‘Barbenheimer’ Sitting Pretty as Oscar Nominations to Be Unveiled

 Cillian Murphy attends the 29th Annual Critics Choice Awards, in Santa Monica, California, US, January 14, 2024. (Reuters)
Cillian Murphy attends the 29th Annual Critics Choice Awards, in Santa Monica, California, US, January 14, 2024. (Reuters)
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‘Barbenheimer’ Sitting Pretty as Oscar Nominations to Be Unveiled

 Cillian Murphy attends the 29th Annual Critics Choice Awards, in Santa Monica, California, US, January 14, 2024. (Reuters)
Cillian Murphy attends the 29th Annual Critics Choice Awards, in Santa Monica, California, US, January 14, 2024. (Reuters)

Nominations for this year's Oscars will be unveiled on Tuesday, with the "Barbenheimer" juggernaut expected to roll on to the climax of Hollywood's awards season with multiple chances at glory.

After a combined $2.4 billion global box office take, "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" -- two films linked only by their simultaneous release last July -- are seen as locks for a suite of nods for the 96th Academy Awards, which take place on March 10.

"It continues to be their year, and we expect them to dominate the nominations," Pete Hammond, columnist for industry site Deadline, told AFP.

With its clutch of five Golden Globes and momentum on its side, "Oppenheimer" -- Christopher Nolan's masterly portrait of the father of the atomic bomb -- appears to have the edge in the race for best picture, the Academy's top prize.

Greta Gerwig's popular "Barbie" -- a sharp satire about misogyny and female empowerment -- is playing catch-up after an initial burst of awards optimism faded.

The film, which had nine nominations for the Globes, left with just two consolation prizes -- best song and a newly created trophy for box office achievement.

And, said Hammond, it faces an uphill battle to turn its audience gold into major Oscars success.

"Comedies, or something considered lighter, are generally at a disadvantage against something a little heavier," he said.

"So in the world of Barbenheimer, 'Oppenheimer' definitely has the advantage because it's got gravitas; it's important."

Rounding out the best picture category, nominations are widely expected for Martin Scorsese's crime saga "Killers of the Flower Moon" and Venice Film Festival winner "Poor Things," a female-focused take on the Frankenstein myth.

Christmas boarding school tale "The Holdovers" is already being spoken of as a durable seasonal classic, while Leonard Bernstein biopic "Maestro," which sees Bradley Cooper in front and behind the camera, also appears well placed.

The well-received French film "Anatomy of a Fall," which won two Golden Globes including best screenplay, might fare well in a world where voters no longer seem scared of subtitles.

A year for women directors?

Between Justine Triet's "Anatomy," Gerwig's "Barbie" and "Past Lives," a Korean-American drama by Celine Song, the fight for the best picture Oscar could include three works directed by women, a historic first.

Over nine-and-a-half decades of awards, only 19 films by female directors have been nominated for the top prize.

"It could be the biggest year ever for women, in terms of the best picture race," said Hammond.

In the acting categories, the two summer blockbusters seem likely to garner nominations for their stars -- Cillian Murphy as scientist J. Robert Oppenheimer, consumed by the devastating consequences of his creation, and Margot Robbie as a perfect doll tormented by morbid thoughts.

The two films' supporting actors could also be recognized -- Robert Downey Jr shines as a foil to Oppenheimer more concerned with his own political fortunes than understanding quantum physics, while Ryan Gosling is remarkable as Ken.

Da'Vine Joy Randolph appears to be in pole position for best supporting actress honors for her tour-de-force as the school cook in Alexander Payne's 1970s-set "The Holdovers."

Joining Margot Robbie in the best actress race will likely be Emma Stone for her no-holds-barred turn in "Poor Things," and Lily Gladstone, who plays a Native American whose tribe's oil wealth is threatened by a series of murders in "Killers of the Flower Moon."

Her scheming (or is he just stupid?) on-screen husband Leonardo DiCaprio might make the best actor list, but it's a tough ask in a crowded year.

In addition to Murphy and Cooper, nominees could also include Paul Giamatti's uptight history teacher in "The Holdovers," Jeffrey Wright's unwittingly popular author in "American Fiction" and Colman Domingo for his turn as a charismatic, civil rights activist in "Rustin'"

The unveiling of the Oscar nominations will begin at 530 am (1330 GMT) on Tuesday.



Trump Threatens a 100% Tariff on Foreign-Made Films, Saying the Movie Industry in the US Is Dying

US President Donald Trump (Reuters)
US President Donald Trump (Reuters)
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Trump Threatens a 100% Tariff on Foreign-Made Films, Saying the Movie Industry in the US Is Dying

US President Donald Trump (Reuters)
US President Donald Trump (Reuters)

President Donald Trump is opening a new salvo in his tariff war, targeting films made outside the US.

