Oscars Night: Five Things to Watch

 Oscars statue cutouts rest on a table along the red carpet ahead of the 96th Academy Awards Friday, March 8, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP)
Oscars statue cutouts rest on a table along the red carpet ahead of the 96th Academy Awards Friday, March 8, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP)
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Oscars Night: Five Things to Watch

 Oscars statue cutouts rest on a table along the red carpet ahead of the 96th Academy Awards Friday, March 8, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP)
Oscars statue cutouts rest on a table along the red carpet ahead of the 96th Academy Awards Friday, March 8, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP)

Will "Oppenheimer" make Oscars history? Who will win the closely contested best actress race? And could Martin Scorsese go home empty-handed again?

Variety awards editor Clayton Davis suggests five things to watch out for this Sunday at the 96th Academy Awards:

'Oppenheimer' record-breaker?

There is no doubt Christopher Nolan's atomic blockbuster "Oppenheimer" will win multiple Oscars. But how many?

Even a "really conservative" eight would be the most for a film since "Slumdog Millionaire" in 2009, explained Davis.

The record of 11 is probably just out of reach. But 10 -- achievable if it wins close races like best actor and best adapted screenplay -- would put it tied with "West Side Story" (1961).

After years of small, indie hits taking best picture, "Oppenheimer" would be the highest-grossing winner since "Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" in 2004, and the third-highest of all time (also behind "Titanic").

It seems certain to be the top grossing film in history to win Oscars for its actors, in Robert Downey Jr and -- potentially -- Cillian Murphy.

And it would be only the second film to win best picture produced by a married couple -- Nolan and his wife Emma Thomas -- after "Driving Miss Daisy."

'Barbie' avalanche

While not likely to win more than a couple of Oscars, "Barbie" will be omnipresent throughout Sunday's gala.

Both Billie Eilish and Ryan Gosling are set to perform Oscar-nominated songs from the movie, and host Jimmy Kimmel is certain to pepper his opening monologue with jokes about the smash hit comedy.

"I can't imagine an entire evening that doesn't reference 'Barbie' multiple, if not hundreds of times," joked Davis.

Expect quips about the so-called "snubs" for Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie, who were not nominated for directing and starring in the year's highest-grossing film, and many references to all things pink.

"It's going to be an avalanche of Barbie content. That might annoy a couple people," said Davis.

Best actress nail-biter

No major race is harder to predict than best actress, where Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone are neck-and-neck among the pundits' picks.

Davis is calling it for "Killers of the Flower Moon" star Gladstone, but admits his answer changes "at different moments."

As the first Native American actor to win, Gladstone would provide the gala with a historic moment, though some voters don't see her as the true "lead" of a film in which Leonardo DiCaprio dominates the three-and-a-half hours of screen time.

Stone's performance in Greek auteur Yorgos Lanthimos's "Poor Things" is popular among the Academy's "international vote" -- but could suffer if some of that bloc splinters off for Sandra Hueller, of French courtroom drama "Anatomy of a Fall."

"This is where it comes down to math," said Davis.

Scorsese's losses

Martin Scorsese, one of the greatest living directors, is hardly short of accolades.

But if Gladstone loses, "Killers" will likely become the third of Scorsese's movies to enter an Oscars with a whopping 10 nominations, and yet leave empty-handed.

Scorsese suffered the same with "The Irishman" and "Gangs of New York."

"It's like 'first world problems,' to have 30 Oscar nominations and you didn't win any of them," joked Davis. "But that is a lot."

America, America

As usual, the list of Oscars presenters is a who's who of Hollywood.

At a press conference this week, organizers revealed that five previous winners of each acting category will take to the stage to introduce the five nominees this year.

That could mean Jennifer Lawrence introducing Emma Stone, Matthew McConaughey announcing Paul Giamatti, and Tim Robbins praising Robert Downey Jr.

It is an approach borrowed from the 2009 Oscars, and brings a "lovely connection and that human interaction," said this year's showrunner Raj Kapoor.

The combination Davis is most hoping for?

"Rita Moreno is a presenter. And putting two and two together, there's no reason why she doesn't introduce America Ferrera's nomination for 'Barbie' and say 'America, America!'"

"I'm gonna cry. I'm gonna be in tears. And I can't wait."



