Dollar Treads Water as Fed Hike Bets Pared on Benign US Inflation

A picture illustration shows US 100 dollar bank notes taken in Tokyo August 2, 2011. (Reuters)
A picture illustration shows US 100 dollar bank notes taken in Tokyo August 2, 2011. (Reuters)
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Dollar Treads Water as Fed Hike Bets Pared on Benign US Inflation

A picture illustration shows US 100 dollar bank notes taken in Tokyo August 2, 2011. (Reuters)
A picture illustration shows US 100 dollar bank notes taken in Tokyo August 2, 2011. (Reuters)

The dollar's advance stalled on Thursday after an overall benign US inflation reading overnight spurred traders to pare back bets for a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hike.

The greenback was little changed against the yen in Asia's afternoon, but remained on course to gain about 1% this week as markets bought back the currency pair following recent joint US-Japan intervention that saw it plummet to a three-month low.

The dollar index, which measures the US currency against the yen and five other major peers, was flat at 99.976 on Thursday, ‌but on course ‌for a 0.4% weekly rise.

US consumer prices increased 0.1% ‌in ⁠July, in line ⁠with economists' expectations, leading money markets to reduce the odds of a September rate hike to 40%, down from 54% a week ago, according to CME Group's FedWatch.

Michael Wan, a currency strategist at MUFG, said the primary dilemma for the Fed now lies in weighing inflation risks against a softening labor market, particularly after the weaker-than-expected July payrolls report released last Friday.

"We think that the FOMC is likely to maintain a restrictive holding pattern in September rather than a pivot towards ⁠a hike," Wan said in a note.

The dollar changed hands at 159.35 ‌yen, close to the 160 level that some market ‌participants see as a line in the sand following the rare joint intervention at the end of ‌July. The action helped pull the exchange rate down from near a four-decade peak close ‌to 164 to 155.20 over the course of three days.

Shusuke Yamada, head of Japan FX/rates research at Bank of America, said investors can only judge the authorities' commitment to defending the yen through dollar-yen price action and the policy response that follows.

"A break above 160 would likely be interpreted as a sign ‌of limited policy resolve, while successful intervention that pushes USD/JPY below 155 would have strengthened perceptions of strong commitment at least until recently," ⁠Yamada said.

"Confidence in Japan's ⁠commitment to defending the yen improved after coordinated intervention with the US on July 31. However, as USD/JPY has rebounded without any intervention over the past week, that credibility appears to have eroded."

The euro was little changed at $1.1525. Sterling edged down 0.04% to $1.3491 ahead of a slew of UK data due later in the day, including GDP.

The Australian dollar eased 0.2% to $0.7048, but was still close to Wednesday's 10-week high of $0.7091. Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Christopher Kent told a Reuters NEXT Newsmaker event in Sydney that the risks on inflation were very much to the upside and if those risks materialized, rates would have to rise again.

The New Zealand dollar slid 0.4% to $0.5833 after a surprisingly low reading on inflation expectations stirred doubts about the need for aggressive rate hikes. The currency has retreated gradually after hitting the highest levels since early June earlier this month.

Bitcoin was slightly higher at around $63,883.



Oil Prices Slide on Hopes of Diplomacy in Iran War

Oil tankers in Basra port (Reuters)
Oil tankers in Basra port (Reuters)
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Oil Prices Slide on Hopes of Diplomacy in Iran War

Oil tankers in Basra port (Reuters)
Oil tankers in Basra port (Reuters)

Oil prices slid to their lowest in more than a week on Monday as investors hoped for diplomatic progress on the Iran war due to this week's UN meeting.

Brent crude futures and US West Texas Intermediate crude touched their lowest since September 10 earlier on Monday. The Brent contract for November was at $102.09 a barrel at 0655 GMT, down $1.78, or 1.71%, after settling 0.91% lower on Friday, Reuters said.

The WTI October contract that is expiring on Tuesday fell $1.97, or 1.96%, to $98.33 a barrel following a ‌1.58% drop in the ‌previous session.

"It seems that a degree of risk premium is ‌being ⁠removed from oil prices ⁠on hopes that a diplomatic path to de-escalate the US-Iran war may arrive this week," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

"Whether that hope proves to be warranted or not is another question. Time will tell."

WTI broke a key psychological support at $100 a barrel while some investors may have rolled over their positions in the October contract a day ahead of expiry to November, a Singapore-based broker said.

