Nike Sinks as Gloomy Sales Forecast Fans Growth Concerns

The Nike swoosh logo is seen outside the store on 5th Ave in New York, New York, US, March 19, 2019. (Reuters)
The Nike swoosh logo is seen outside the store on 5th Ave in New York, New York, US, March 19, 2019. (Reuters)
TT

Nike Sinks as Gloomy Sales Forecast Fans Growth Concerns

The Nike swoosh logo is seen outside the store on 5th Ave in New York, New York, US, March 19, 2019. (Reuters)
The Nike swoosh logo is seen outside the store on 5th Ave in New York, New York, US, March 19, 2019. (Reuters)

Nike shares slumped 15% premarket on Friday as a forecast for a surprise drop in annual sales amplified investor concerns about the pace of the sportswear giant's efforts to stem market share losses to upstart brands such as On and Hoka.

The company on Thursday projected a mid-single-digit percentage fall in fiscal 2025 revenue, compared to analysts' estimates of a near 1% rise, dragging shares of rivals and sportswear retailers across Europe, UK and US on Friday, Reuters reported.

British sportswear retailer JD Sports fell as much as 6.6% and Germany's Puma lost 4%, while Adidas was flat after briefly rising nearly 2%.

"Nike shares are headed for a stay in the proverbial penalty box until new product innovations actually start to manifest themselves and management regains investor trust," Wedbush analyst Tom Nikic said in a note.

To be sure, Nike has cut back on oversupplied brands including Air Force 1 to curb a worsening sales decline as part of a $2 billion cost-cutting plan launched late last year.

Nike is set to roll out this year an Air Max version and Pegasus 41 with full-length foam midsole made from ReactX to boost sustainability, responding to concerns over stagnating innovation.

The company was "also accelerating planned reductions for our three largest franchises ... while we have work to do, we are very focused on scaling the newness to offset this planned reduction," CEO John Donahoe said on a post-earnings call.

Newer sporting goods brands, including Hoka, Asics, New Balance and On, accounted for 35% of global market share in 2023 compared to the 20% held over the 2013-2020 period, according to a RBC research report released in June.

"They know where the problems are, but they're having trouble right now generating demand and it is going to be a transition period that is going to take some time in different markets," Morningstar analyst David Swartz said.

Nike's US market share in the sports footwear category fell to 34.97% in 2023 from 35.37% in 2022, and 35.40% in 2021, according to GlobalData.

At least six brokerages downgraded the stock and 15 cut their price targets on Nike.

Nike's shares were trading at 25.13 times profit estimates while On and Deckers were trading at 37.41 and 31.13 times earnings expectations.



LVMH Shares Drop after Missing Second-quarter Estimates

A man walks past a shop of fashion house Dior in Paris, France, April 15, 2024. REUTERS/Manon Cruz/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
A man walks past a shop of fashion house Dior in Paris, France, April 15, 2024. REUTERS/Manon Cruz/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
TT

LVMH Shares Drop after Missing Second-quarter Estimates

A man walks past a shop of fashion house Dior in Paris, France, April 15, 2024. REUTERS/Manon Cruz/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
A man walks past a shop of fashion house Dior in Paris, France, April 15, 2024. REUTERS/Manon Cruz/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

Shares in LVMH (LVMH.PA) fell as much as 6.5% in early Wednesday trade and were on track for their biggest one-day drop since October 2023 after second-quarter sales growth at the French luxury goods giant missed analysts' consensus estimate.

The world's biggest luxury group said late Tuesday its quarterly sales rose 1% year on year to 20.98 billion euros ($22.76 billion), undershooting the 21.6 billion expected on average by analysts polled by LSEG.

At 1000 GMT, LVMH's shares were down 4.5%.

The earnings miss weighed on other luxury stocks, with Hermes (HRMS.PA), down around 2% and Kering (PRTP.PA), off 3%.

Kering is scheduled to report second-quarter sales after the market close and Hermes reports on Thursday, Reuters reported.

Jittery investors are looking for evidence that the industry will pick up from a recent slowdown, as inflation-hit shoppers hold off from splashing out on designer fashion.

JPMorgan analyst Chiara Battistini cut full year profit forecasts by 2-3% for the group, citing softer trends at LVMH's fashion and leather goods division, home to Louis Vuitton and Dior.

"The soft print is likely to add to ongoing investors’ concerns on the sector more broadly in our view, confirming that even best-in-class players like LVMH cannot be immune from the challenging backdrop," said Battistini in a note to clients.

The weakness of the yen, which has prompted a flood of Chinese shoppers to Japan seeking bargains on luxury goods, added pressure to margins, another source of concern.

Equita cut 2024 sales estimates for LVMH by 3% - attributing 1% to currency fluctuations - and lowered its second half organic sales estimate to 7% growth from 10% growth previously.

The lack of visibility for the second half beyond the easing of comparative figures - as the Chinese post-pandemic lockdown bounce tapered off a year ago - is unlikely to improve investor sentiment to the luxury sector, Citi analyst Thomas Chauvet said in an email to clients.

"No miracle with the luxury bellwether; sector likely to remain out of favour," he wrote.

Jefferies analysts said the miss came as investors eye Chinese shoppers for their potential to "resume their pre-COVID role as the locomotive of industry growth and debate when Western consumers will have fully digested their COVID overspend".

LVMH shares have been volatile since the luxury slowdown emerged, and are down about 20% over the past year, with middle-class shoppers in China, the world's No. 2 economy, a key focus as they rein in purchases at home amid a property slump and job insecurity.

LVMH offered some reassurance, with finance chief Jean-Jacques Guiony telling analysts during a call on Tuesday that Chinese customers were "holding up quite well," while business with US and European customers was "slightly better".