Aramco’s Resilience Strengthens its Ability to Weather Energy Market Volatility

Engineers monitor operations at a Saudi Aramco facility. (Aramco)
Engineers monitor operations at a Saudi Aramco facility. (Aramco)
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Aramco’s Resilience Strengthens its Ability to Weather Energy Market Volatility

Engineers monitor operations at a Saudi Aramco facility. (Aramco)
Engineers monitor operations at a Saudi Aramco facility. (Aramco)

Saudi Aramco’s second-quarter 2026 results underscored the company’s ability to maintain strong financial and operational performance despite geopolitical uncertainty and volatile energy markets.

Adjusted net income reached SAR125.2 billion ($33.4 billion) in the second quarter, while adjusted net income for the first half totaled SAR251.9 billion ($67.2 billion).

Cash flow from operating activities stood at SAR95.4 billion ($25.4 billion) in the second quarter and SAR210.6 billion ($56.2 billion) in the first half. Free cash flow reached SAR46 billion ($12.3 billion) during the quarter and SAR115.9 billion ($30.9 billion) in the first six months of the year.

The company’s board also approved a base dividend of SAR82.1 billion ($21.9 billion) for the second quarter, to be paid in the third quarter.

Cash flow enhances investment appeal

Mohammed Farraj, Senior Director of Asset Management at Arbah Capital, told Asharq Al-Awsat that Aramco’s results demonstrate the company has entered a new stage of operational and financial maturity. The quarterly performance, he said, reflects not merely strong numbers but the outcome of a long-term strategy and carefully planned investments in infrastructure and supply chains.

He continued that Aramco has shown exceptional resilience in navigating geopolitical challenges and energy market volatility, supported by diversified export routes, a strong financial position, and production costs that remain among the lowest in the industry. Those advantages have enabled the company to maintain stable, efficient operations.

Farraj cited first-half free cash flow of SAR115.9 billion ($30.9 billion) as a key indicator of Aramco’s robust cash-generating ability. He added that the temporary pressure from higher working capital in the second quarter was mainly related to inventory and receivables management and represented a short-term operational challenge with no impact on the company’s business quality or financial fundamentals.

He also said geopolitical uncertainty and declining global oil inventories have made markets more sensitive to potential supply disruptions, raising the risk premium. Highly efficient producers such as Aramco, he added, are well positioned to benefit from this environment while maintaining reliable energy supplies.

Dividends and growth projects

For his part, Dr. Hussein Al-Attas told Asharq Al-Awsat that the results reflect the resilience of Aramco’s business model and its ability to sustain strong profitability despite recent challenges in energy markets.

He attributed the performance to low production costs, integration across upstream, refining and petrochemical operations, and disciplined cost management.

He said Aramco’s ability to continue meeting global energy demand during a period of rapid geopolitical change demonstrates that it operates one of the world’s most integrated and reliable energy operations, reinforcing its position as a trusted supplier supporting global energy security.

On dividends, Al-Attas noted that maintaining the base payout at SAR82.1 billion ($21.9 billion) reflects the strength of the company’s cash flows and management’s confidence in its future ability to generate liquidity. The payout also enhances the stock’s appeal to investors seeking stable, long-term returns.

Highest yield among energy majors

Al-Attas highlighted that Saudi Aramco offers the highest dividend yield among the world’s energy majors, at around 5%, exceeding the 3.5% average dividend yield of the Saudi benchmark Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) and slightly surpassing the three-month Saudi Interbank Offered Rate (SAIBOR).

He added that the company increased its dividend by about 2% year on year, supported by earnings growth and its ability to maintain energy supplies, further enhancing the stock’s attractiveness for income-focused investors.

Al-Farraj noted that Aramco’s growing focus on natural gas, strategic investments, advanced technologies, and emissions-reduction solutions marks a significant shift in its strategic identity, transforming it from a traditional oil producer into an integrated global energy company.

He stressed that the expansion is aimed at diversifying growth drivers and reducing reliance on crude oil, in line with global shifts in the energy sector while strengthening the company’s long-term sustainability prospects.

