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Oscars Night: Five Things to Watch

Oscars statue cutouts rest on a table along the red carpet ahead of the 96th Academy Awards Friday, March 8, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP)
Oscars statue cutouts rest on a table along the red carpet ahead of the 96th Academy Awards Friday, March 8, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP)
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Oscars Night: Five Things to Watch

Oscars statue cutouts rest on a table along the red carpet ahead of the 96th Academy Awards Friday, March 8, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP)
Oscars statue cutouts rest on a table along the red carpet ahead of the 96th Academy Awards Friday, March 8, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP)

Will "Oppenheimer" make Oscars history? Who will win the closely contested best actress race? And could Martin Scorsese go home empty-handed again?

Variety awards editor Clayton Davis suggests five things to watch out for this Sunday at the 96th Academy Awards:

'Oppenheimer' record-breaker?

There is no doubt Christopher Nolan's atomic blockbuster "Oppenheimer" will win multiple Oscars. But how many?

Even a "really conservative" eight would be the most for a film since "Slumdog Millionaire" in 2009, explained Davis.

The record of 11 is probably just out of reach. But 10 -- achievable if it wins close races like best actor and best adapted screenplay -- would put it tied with "West Side Story" (1961).

After years of small, indie hits taking best picture, "Oppenheimer" would be the highest-grossing winner since "Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" in 2004, and the third-highest of all time (also behind "Titanic").

It seems certain to be the top grossing film in history to win Oscars for its actors, in Robert Downey Jr and -- potentially -- Cillian Murphy.

And it would be only the second film to win best picture produced by a married couple -- Nolan and his wife Emma Thomas -- after "Driving Miss Daisy."

'Barbie' avalanche

While not likely to win more than a couple of Oscars, "Barbie" will be omnipresent throughout Sunday's gala.

Both Billie Eilish and Ryan Gosling are set to perform Oscar-nominated songs from the movie, and host Jimmy Kimmel is certain to pepper his opening monologue with jokes about the smash hit comedy.

"I can't imagine an entire evening that doesn't reference 'Barbie' multiple, if not hundreds of times," joked Davis.

Expect quips about the so-called "snubs" for Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie, who were not nominated for directing and starring in the year's highest-grossing film, and many references to all things pink.

"It's going to be an avalanche of Barbie content. That might annoy a couple people," said Davis.

Best actress nail-biter

No major race is harder to predict than best actress, where Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone are neck-and-neck among the pundits' picks.

Davis is calling it for "Killers of the Flower Moon" star Gladstone, but admits his answer changes "at different moments."

As the first Native American actor to win, Gladstone would provide the gala with a historic moment, though some voters don't see her as the true "lead" of a film in which Leonardo DiCaprio dominates the three-and-a-half hours of screen time.

Stone's performance in Greek auteur Yorgos Lanthimos's "Poor Things" is popular among the Academy's "international vote" -- but could suffer if some of that bloc splinters off for Sandra Hueller, of French courtroom drama "Anatomy of a Fall."

"This is where it comes down to math," said Davis.

Scorsese's losses

Martin Scorsese, one of the greatest living directors, is hardly short of accolades.

But if Gladstone loses, "Killers" will likely become the third of Scorsese's movies to enter an Oscars with a whopping 10 nominations, and yet leave empty-handed.

Scorsese suffered the same with "The Irishman" and "Gangs of New York."

"It's like 'first world problems,' to have 30 Oscar nominations and you didn't win any of them," joked Davis. "But that is a lot."

America, America

As usual, the list of Oscars presenters is a who's who of Hollywood.

At a press conference this week, organizers revealed that five previous winners of each acting category will take to the stage to introduce the five nominees this year.

That could mean Jennifer Lawrence introducing Emma Stone, Matthew McConaughey announcing Paul Giamatti, and Tim Robbins praising Robert Downey Jr.

It is an approach borrowed from the 2009 Oscars, and brings a "lovely connection and that human interaction," said this year's showrunner Raj Kapoor.

The combination Davis is most hoping for?

"Rita Moreno is a presenter. And putting two and two together, there's no reason why she doesn't introduce America Ferrera's nomination for 'Barbie' and say 'America, America!'"

"I'm gonna cry. I'm gonna be in tears. And I can't wait."