Gl-icked? Movie Theaters Pin Hopes on Big 'Wicked,' 'Gladiator' Weekend

'Gladiator II' has benefited from a long, expensive marketing campaign. Chris DELMAS / AFP
'Gladiator II' has benefited from a long, expensive marketing campaign. Chris DELMAS / AFP
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Gl-icked? Movie Theaters Pin Hopes on Big 'Wicked,' 'Gladiator' Weekend

'Gladiator II' has benefited from a long, expensive marketing campaign. Chris DELMAS / AFP
'Gladiator II' has benefited from a long, expensive marketing campaign. Chris DELMAS / AFP

US movie theaters are hoping the lightning-in-a-bottle magic of last year's "Barbenheimer" phenomenon can strike again this weekend, with the simultaneous release of two of 2024's most hyped films: "Wicked" and "Gladiator II."
"Wicked" is the movie adaptation of the hit Broadway musical, starring pop sensation Ariana Grande, while "Gladiator II" marks Ridley Scott's return to ancient Rome, 24 years after his epic original won the best picture Oscar.
Whether audiences will embrace the tongue-in-cheek "Glicked" (or "Wickiator") memes being hopefully circulated by marketing departments -- or even dress up in witch hats and togas -- remains to be seen.
But cinema lobbies and shopping malls across the country are being daubed in the pink-and-green shades of the "Wicked" witches, and kitted out with cardboard miniature Colosseums, ahead of a period that analysts say will be crucial for the industry, AFP said.
"I am certain that this is going to be the biggest Thanksgiving the industry has ever seen," said Jordan Hohman, an executive at Phoenix Theatres.
"Wicked" alone is "the biggest opening film in terms of advance sale tickets" in the US chain's 24-year history, currently pacing 63 percent ahead of "Barbie," added president Cory Jacobson.
While rival Hollywood studios have traditionally been wary of launching two major films on the same weekend, the record-breaking summer of 2023 showed it can be mutually beneficial -- with the right movies.
Like "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer," the female-skewing "Wicked" and male-focussed "Gladiator II" are "oriented to different audiences," said analyst David A. Gross, of Franchise Entertainment Research.
"Wicked" has inspired promotional tie-ins like a makeup line and a cupcake kit, while "Gladiator" ads have been ubiquitous during NFL telecasts.
"There is zero issue in terms of stepping on each other's feet," said Gross.
Still, matching the heady heights of "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" will be a tough ask. Those films took $245 million combined on their opening weekend in North America alone.
"Barbenheimer was an example of two films massively over-performing... an unexpected best-case scenario," cautioned Daniel Lora, senior VP of content strategy for Boxoffice Media.
But part of the industry's current bullishness comes from another massive film, Disney's "Moana 2," which will join "Wicked" and "Gladiator II" in multiplexes just a week later.
"I don't think this is a two-picture experience. I think it's a three-picture experience," said Jacobson.
Marketing blitz
Should the next few weeks live up to hopes, it will come at a much-needed time for Hollywood.
Despite a profitable summer featuring hit sequels like "Inside Out 2" and "Deadpool & Wolverine," 2024 has been a mixed bag for an industry still dreaming of a return to pre-pandemic numbers.
The first five months of the year were hampered by a thin release schedule, stemming from the production delays caused by Hollywood strikes and Covid.
The fall has also been a disappointment, with box office dud "Joker: Folie A Deux" foremost among a series of flops and middling releases.
But the early signs for this weekend look promising.
"Gladiator II" opened in dozens of other countries last week, taking a whopping $87 million overseas. Paramount will be hoping for similar numbers in the US this weekend.
"Wicked," from Universal, the studio behind "Oppenheimer," is predicted to take north of $100 million this weekend in North America alone.
Both movies have benefited from long, expensive marketing campaigns.
At a major Las Vegas movie theater convention in April, Paramount began their annual presentation with an executive riding into the Caesars Palace arena on a chariot flanked by Roman soldiers.
Universal's presentation ended with thousands of plastic flowers held aloft by audience members to create a giant green-and-pink "Wicked" themed electronic lightshow.
Eight months later, both studios will learn if those strategies have converted into ticket sales.
"When something really catches fire, and it's not just a marketing campaign flogging it, honestly it can just take off and go higher than anybody can predict," said Gross.
"So let's see what happens."