Business continuity amid changing conditions

"Aramco's first-half performance in 2026 has been defined by the remarkable resilience of our people and the agility of our business and operations to withstand and respond to rapidly changing market conditions,” said Aramco President and CEO Amin Nasser.

“Despite the unprecedented supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, we continued to demonstrate our ability to maintain business continuity by capitalizing on our diverse asset base and multi-decade planning, including strategic infrastructure such as the East-West Pipeline, storage capacity, and export terminals. That enabled us to sustain production and exports while advancing key projects, despite the challenging regional environment,” he added.

He stated that geopolitical uncertainty and declining global inventories underscore the importance of energy security and the development of additional energy sources more than ever.

“Our role in swiftly responding to short-term market dynamics, coupled with our ability to ramp up production and focus on strategic investment and technology deployment, reinforce our continued position in the global economy,” he added.



Silver Demand Seen Down 5% This Year Due to Weaker Jewellery Purchases

Silver bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. (Reuters)
Silver bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. (Reuters)
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Silver Demand Seen Down 5% This Year Due to Weaker Jewellery Purchases

Silver bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. (Reuters)
Silver bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. (Reuters)

Silver demand is expected to fall by 5% in 2026 due to weaker jewellery demand and lower consumption in solar cells, where high prices have accelerated substitution, research showed on Friday.

Research done by consultancy Metals Focus for the Silver Institute puts demand at 1.08 billion troy ounces this year.

Silver, used in jewellery, electronics, electric vehicles and solar panels as well as for investment, is ‌down 59% ‌to $50 an ounce since retail buying drove prices ‌to ⁠a record high ⁠of $121.6 in January.

The base for that rally was created in 2025, when silver surged 147%, as massive inflows of the metal to US inventories due to tariff uncertainty and into silver-backed exchange-traded products (ETPs) tightened liquidity in the London market.

This year, expectations for higher interest rates, a stronger dollar and higher bond yields have weighed on investment ⁠sentiment.

Silver released through ETP selling, outflows from stocks ‌in the US and a smaller ‌market deficit improved liquidity in the physical market, the Silver Institute and ‌consultancy Metals Focus said on Friday.

Metals Focus sees net ETP ‌outflows of 45 million ounces this year after 278 million ounces of inflows in 2025.

As of early November, ETP holdings stood at 1.25 billion ounces.

Industrial demand is expected to fall by 3% in 2026 as installations ‌in photovoltaics have fallen short of expectations, particularly in China, while January's record silver prices accelerated ⁠substitution.

Meanwhile, demand ⁠for jewellery and silverware is forecast to decline by 22% and 17%, respectively, as higher prices and weaker rural spending in India encouraged purchases of smaller, lighter products.

Demand in China and the US is also subdued. Strong retail investment in late 2025 and early 2026 gave way to far more subdued buying from March as silver prices fell, Metals Focus said.

It expects global bar and coin demand to fall 2% this year, with US retail investment hitting its lowest level since 2010.


Gold Rises on Bargain Hunting but Heads for Weekly Decline

Gold necklaces are on display inside a jewellery showroom on the occasion of Akshaya Tritiya, a major gold buying festival, in Mumbai, India April 18, 2018. (Reuters)
Gold necklaces are on display inside a jewellery showroom on the occasion of Akshaya Tritiya, a major gold buying festival, in Mumbai, India April 18, 2018. (Reuters)
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Gold Rises on Bargain Hunting but Heads for Weekly Decline

Gold necklaces are on display inside a jewellery showroom on the occasion of Akshaya Tritiya, a major gold buying festival, in Mumbai, India April 18, 2018. (Reuters)
Gold necklaces are on display inside a jewellery showroom on the occasion of Akshaya Tritiya, a major gold buying festival, in Mumbai, India April 18, 2018. (Reuters)

Gold rose on Friday as bargain hunting emerged after prices hit a more than one-year low in the previous session, while market focus shifted to upcoming US inflation data.

Spot gold climbed 1% to $3,915.31 per ounce by 0322 GMT but was down 3.5% so far this week. US gold futures for December delivery gained 0.9% to $3,919.60.

