Gold Gains as US Dollar Declines, Hopes of Mideast Deal Hit Oil

British gold Sovereign bars and coins are displayed at Baird & Co.'s headquarters in Hatton Garden, London (Reuters)
British gold Sovereign bars and coins are displayed at Baird & Co.'s headquarters in Hatton Garden, London (Reuters)
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Gold Gains as US Dollar Declines, Hopes of Mideast Deal Hit Oil

British gold Sovereign bars and coins are displayed at Baird & Co.'s headquarters in Hatton Garden, London (Reuters)
British gold Sovereign bars and coins are displayed at Baird & Co.'s headquarters in Hatton Garden, London (Reuters)

Gold prices gained on Monday as the dollar weakened and optimism over a possible US-Iran agreement sent oil prices sharply lower, tempering inflation fears and expectations of prolonged high interest rates.

Spot gold was up 0.3% at $4,052.96 per ounce, as of 1221 GMT. US gold futures edged 0.2% higher to $4,051.70. The precious metal posted its first monthly rise in five in July, rising about 1%.

Oil prices slumped more than $4 a barrel, after US President Donald Trump held off a fresh attack on Iran as he sought a quick deal that would halt Tehran's nuclear ambitions and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump said that talks with Iran will happen on Monday but declined to set a deadline for an agreement, although Iran said there were no talks under way with the United States.

"We are back to the previous correlation, with gold rising when crude oil falls, and gold falling when oil rises... The lower oil price is today reducing modestly US rate hike expectations for this year, and supporting gold," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

Elevated oil prices stoke concerns around inflation and higher interest rates, diminishing bullion's appeal as a non-yielding asset.

Further supporting gold, the US dollar came under pressure, hitting its lowest since mid-June, after authorities intervened in the foreign exchange market to support the yen, while yields on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note also fell.

Also in focus is a set of US jobs reports due this week, including the ADP employment report, and nonfarm payrolls data.

"A weaker US job market would allow the Fed to keep rates on hold this year, and that would be positive for gold, as the market prices out rate hikes for this year," Staunovo said.

Three US Federal Reserve officials who dissented at the policy meeting last week in favour of a rate hike expressed concerns on Friday that without an immediate increase in short-term borrowing costs, inflation will stay stuck above the Fed's 2% target.

Spot silver gained 0.2% to $57.77, while platinum lost 0.7% to $1,630.78, and palladium fell 0.8% to $1,263.20.



Maersk Raises Emergency Fuel Surcharge Due to Middle East Conflict

FILE PHOTO: A truck transports a Maersk container at APM Terminals at the Port of Los Angeles, California, US, March 4, 2026.   REUTERS/Mike Blake/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A truck transports a Maersk container at APM Terminals at the Port of Los Angeles, California, US, March 4, 2026. REUTERS/Mike Blake/File Photo
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Maersk Raises Emergency Fuel Surcharge Due to Middle East Conflict

FILE PHOTO: A truck transports a Maersk container at APM Terminals at the Port of Los Angeles, California, US, March 4, 2026.   REUTERS/Mike Blake/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A truck transports a Maersk container at APM Terminals at the Port of Los Angeles, California, US, March 4, 2026. REUTERS/Mike Blake/File Photo

Danish shipping group Maersk said on Thursday it was increasing its emergency fuel surcharge (EFS) on all export collections and import deliveries due to ⁠the ongoing conflict ⁠in the Middle East.

Oil prices rose on Thursday on worries about supply from ⁠the Middle East region amid an increase in attacks on shipping in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, while the US cut output as a hurricane menaced offshore production.

Maersk ⁠said ⁠in a statement it was increasing its EFS to 20% as of October 12, and that it would continue to review the surcharge regularly.


IMF Reaches Staff Deal with Pakistan, Potentially Unlocking $1.2 Bn

FILE - The logo of the International Monetary Fund is visible on its building, April 5, 2021, in Washington. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)
FILE - The logo of the International Monetary Fund is visible on its building, April 5, 2021, in Washington. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)
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IMF Reaches Staff Deal with Pakistan, Potentially Unlocking $1.2 Bn

FILE - The logo of the International Monetary Fund is visible on its building, April 5, 2021, in Washington. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)
FILE - The logo of the International Monetary Fund is visible on its building, April 5, 2021, in Washington. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)

The International Monetary Fund has reached a staff-level agreement with Pakistan on reviews of some of its lending programs, potentially unlocking about $1.21 billion in financing pending board approval, the fund said on Wednesday.

If the board approves the deal, Pakistan could access about $1 billion under the ⁠Extended Fund Facility ⁠and $210 million under the climate-focused Resilience and Sustainability Facility, bringing total disbursements under the two programs to around $5.7 billion.

Pakistan remains reliant on external financing to bolster foreign ⁠exchange reserves and meet debt repayments.

"Supported by the EFF, the authorities have successfully navigated the impact of the Middle East conflict, and strong policies have helped preserve macroeconomic stability," Reuters quoted the fund as saying.

Risks remain elevated, however, due to geopolitical tensions, volatile energy prices, tighter global financial conditions ⁠and ⁠trade disruptions, the IMF said.

Pakistan is the most vulnerable major Asia-Pacific economy to a prolonged Middle East conflict, given its dependence on Gulf energy imports, remittances and financing support from the region, Ahmad Mobeen, principal economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said earlier this year.


Gold Pauses Decline after Two-month Low as Traders Weigh US Fed Move

A 1000-gram gold bar at a gold and silver refinery in Vienna (AFP)
A 1000-gram gold bar at a gold and silver refinery in Vienna (AFP)
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Gold Pauses Decline after Two-month Low as Traders Weigh US Fed Move

A 1000-gram gold bar at a gold and silver refinery in Vienna (AFP)
A 1000-gram gold bar at a gold and silver refinery in Vienna (AFP)

Gold prices steadied on Thursday after sliding to a two-month low in the previous session, as investors assessed the likelihood of another US Federal Reserve interest rate hike before year-end.

Spot gold was little changed at $4,116.67 per ounce by 0625 GMT. On Wednesday, bullion prices touched their lowest level since August 5 as a ‌firmer dollar and ‌higher US Treasury yields weighed on the ‌market.

US ⁠gold futures were ⁠flat at $4,140.70.

"The short-term investment case for gold remains challenged... We would need to see a break above $4,275 to become more constructive on the near-term upside," said Chris Weston, head of research, Pepperstone.

"If markets begin treating rising long-end yields as a reflection of sovereign credit and fiscal risk rather than stronger economic fundamentals, gold ⁠could start to diverge positively from bond yields ‌and the debasement trade could return ‌with greater force."

Fed policymakers were divided last month over the rationale for ‌raising interest rates, with "some participants" seeing a hike as needed ‌to keep the impact of energy and other price shocks at bay, but a more hawkish core viewing it as necessary to guard against emerging demand-driven inflation, minutes showed.

Traders see only a 19% chance ‌of a rate hike later this month, but are pricing in an 86% likelihood of ⁠an increase ⁠in December, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

Higher rates diminish the appeal of non-yielding gold.

The global economy is under threat from persistently high energy prices, record public debt and risks from the AI investment boom, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned, urging governments to implement protective fiscal and monetary policy measures.

Among other metals, spot silver fell 1.9% at $59.01, platinum added 1.6% to $1,657.18 and palladium climbed 1.1% to $1,136.80.

"We see silver on a downward trajectory given the deteriorating chart patterns and expect a test of the 2026 lows in the mid to high $50s," Marex analyst Edward Meir said in a note.