‌is seeking ‌to diversify its oil ‌export ⁠channels and maintain flexibility ⁠in marketing its crude amid the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has disrupted regional oil flows and created uncertainty around shipping routes.

Iraq ⁠has worked to develop ‌alternative export ‌routes in addition to its traditional southern terminals, ‌including routes through Türkiye and Syria, ‌as it seeks to reduce reliance on Gulf shipping routes.

Iraq is OPEC's second-largest oil producer and relies heavily on ‌crude exports for state revenue. Most of its exports are ⁠shipped ⁠from terminals in the southern Gulf, leaving the country particularly exposed to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The government did not immediately provide details on the companies to be selected, the volumes to be exported under the mechanism, or the specific export outlets covered by the contracts.