Dollar Holds Gains, Yen Slips as Middle East Energy Shock Deepens

14 January 2020, Iraq, Baghdad: US dollar banknotes are pictured at a currency exchange service provider. (dpa)
14 January 2020, Iraq, Baghdad: US dollar banknotes are pictured at a currency exchange service provider. (dpa)
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Dollar Holds Gains, Yen Slips as Middle East Energy Shock Deepens

14 January 2020, Iraq, Baghdad: US dollar banknotes are pictured at a currency exchange service provider. (dpa)
14 January 2020, Iraq, Baghdad: US dollar banknotes are pictured at a currency exchange service provider. (dpa)

The dollar held near its highest levels of the past week in Asian trading on Friday as renewed fears of energy supply disruptions in the Middle East pushed up bond yields and oil prices.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading flat at 99.084, after strengthening to its highest level since September 7 during the previous session. The rise followed the release of data showing US producer prices increased 0.4% in August, meeting market expectations as energy prices rebounded during the month.

"The safe-haven US dollar gained on risk-aversion flows, helped by higher energy prices that have lifted the chance of a Fed hike next week to 70%," said ‌Tony Sycamore, market ‌analyst at IG in Sydney.

Energy prices snapped a five-day gaining streak, with Brent crude ‌futures ⁠down 0.6% at $106.99 ⁠a barrel in Asian trade.

But both major benchmarks remained above the $100 mark earlier this week, with WTI futures surging across the threshold on Thursday for the first time since May 21.

Against the yen, the US dollar was down 0.2% at 154.105 yen and on track for its second consecutive week of declines, while the euro slipped 0.2% to 178.99 yen after the European Central Bank hiked interest rates on Thursday for the second time this year.

The Japanese currency regained ⁠some strength after data released on Friday showed wholesale inflation rose 7.6% in August ‌from a year earlier, bolstering the case for a rate ‌hike this month.

The Bank of Japan is set to raise interest rates next week, most likely by 25 basis points, and ‌may signal faster future tightening if price pressures heighten risks of an inflation overshoot, four sources familiar with ‌its thinking told Reuters.

The kiwi dollar was up 0.5% at $0.5827, retracing a selloff on Thursday that has put the currency on track for its third week of declines. New Zealand's 10-year government bond yields rose by 15.5 basis points to 5.06% on Friday, extending the biggest two-day jump in borrowing costs since last year's "Liberation Day" selloff.

"New Zealand seems to have been hit harder ‌than most in the latest leg of the bond market sell-off," said Thomas Mathews, head of markets for Asia Pacific at Capital Economics in Wellington.

The Australian dollar ⁠was up 0.2% at $0.7167.

Both ⁠the euro and the British pound were level against the dollar at $1.1609 and $1.3503, respectively.

PRESSURE BUILDS ON FEDERAL RESERVE

Markets are awaiting the release of US CPI later on Friday, one of the last major economic data points released before the Federal Reserve meets next week.

Fed funds futures are pricing an implied 71.1% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the US central bank's next two-day meeting ending on September 16, compared with a 61.2% chance in the previous trading session, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Fixed-income markets remained uneasy after the US Treasury Department tripled the size of its long-dated bond repurchase, with a gauge of bond volatility rising to its highest level in a month. The yield on US 10-year government bonds was up 1.5 basis points at 4.957%.

"10-year US Treasury yields are within striking distance of 5%, as the markets have reassessed the Fed's path higher while term premium is appropriately hovering near pre-GFC levels," Barclays analysts wrote. "We remain of the view that bonds are not cheap yet and catalysts for a rally do not appear imminent."

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was down 0.2% at $77,094.41 while ether was 0.1% lower at $2,457.96.



Saudi Transport Authority: Maritime Sector Proved Resilient Amid Global Trade Disruptions

Transport General Authority President Fawaz Alsahli tours the exhibition held alongside the conference in Jeddah (Transport General Authority)
Transport General Authority President Fawaz Alsahli tours the exhibition held alongside the conference in Jeddah (Transport General Authority)
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Saudi Transport Authority: Maritime Sector Proved Resilient Amid Global Trade Disruptions

Transport General Authority President Fawaz Alsahli tours the exhibition held alongside the conference in Jeddah (Transport General Authority)
Transport General Authority President Fawaz Alsahli tours the exhibition held alongside the conference in Jeddah (Transport General Authority)

Saudi Arabia’s maritime sector has remained resilient amid disruptions to global trade and shipping in 2026, with the kingdom weathering the upheaval with limited impact on the sector.

Essam Alammari, Deputy for Maritime at the Saudi Transport general authority, told Asharq Al-Awsat that integration across the kingdom’s maritime, road, rail and air transport networks had strengthened its ability to navigate regional and international challenges and maintain maritime operations.

