OPEC+ crude oil output rebounded in October to nearly its pre-Iran war level, driven by a sharp increase in Saudi production despite continued disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia reported its highest output since the war began, helping lift the alliance’s combined production to 41.23 million barrels per day (bpd), according to OPEC’s monthly report released Wednesday.
That represented an increase of approximately 2.04 million bpd from September and brought production to about 97% of the 42.72 million bpd recorded in February, according to Reuters calculations based on OPEC data.
The rebound highlights the ability of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers to restore supplies despite the war’s continuing impact and restrictions on tanker movements through the strategic waterway.
Some producers have worked around the disruptions through alternative shipping arrangements, including ship-to-ship oil transfers, and pipelines that allow crude exports to bypass the strait.
Saudi Arabia Drives Production Increase
Saudi Arabia informed OPEC that its crude output rose to 10.563 million bpd in October, up from approximately 8.372 million bpd in September, an increase of nearly 26%.
That marked its highest level since February, when production reached 10.882 million bpd.
The Kingdom had raised output in February, ahead of US and Israeli strikes on Iran, reflecting its readiness to bolster supplies amid expectations of escalating market disruptions.
The latest figures show that Riyadh substantially increased production in October despite persistent risks to regional oil exports.
Iraq also reported higher output, reaching approximately 4.9 million bpd, its highest level since the conflict began.
However, secondary sources cited by OPEC estimated Iraqi production at 4.491 million bpd, placing it close to its assigned production target.
Russian, Kazakh and Nigerian Output Rises
Russian oil production increased by approximately 41,000 bpd in October from September to 8.668 million bpd, according to secondary-source data in OPEC’s report.
The increase followed months of declining output amid Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, including oil refineries.
US President Donald Trump announced an energy-sector ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine last month, but the agreement failed to hold in any meaningful way.
Nevertheless, a temporary reduction in attacks on Russian refining facilities may have helped support production.
Kazakhstan’s output also increased, rising by approximately 34,000 bpd month on month to 1.887 million bpd.
In Nigeria, crude oil production averaged 1.69 million bpd in October, according to the country’s petroleum regulator, marking the sixth consecutive month in which Nigeria met its OPEC production quota.
Excluding condensates, output stood at approximately 1.51 million bpd, slightly above its quota of 1.5 million bpd.
The regulator attributed the improvement to greater operational efficiency, more consistent production and better transportation of crude from oilfields to export terminals.
OPEC Maintains Demand Forecasts
OPEC left its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2026 and 2027 unchanged, after lowering its demand-growth estimates for six consecutive months.
The organization expects global demand to increase by approximately 180,000 bpd in 2026 and by 2.55 million bpd in 2027, bringing average worldwide consumption to 108.3 million bpd.
The projections come as October’s production figures point to a recovery in Gulf supplies after months of disruptions that forced several producers to reduce output or suspend some exports.
The rebound is particularly significant as OPEC+ prepares to complete a review of its members’ maximum production capacities in the coming days.
The findings will help determine production targets for 2027.
The alliance is scheduled to meet online on November 29 to discuss next year’s output targets, with members facing markedly different circumstances.
While some countries have restored much of their production capacity, others continue to contend with operational constraints and export-related challenges.