Iran and the US exchanged new threats on Sunday, although President Donald Trump said ⁠he would be open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who is ‌expected to be in New York this week for ‌the United Nations General Assembly.

Iran has conveyed its conditions to mediators for re-engaging in negotiations aimed at ‌ending the war with the US, Al Jazeera cited Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, as ‌saying in an interview on Saturday.

On Monday, a spokesman ‌for the Revolutionary Guards, Hossein Mohebbi, said Iran would use new weapons and target locations not previously attacked if the US launched a ⁠new offensive against it, ⁠according to the Fars news agency.

China has asked Iran to help rein in the Houthis after an appeal to Beijing following the attacks, according to three Iranian sources familiar with the matter.


Gold Slips as Focus Remains on Middle East, Rate Outlook

Gold bars, each weighing 1000 grams, displayed at a gold and silver refinery in Vienna (AFP)
Gold bars, each weighing 1000 grams, displayed at a gold and silver refinery in Vienna (AFP)
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Gold Slips as Focus Remains on Middle East, Rate Outlook

Gold bars, each weighing 1000 grams, displayed at a gold and silver refinery in Vienna (AFP)
Gold bars, each weighing 1000 grams, displayed at a gold and silver refinery in Vienna (AFP)

Gold prices slipped on Monday as market participants assessed developments in the Middle East and their implications for inflation and interest rates.

Spot gold fell 0.3% to $4,362.60 per ounce by 0417 GMT after hitting a one-week high on Friday. US gold futures were down 0.6% at $4,400.20, Reuters reported.

Iran and the United States exchanged new threats, with President ‌Donald Trump ‌warning Iran would fail economically or face its ‌leadership ⁠being wiped out ⁠if it didn't make a deal, and the Iranian military saying it would retaliate harshly to any fresh attack.

"The focus remains on geopolitics, oil and the reaction in bond yields. For gold to gain meaningful upside traction, a clear move lower in oil and/or bond yields is likely required," said Tim Waterer, chief market ⁠analyst at KCM Trade.

"Gold may trade in a ‌roughly $4,200 to $4,580 range in the near ‌term."

Oil prices fell on hopes diplomacy in the Iran war will ‌get a chance this week amid a UN meet.

The prospect of a new global rate-tightening cycle has come into focus as some of the world's top central banks ‌raise rates and signal more may be needed to tame inflation fueled by the Iran war.

The Bank ⁠of Japan ⁠became the latest big central bank to tighten on Friday, following rate increases by the Federal Reserve earlier that week and the European Central Bank the week before.

Though gold is often seen as an inflation hedge, rising rates tend to curb its demand by making interest-bearing assets more attractive.

Analysts at Standard Chartered said in a note that gold remains volatile but continues to find firm downside support from official-sector demand. They said structural drivers remain in place to lift prices, albeit at a slower pace.

Among other metals, spot silver rose 0.2% to $66.37, platinum fell 0.1% to $1,798.31 and palladium added 0.6% at $1,309.65.


Qatar Launches Wealth Fund Division for Domestic Investments

Qatari flag flutters in Doha - AAWSAT/File
Qatari flag flutters in Doha - AAWSAT/File
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Qatar Launches Wealth Fund Division for Domestic Investments

Qatari flag flutters in Doha - AAWSAT/File
Qatari flag flutters in Doha - AAWSAT/File

Qatar's prime minister announced on Sunday the creation of a new division of the Qatar Investment Authority dedicated to developing domestic investments.

"We aim to expand the role of the private sector in driving Qatar's economic growth," Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said as he announced the new division, Doha Investment, at a special edition of the Qatar Economic Forum in New York.

The annual gathering was cancelled in May, following weeks of Iranian missile and drone attacks on Gulf states, including Qatar, according to Reuters.

"It will support our strongest companies, help emerging businesses grow, deepen capital markets and attract international capital and expertise to contribute to this effort," he added.

The new division will operate as the dedicated manager of QIA's local portfolio, initially overseeing 45 state-owned enterprises that represent roughly one-third of the wealth fund's total assets, according to Sheikh Faisal bin Thani Al Thani, Qatar's minister of commerce and industry. He will serve as managing director and vice-chairman of Doha Investment.

Sheikh Faisal described the division not as a new creation but a consolidation, adding that the step has been under consideration for more than a decade.