"Today's move is ‌more of a ‌positioning adjustment, given that several intraday short-term ‌momentum ⁠indicators had kind ⁠of hit an extreme oversold level after yesterday's dramatic fall," said Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA.

"A short-term driver that could be bullish for gold will be a sudden turn of the US Treasury yield, that would potentially slow down the US dollar."

Spot gold prices hit their lowest level since ⁠October 2025 on Thursday as oil prices climbed ‌on fading hopes for peace ‌in the Middle East, spurring fears of higher inflation and elevated interest ‌rates.

Markets see an 89% chance of a 25-basis-point US ‌rate hike in December, while the probability of a larger 50-basis-point move is priced at 11%, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

Although gold is typically seen as an inflation hedge, higher interest rates increase the ‌opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, reducing its appeal to investors.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York ⁠President John ⁠Williams said on Thursday more rate hikes are likely as the US central bank seeks to lower high levels of inflation in an otherwise healthy economy.

Data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, but remained at a level consistent with a stable labor market.

Market participants now await the US Producer Price Index data due at 1330 GMT.

Among other metals, spot silver rose 1% to $50.49 per ounce and palladium climbed 2.1% to $1,014.50, but both were headed for weekly declines.

Spot platinum gained 1.3% to $1,538.22 and was on track for a modest weekly gain.


Dollar Set for Best Week in Two Months, Yen Tests 160

US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. (Reuters)
US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. (Reuters)
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Dollar Set for Best Week in Two Months, Yen Tests 160

US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. (Reuters)
US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. (Reuters)

The dollar held near 19-month highs on Friday and was set for its biggest weekly rise in two months as bets on a larger rate hike pushed up US yields and the yen hovered below the 160 mark, prompting Tokyo to warn it would respond to excessive moves.

Treasury yields rose after President Donald Trump's comment that the US did not need a deal with Iran stoked worries about Middle Eastern oil supply, lifting crude prices and, with them, inflation expectations.

The move, together with hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and this week's stronger-than-expected ‌US inflation data, has ‌left traders weighing the prospect of a larger-than-usual Fed rate hike ‌next ⁠month.

Two-year Treasury yields ⁠have risen 33 basis points so far this week to around 4.85%, on course for their biggest weekly jump since 2024.

The biggest risk to dollar strength is a Middle East peace deal, said Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex, as that would diminish the support it draws from high energy prices and its safe-haven status.

"Absent that happening, we think the dollar is likely to continue to at least remain around current levels if not strengthen slightly as we look ahead," Rees said.

The ⁠euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1065, after hitting its lowest level against the ‌dollar since April 2025. For the week, it is ‌down 0.7%, on track for its largest weekly loss since late September.

Fed officials this week warned that US ‌inflation remains stubbornly elevated, with some signalling openness to a 50-basis-point rate increase if price pressures ‌fail to ease. Traders are pricing in a 12.1% chance of such a hike next month, up from 0% last week, the CME FedWatch tool showed.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was at 103.17, near its highest since April 2025. For the week, the dollar is set ‌to gain 0.9%, the most since September.

YEN INTERVENTION IN FOCUS

The yen was steady at 159.90 per dollar, around its weakest since early September, ⁠fuelling concerns about possible intervention. ⁠The currency has weakened 0.9% this week, on track for its biggest weekly loss since September.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday the government would respond appropriately to currency volatility.

Japan spent 15.4 trillion yen ($96.5 billion) to bolster the currency after it sank to a four-decade low of 163.99 per dollar in late July.

Markets will be cautious around this level, said Monex's Rees, adding that he expects the trigger for intervention somewhere a little higher than 160.

The Australian dollar has fallen about 3.4% so far this month, making it the worst-performing G10 currency against the greenback. Australia is the only G10 country for which markets are pricing a rate cut next year. The Aussie was last at $0.6794.

The dollar was little changed against the Swiss franc at 0.836, hovering near a one-month high.

Among cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 3.8% to $68,759, dropping below the key $70,000 level to its lowest since August. Ether also dropped 4% to $1,933.49.