Oil Ticks up After Selloff as Talks to End US-Iran War Remain Uncertain

A drone view shows a Chinese-flagged oil tanker moored at an oil terminal at Tsing Yi port, with Tsing Ma bridge in the background, in Hong Kong, China March 19, 2026. (Reuters)
A drone view shows a Chinese-flagged oil tanker moored at an oil terminal at Tsing Yi port, with Tsing Ma bridge in the background, in Hong Kong, China March 19, 2026. (Reuters)
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Oil Ticks up After Selloff as Talks to End US-Iran War Remain Uncertain

A drone view shows a Chinese-flagged oil tanker moored at an oil terminal at Tsing Yi port, with Tsing Ma bridge in the background, in Hong Kong, China March 19, 2026. (Reuters)
A drone view shows a Chinese-flagged oil tanker moored at an oil terminal at Tsing Yi port, with Tsing Ma bridge in the background, in Hong Kong, China March 19, 2026. (Reuters)

Oil prices rebounded 1% on Tuesday from a plunge in the previous session, fueled by concerns that Middle East supply remains at risk as a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran war that has disrupted shipments still seems unlikely.

Front-month Brent futures rose $1.02, or 1.2%, to $84.79 a barrel by 0632 GMT after dropping 7% in the previous session to a three-week low.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 46 cents, or 0.6%, at $80.80 a barrel after falling more than 5% in the previous session to its lowest in nearly a ‌week.

Prices dropped after ‌US President Donald Trump said on Sunday he was holding ‌off ⁠on new attacks ⁠on Iran pending ongoing talks to end their war and settle claims over control of the key Strait of Hormuz.

The strategic waterway, which connects Gulf oil producers to global markets, was a channel for about a fifth of global shipments of crude oil and natural gas before the conflict.

However, on Monday, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei rejected Trump's claim, saying no negotiations with the US were taking place and no meetings were scheduled.

"The scale of the ⁠sell-off seems fairly overdone, given that there's still considerable uncertainty. We’ve ‌been in this situation multiple times before, only to ‌see things unravel," ING analysts said in a note.

"And with Iran denying that any talks are underway ‌and Trump issuing warnings if no deal materializes, the backdrop clearly leaves ample room for ‌a renewed escalation."

The Hormuz dispute is a central sticking-point in talks. Washington says the memorandum of understanding agreed in June required Iran to open the waterway, while Tehran says the text explicitly preserved its authority.

Analysts at Barclays said crude oil and refined product net exports through the strait averaged ‌4.2 million barrels per day in the week ended July 31, versus 3.2 million the previous week.

Shipping traffic at the key Gulf waterways of Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz held largely unchanged at the start of the week. Hormuz remains dangerous for vessels.

"With the Strait of Hormuz, it keeps a dual-chokepoint risk in the market that prevents oil from fully unwinding its geopolitical premium," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.



Shipping Traffic Via Strait of Hormuz Stays Below 10-day Average, Data Shows

Vessels transit the Hormuz Strait off the coast of Iran's southern port city of Bandar Abbas on September 7, 2026. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP) /
Vessels transit the Hormuz Strait off the coast of Iran's southern port city of Bandar Abbas on September 7, 2026. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP) /
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Shipping Traffic Via Strait of Hormuz Stays Below 10-day Average, Data Shows

Vessels transit the Hormuz Strait off the coast of Iran's southern port city of Bandar Abbas on September 7, 2026. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP) /
Vessels transit the Hormuz Strait off the coast of Iran's southern port city of Bandar Abbas on September 7, 2026. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP) /

Four commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf on Thursday, down from six a day earlier and below the 10-day average of about 16, preliminary shipping data showed on Friday.

The figures could change as some ships typically switch off their transponders during the voyage to avoid the risk of detection in the conflict zone, said Reuters.

Of the four vessels, three were entering ‌the strait ‌heading into the Gulf and one ‌was ⁠exiting, the data ⁠from shiptracker Kpler showed at 0200 GMT.

The vessels included two Panamax tankers, one Supramax ship and one Kamsarmax vessel. The waterway carried a fifth of the world's oil and gas before the Iran conflict.

Meanwhile, 23 commodity vessels transited ⁠the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Thursday, another ‌maritime chokepoint on ‌the southwest tip of Yemen and a vital trade route ‌for oil between the Red Sea and ‌the Gulf of Aden.

The data showed 13 vessels heading towards the Red Sea and 10 towards the Gulf of Aden. They included a Panamax and ‌a Suezmax tanker, four Supramax vessels and six Aframax tankers.

The number compares with ⁠an ⁠average of around 26 ships using the strait in the past 10 days.


Gulf Markets Hold Firm Despite Tensions, US Rate Hike

A man watches stocks fall in the Kuwaiti market (AFP)
A man watches stocks fall in the Kuwaiti market (AFP)
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Gulf Markets Hold Firm Despite Tensions, US Rate Hike

A man watches stocks fall in the Kuwaiti market (AFP)
A man watches stocks fall in the Kuwaiti market (AFP)

Most Gulf stock markets advanced on Thursday despite mounting geopolitical tensions, as investors weighed the fallout from the US Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate hike in more than three years.

Most Gulf Cooperation Council central banks raised their key rates after the Fed lifted rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday.

Most Gulf currencies are pegged to the US dollar, except the Kuwaiti dinar, which is tied to a dollar-dominated currency basket. Gulf monetary policy therefore tends to track the Fed’s moves.

The Saudi Central Bank, known as SAMA, raised its repo and reverse repo rates by 25 basis points to 4.50% and 4.00%, respectively.

The Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates lifted the base rate on its overnight deposit facility by 25 basis points to 3.90%, while the Central Bank of Oman raised its repo rate by the same amount to 4.50%. Qatar Central Bank also increased its key rates by 25 basis points.

Subdued shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continued to weigh on investor sentiment, with attention turning to US President Donald Trump’s expected meeting with Gulf leaders next week.

Strong domestic fundamentals could continue to support the markets despite geopolitical pressures, said Milad Azar, a market analyst at XTB MENA.

Hopes that the Fed’s move would begin to rein in inflation helped calm a global bond selloff and curb a sharp recent rise in yields.

Mixed market performance

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index surrendered early gains to close flat. Saudi National Bank fell 1.3%, while Saudi Aramco lost 0.5%.

Dubai’s main index gained 0.3%, helped by a 0.5% rise in Emaar Properties.

Abu Dhabi climbed 0.5%, while Qatar added 0.2%.

Bahrain fell 0.3% and Kuwait lost 0.4%, while Oman advanced 0.7%.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index rose 1.2%, supported by a 0.6% gain in Commercial International Bank.

Market closings:

Saudi Arabia: Flat at 10,778 points.

Abu Dhabi: Up 0.5% at 10,161 points.

Dubai: Up 0.3% at 5,987 points.

Qatar: Up 0.2% at 9,659 points.

Egypt: Up 1.2% at 55,499 points.

Bahrain: Down 0.3% at 1,924 points.

Oman: Up 0.7% at 7,603 points.

Kuwait: Down 0.4% at 9,244 points.


Syrian Energy Minister Revises Fuel Prices, Announces Subsidized Diesel

A fuel station in Damascus displays prices following a recent increase that sparked protests in several Syrian cities. (Reuters)
A fuel station in Damascus displays prices following a recent increase that sparked protests in several Syrian cities. (Reuters)
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Syrian Energy Minister Revises Fuel Prices, Announces Subsidized Diesel

A fuel station in Damascus displays prices following a recent increase that sparked protests in several Syrian cities. (Reuters)
A fuel station in Damascus displays prices following a recent increase that sparked protests in several Syrian cities. (Reuters)

Syrian Energy Minister Mohammed al-Bashir announced on Thursday that subsidized diesel would be sold at 115 Syrian pounds per liter, saying the ministry had approved practical measures to ease the burden on citizens while maintaining supplies.

Speaking at a news conference with Syrian Petroleum Company Chief Executive Youssef Qablawi on developments in the oil sector, Bashir said several grades of diesel would be offered at different prices and specifications to reduce living costs.

He also said several small local refineries would be restarted under the management and supervision of the Syrian Petroleum Company, with a combined capacity of up to 35,000 barrels of crude oil per day.

The Permanent Committee for Pricing Petroleum Products and Mineral Resources issued a temporary price list for petroleum products on Sunday. Syrians were caught off guard by the decision, which raised prices by between 25% and 40%, reflecting regional and global developments.

The decision triggered widespread public anger, particularly in eastern and northern Syria, where residents face complex economic, administrative, security and living conditions. Concerns have mounted that higher fuel prices will further increase already steep everyday expenses.

Bashir said at the news conference, carried by the state news agency SANA, that he met President Ahmed al-Sharaa on Wednesday to discuss practical alternatives.

They approved a proposal to offer several grades of diesel at different prices and specifications according to their intended use, rather than limiting the market to a single, high-grade and costly product, he said.

“We recognize that higher energy prices have a direct impact on people’s livelihoods and on the agricultural, production and service sectors,” Bashir said.

“Our responsibility is not limited to securing petroleum products. It also includes seeking solutions that ease the burden while maintaining continuity of supply.”

Bashir said subsidized diesel priced at 115 Syrian pounds per liter would be allocated primarily for heating, agriculture and groups eligible for government support.

Diesel meeting specifications suitable for transportation and for production and service-sector uses would be offered at 150 pounds per liter, he added.

The minister said crude petroleum products cost less than finished products. Syria spends about $140 million a month purchasing gas for power generation to meet the needs of its electricity plants, he said.

Syria imports 5.3 million cubic meters of gas per day from several countries, Bashir said, adding that the state treasury could not bear additional costs.

He said accumulated electricity-sector debt and losses from petroleum products had affected investment projects and capital spending. Unpaid electricity bills and illegal connections to the power grid had also increased losses at the Syrian Electricity Company.

“The state has adopted a policy of moving from a socialist economy to a free-market system, and we recognize the difficulties that this entails,” Bashir said.

“The return of the Baniyas refinery to operation and an increase in domestic production will have a positive effect on petroleum product prices.”

Qablawi said the Syrian Petroleum Company had begun preparing an implementation plan for the measures after discussing the relevant mechanisms with the Energy Ministry.

The company had spent the previous period studying the technical and operational details and working to remove potential obstacles to ensure smooth implementation, he said, according to Syria’s state-run Al-Ikhbariya television.

Qablawi said he hoped implementation would begin in the coming days, depending on technical and administrative readiness, adding that further details would be announced gradually.

Only designated fuel stations in the provinces would sell products processed by the small local refineries, he said.

The pricing committee issued its new temporary price list on Sept. 13.

The Energy Ministry later said the increase in Syrian petroleum product prices resulted from an exceptional rise in global procurement costs coinciding with a comprehensive overhaul of the Baniyas refinery.

It said the adjustment was temporary and intended to maintain supplies and ensure that petroleum products remained available on the domestic market.

Syria has been affected by higher global procurement costs for gasoline, diesel and fuel oil at a time when the Baniyas refinery is undergoing an overhaul expected to last about two months, temporarily increasing the country’s reliance on imported finished products.