Alammari spoke on the sidelines of the Saudi Maritime and Logistics Congress 2026, which opened Wednesday in Jeddah under the patronage of Minister of Transport and Logistic Services Saleh Al-Jasser and Transport General Authority President Fawaz Alsahli.

The event brought together officials, experts and representatives of shipping companies, ports and logistics service providers from Saudi Arabia and abroad.

National strategy

"We were affected like other countries around the world, but thanks to the efforts of Saudi men and women, government support and the National Transport and Logistics Strategy, we were able to demonstrate the sector's resilience," Alammari said.

He stressed the importance of integrating different modes of transport to strengthen the kingdom's logistics network.

Alammari said Saudi Arabia's maritime fleet grew 34% in 2025, with its current carrying capacity reaching approximately 11.8 million tons.

He said the kingdom ranked first in the Middle East and 20th globally in terms of national fleet carrying capacity.

Saudi Arabia also ranked second among Group of 20 (G20) countries in maritime sector growth in 2025, he added, reflecting progress toward the targets of Saudi Vision 2030.

2026 indicators

On the maritime transport sector's performance this year, Alammari said final figures were not yet available because sector indicators are released annually. He expected the results by the end of 2026.

He said Saudi Arabia's maritime economy had seen significant activity recently and expressed optimism about the upcoming annual results and progress toward the sector's targets.

Alammari linked the sector's ability to withstand global disruptions to efforts under the National Transport and Logistics Strategy, a key initiative supporting Saudi Vision 2030.

He reiterated that integration across maritime, road, rail and air transport had strengthened the logistics network's resilience.

International maritime conference

The two-day conference at the Jeddah Superdome is examining the future of maritime trade, shifts in international shipping routes, port competitiveness, investment in maritime infrastructure, supply chain continuity, maritime security and digital transformation.

It is also highlighting growth opportunities in Saudi Arabia's maritime sector and the role of investment and public-private partnerships in developing maritime and logistics services and strengthening the kingdom's position in regional and global trade.

 


Private Sector Fuels Saudi Arabia’s Growth Lead Among G20 Economies

A view of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (SPA)
A view of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (SPA)
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Private Sector Fuels Saudi Arabia’s Growth Lead Among G20 Economies

A view of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (SPA)
A view of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (SPA)

Fueled by a surging private sector and expanding non-oil industries, Saudi Arabia is poised to become the G20’s fastest-growing economy in 2027, overtaking India, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts released last week.

The IMF expects the Saudi economy to grow by 7.9%, ahead of India’s projected 7%, highlighting the Kingdom’s economic transformation as regulatory and legislative reforms unlock new investment opportunities.

Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Investment said the forecast underscores the economy’s strength and resilience while opening new avenues for investment and growth.

Momentum in the private sector and the expansion of non-oil activities are helping steer the Kingdom toward a more diversified, sustainable and investment-friendly economy, it said.

The IMF sharply raised its forecast for Saudi Arabia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 7.9%, from 5.5% in July, an upward revision of 2.4 percentage points that reflects prospects for recovery from the fallout of war and disruptions to trade and energy markets.

The outlook also highlights the structural transformation underway through Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, as non-oil sectors take on a greater role in driving growth and strengthening the economy against global headwinds.

The focus now shifts to whether the Kingdom can sustain that momentum and turn rapid expansion into lasting investment opportunities and jobs.

New sectors drive growth

Saudi Arabia’s projected lead among G20 economies signals a deeper structural shift away from its traditional reliance on oil revenues, according to Fahad Binjumah, an economist and former member of the Saudi Shura Council.

The private sector is emerging as a major engine of growth, bolstered by regulatory and legislative reforms, expanding investment opportunities and the rising contribution of non-oil industries.

Binjumah told Asharq Al-Awsat that the shift marks Saudi Arabia’s gradual transition from direct government stimulus toward a more diversified and productive economy capable of generating growth.

Major government investments have helped lay the groundwork, creating a stronger business environment and opening new sectors to local and foreign investors, he explained.

Strategic projects in tourism, industry, logistics and technology are also generating economic activity well beyond their immediate scope. Investment spending is rippling through supply chains and small and medium-sized businesses, widening commercial opportunities and drawing more parts of the economy into the growth cycle.

But for Binjumah, topping the G20 growth rankings is less important than sustaining that performance over the coming years.

"The main challenge is to turn economic expansion into long-term productivity gains by improving the efficiency of domestic businesses, boosting non-oil exports, developing skills and increasing private investment independent of government spending," he stressed.

Progress on those fronts would propel Saudi Arabia into a more advanced stage of economic diversification, where success is measured not simply by rapid growth but by a more resilient, competitive economy that generates added value and sustainable jobs, he added.