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Entertainment

‘Wicked’ and ‘Gladiator’ Make Gravity-Defying Theater Debuts

People wait to watch a screening of the film "Wicked" at the TCL Chinese Theater in Los Angeles, California, US, November 23, 2024. (Reuters)
People wait to watch a screening of the film "Wicked" at the TCL Chinese Theater in Los Angeles, California, US, November 23, 2024. (Reuters)
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‘Wicked’ and ‘Gladiator’ Make Gravity-Defying Theater Debuts

People wait to watch a screening of the film "Wicked" at the TCL Chinese Theater in Los Angeles, California, US, November 23, 2024. (Reuters)
People wait to watch a screening of the film "Wicked" at the TCL Chinese Theater in Los Angeles, California, US, November 23, 2024. (Reuters)

With a combined $270 million in worldwide ticket sales, “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” breathed fresh life into a box office that has struggled lately, leading to one of the busiest moviegoing weekends of the year.

Jon M. Chu’s lavish big-budget musical “Wicked,” starring Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo, debuted with $114 million domestically and $164.2 million globally for Universal Pictures, according to studio estimates Sunday. That made it the third-biggest opening weekend of the year, behind only “Deadpool & Wolverine” and “Inside Out 2.” It’s also a record for a Broadway musical adaptation.

Ridley Scott’s “Gladiator II,” a sequel to his 2000 best picture-winning original, launched with $55.5 million in ticket sales. With a price tag of around $250 million to produce it, “Gladiator II” was a big bet by Paramount Pictures to return to the Coliseum with a largely new cast, led by Denzel Washington and Paul Mescal. While it opened with a touch less than the $60 million predicted in domestic ticket sales, “Gladiator II” has performed well overseas. It added $50.5 million internationally.

Going into the weekend, box office was down about 11% from last year and some 25% from pre-pandemic times. That meant this week's two headline films led a much-needed resurgence for theaters. With “Moana 2” releasing Wednesday, Hollywood might be looking at historic sales over the Thanksgiving holiday.

“This weekend’s two strong openers are invigorating a box office that fell apart after a good summer,” said David A. Gross, a film consultant who publishes a newsletter for Franchise Entertainment.

The collision of the two movies led to some echoes of the “Barbenheimer” effect of last year, when “Barbie" and “Oppenheimer” launched simultaneously. The nickname this time, “Glicked,” wasn’t quite as catchy and the cultural imprint was also notably less. Few people sought out a double feature this time. The domestic grosses in 2023 – $162 million for “Barbie” and $82 million for “Oppenheimer” – were also higher.

But the counter-programming effect was still potent for “Wicked” and “Gladiator II,” which likewise split broadly along gender lines. And it was again the female-leaning release – “Wicked,” like “Barbie” before it – that easily won the weekend. About 72% of ticket buyers for “Wicked” were female, while 61% of those seeing “Gladiator II” were male.

And while “Barbenheimer” benefitted enormously from meme-spread word-of-mouth, both “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” leaned on all-out marketing blitzes.

Both movies pulled out all the stops in global advertising campaigns that spanned everything from “Wicked” Mattel dolls (some of which led to an awkward recall) to an Airbnb cross-promotion with the actual Colosseum in Rome. For “Gladiator II,” Paramount even took the unusual step of simultaneously running a one-minute trailer on more than 4,000 TV networks, radio station and digital platforms.

Though “Wicked” will face some direct competition from “Moana 2,” it would seem to be better set up for a long and lucrative run in theaters. Even at 2 hours and 40 minutes, the film has had mostly stellar reviews. Audiences gave it an “A” on CinemaScore. The reception for “Wicked” has been strong enough that Oscar prognosticators expect it to be a contender for best picture at the Academy Awards, among other categories.

Producers, perhaps sensing a hit, also took the step of splitting “Wicked” in two. Part two, already filmed, is due out next November. Each “Wicked” installation cost around $150 million to make.

“Gladiator II” has also enjoyed good reviews, particularly for Washington's charismatic performance. Audience scores, though, were weaker, with ticket buyers giving it a “B” on CinemaScore. “Gladiator II” will make up for some of that, however, with robust international sales. It launched in many overseas markets a week ago, earning $87 million before landing in North America.