In a post Sunday night on his Truth Social platform, Trump said he has authorized the Department of Commerce and the Office of the US Trade Representative to slap a 100% tariff "on any and all Movies coming into our Country that are produced in Foreign Lands."

"The Movie Industry in America is DYING a very fast death," he wrote, complaining that other countries "are offering all sorts of incentives to draw" filmmakers and studios away from the US. "This is a concerted effort by other Nations and, therefore, a National Security threat. It is, in addition to everything else, messaging and propaganda!"

The White House said Monday that it was figuring out how to comply with the president's wishes.

"Although no final decisions on foreign film tariffs have been made, the Administration is exploring all options to deliver on President Trump’s directive to safeguard our country’s national and economic security while Making Hollywood Great Again," said spokesperson Kush Desai.

It’s common for both large and small films to include production in the US and in other countries. Big-budget movies like the upcoming "Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning," for instance, are shot around the world.

Incentive programs for years have influenced where movies are shot, increasingly driving film production out of California and to other states and countries with favorable tax incentives, like Canada and the United Kingdom.

Yet Trump's tariffs are designed to lead consumers toward American products. And in movie theaters, American-produced movies overwhelmingly dominate the domestic marketplace.

China has ramped up its domestic movie production, culminating in the animated blockbuster "Ne Zha 2" grossing more than $2 billion this year. But even then, its sales came almost entirely from mainland China. In North America, it earned just $20.9 million.

In New Zealand, where successive governments have offered rebates and incentives in recent years to draw Hollywood films to the country, the film industry has generated billions of dollars in tourism revenue driven by the "Lord of the Rings" and "Hobbit" films, which featured the country’s pristine and scenic vistas.  

More recently, the blockbuster "Minecraft" movie was filmed entirely in New Zealand, and US productions in 2023 delivered $1.3 billion New Zealand dollars ($777 million) to the country in return for NZ$200 million in subsidies, according to government figures.

New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said he was awaiting more details of Trump’s measures before commenting on them but would continue to pitch to filmmakers abroad, including in India’s Bollywood. "We’ve got an absolutely world class industry," he said. "This is the best place to make movies, period, in the world."

The Motion Picture Association, which represents major US film studios and streaming services, didn’t immediately respond to messages Sunday evening.

The MPA’s data shows how much Hollywood exports have dominated cinemas. According to the MPA, the American movies produced $22.6 billion in exports and $15.3 billion in trade surplus in 2023.

Trump, a Republican, has made good on the "tariff man" label he gave himself years ago, slapping new taxes on goods made in countries around the globe. That includes a 145% tariff on Chinese goods and a 10% baseline tariff on goods from other countries, with even higher levies threatened.

By unilaterally imposing tariffs, Trump has exerted extraordinary influence over the flow of commerce, creating political risks and pulling the market in different directions. There are tariffs on autos, steel and aluminum, with more imports, including pharmaceutical drugs, set to be subject to new tariffs in the weeks ahead.

Trump has long voiced concern about movie production moving overseas.

Shortly before he took office, he announced that he had tapped actors Mel Gibson, Jon Voight and Sylvester Stallone to serve as "special ambassadors" to Hollywood to bring it "BACK — BIGGER, BETTER, AND STRONGER THAN EVER BEFORE!"

US film and television production has been hampered in recent years, with setbacks from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Hollywood guild strikes of 2023 and the recent wildfires in the Los Angeles area. Overall production in the US was down 26% last year compared with 2021, according to data from ProdPro, which tracks production.

The group's annual survey of executives, which asked about preferred filming locations, found no location in the US made the top five, according to the Hollywood Reporter. Toronto, the UK, Vancouver, Central Europe and Australia came out on top, with California placing sixth, Georgia seventh, New Jersey eighth and New York ninth.

The problem is especially acute in California. In the greater Los Angeles area, production last year was down 5.6% from 2023 according to FilmLA, second only to 2020, during the peak of the coronavirus pandemic. Last, October, Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, proposed expanding California’s Film & Television Tax Credit program to $750 million annually, up from $330 million.

Other US cities like Atlanta, New York, Chicago and San Francisco have also used aggressive tax incentives to lure film and TV productions. Those programs can take the form of cash grants, as in Texas, or tax credits, which Georgia and New Mexico offer.

"Other nations have been stealing the movie-making capabilities from the United States," Trump told reporters at the White House on Sunday night after returning from a weekend in Florida. "If they’re not willing to make a movie inside the United States we should have a tariff on movies that come in."