"One Battle After Another" and "Sinners" go head-to-head in Los Angeles on Sunday at the Screen Actors Guild's prize gala, in the last major awards ceremony before the Oscars.
The top honor at the newly rebranded Actor Awards recognizes the ensemble cast of a film -- a decision that sometimes, but not always, presages Oscars best picture glory.
"One Battle After Another," Paul Thomas Anderson's political thriller starring Leonardo DiCaprio as a pot-addled former revolutionary forced back into the game when his teenage daughter goes missing, leads the pack with seven nominations.
Not far behind is Ryan Coogler's "Sinners," a vampire fable about America's difficult racial history, with five nominations.
For industry insiders, "Sinners" may have the upper hand with SAG-AFTRA, which represents more than 160,000 members -- but that may not hold true in two weeks for the Academy Awards.
"I think 'Sinners' is almost certainly going to win the Best Ensemble SAG Award," Scott Feinberg, awards columnist for The Hollywood Reporter, told AFP.
"I'm not as confident that it's going to win the best picture Oscar. It might, but those two awards have gone to different films just about as often as they have gone to the same film."
- Chalamet shoo-in -
In the individual categories, Feinberg said Timothee Chalamet is a clear frontrunner for best actor honors for his portrayal of an obsessive 1950s table tennis star in "Marty Supreme."
"He won last year for (Bob Dylan biopic) "A Complete Unknown"... so we know that this group really likes him," he said.
"And this year he's expected to win the Oscar."
Chalamet faces competition from DiCaprio, Michael B. Jordan for his twin lead role in "Sinners," Ethan Hawke for his portrayal of a washed-up lyricist in "Blue Moon" and Jesse Plemons, who plays a likeable conspiracy theorist in "Bugonia."
On the women's side, all bets are on Jessie Buckley, the grief-stricken wife of William Shakespeare mourning their son in "Hamnet" who has swept this awards season.
Others in the category are Rose Byrne for playing a struggling mother in "If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You," Kate Hudson as the supportive partner of an emerging singer in "Song Sung Blue," Chase Infiniti as DiCaprio's daughter in "One Battle After Another" and Emma Stone for her portrayal of a kidnapped pharma boss in "Bugonia."
- Unpredictable -
The picture is a little cloudier for actors in a supporting role, said Feinberg, with both male and female categories up for grabs.
"Different people have been recognized in those categories at almost every award show," he said.
The Golden Globe for best supporting actress went to Teyana Taylor, DiCaprio's revolutionary love interest in "One Battle After Another," Amy Madigan snapped up a Critics Choice Award for "Weapons" and the BAFTA went to Wunmi Mosaku for "Sinners."
Ariana Grande ("Wicked: For Good") and Odessa A'zion ("Marty Supreme") complete the female lineup.
For the men, the Critics Choice Awards recognized Jacob Elordi for "Frankenstein," the BAFTA went to Sean Penn ("One Battle After Another") and the Golden Globe went to Stellan Skarsgard in "Sentimental Value," who did not even get a SAG nod.
The other three nominees are Benicio del Toro ("One Battle After Another"), Paul Mescal as Shakespeare in "Hamnet" and Miles Caton from "Sinners."
"Those categories are all over the place," said Feinberg.
In television, Netflix limited series "Adolescence," medical drama "The Pitt" and Apple's Hollywood satire "The Studio" are poised to repeat their Emmys success.
Catherine O'Hara, who died suddenly in January, could win the award for best actress in a comedy series for "The Studio."
The ceremony, which will honor Harrison Ford for his career, will be hosted by Kristen Bell and streamed live on Netflix.
The 32nd Screen Actors Guild Awards will take place at 5:00 pm in Los Angeles (0100 GMT Monday).