Reforms bolster economic resilience

Saudi Arabia’s rise in G20 growth projections is the product of years of economic reform, not a short-lived boost in any single sector, said Nasser Al-Sahli, president of the Saudi Governance Center.

Legislative changes, easier business procedures, wider investor participation and the restructuring of key sectors have made the economy more attractive to investment and better equipped to turn capital into productive activity, Al-Sahli told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The private sector’s expanding role shows that these reforms are increasingly translating into tangible economic gains, he said.

Their importance has grown amid geopolitical tensions, global trade and energy disruptions, and risks surrounding strategic maritime routes in the region. A broader non-oil economic base is helping Saudi Arabia diversify its income sources and reduce its exposure to external shocks.

"Economic diversification does not mean complete isolation from global developments, but building a productive and investment system capable of adapting to them and maintaining business continuity under different conditions," Al-Sahli said.

The next test will be whether Saudi Arabia’s private sector can move beyond capitalizing on opportunities created by government projects to driving investment expansion independently and sustainably, he went on to say.

That will require stronger productivity and competition, better access to financing, greater innovation and a larger international footprint for Saudi companies.

Al-Sahli said the real significance of Saudi Arabia’s projected G20 lead lies not in the ranking itself but in its ability to turn growth momentum into a more diversified and efficient economy, powered by a private sector that creates high-quality jobs and lasting economic value.

How G20 economies rank

India is forecast to rank second in G20 economic growth in 2027 at 7%, followed by Indonesia at 5.1%, China at 4% and Türkiye at 3.6%, according to IMF figures presented by the Saudi Ministry of Investment.

Argentina ranks sixth at 3.5%, followed by South Korea at 2.8% and the United States at 2.3%. Brazil is projected to grow by 1.9%, Mexico by 1.8%, Canada by 1.7%, Australia by 1.6%, South Africa by 1.3% and the United Kingdom by 1.2%. Germany is forecast to expand by 1.1% and Russia by 0.9%, while France and Japan are each expected to grow by 0.7%.


Saudi Arabia Leads G20 with 7.9% Growth Forecast in 2027

King Abdullah Financial District in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)
King Abdullah Financial District in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Arabia Leads G20 with 7.9% Growth Forecast in 2027

King Abdullah Financial District in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)
King Abdullah Financial District in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi Arabia is projected to lead the G20 countries in economic growth forecasts for 2027, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates. The IMF projects the Kingdom's real GDP to grow by 7.9 percent, the highest rate among the group's economies, as shown in data published by the Saudi Ministry of Investment.

The Fund had previously raised its projections for the Kingdom's real GDP growth to 7.9 percent, compared to 5.5 percent in its July estimates, an increase of 2.4 percentage points.

This revision comes amid expectations of economic activity regaining momentum as regional conflict-related disruptions subside, and oil production and exports gradually return to normal levels.

India ranked second among G20 countries with a projected growth rate of 7 percent, followed by Indonesia at 5.1 percent, then China at 4 percent, and Türkiye at 3.6 percent, according to IMF data reviewed by the Ministry.

Argentina came in sixth with projected growth of 3.5 percent, followed by South Korea at 2.8 percent, then the United States at 2.3 percent. Projections for Brazil stood at 1.9 percent, Mexico at 1.8 percent, Canada at 1.7 percent, Australia at 1.6 percent, South Africa at 1.3 percent, and the United Kingdom at 1.2 percent.

Germany registered projected growth of 1.1 percent, Russia 0.9 percent, while projections for France and Japan were 0.7 percent each, with Italy coming in last at 0.6 percent.

Growth Forecasts Revised

In an assessment of the recovery path, the Fund noted that the diversification of Saudi energy export routes limits the Kingdom's vulnerability to geopolitical disruptions compared to some regional economies. This is due to the the East-West Pipeline's ability to divert some oil exports to Yanbu Port on the Red Sea, away from the Strait of Hormuz.

The IMF's estimates align with the World Bank's projections, which also raised its forecast for Saudi economic growth in 2027 to 7.9 percent, compared to 4.9 percent in its April estimates, while anticipating a 2 percent contraction in GDP during 2026.

Globally, the IMF expects the world economy to grow by 3.1 percent in 2026 before rising to 3.4 percent in 2027, placing Saudi Arabia's growth forecast at more than double the projected global rate for the coming year.

The Saudi Ministry of Investment said that the Kingdom’s leading growth outlook among G20 countries reflects the strength and resilience of its economy and opens up broader prospects for investment and growth.

This is supported by strong private-sector momentum and the expansion of non-oil activities, reinforcing the Kingdom’s shift toward a more diversified, sustainable, and investment-friendly economy.