Opposition Roadmap for Undoing Erdogan’s Legacy

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, presidential candidate of Türkiye’s main opposition alliance, greets his supporters during a rally ahead of the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections, in Tekirdag, Türkiye April 27, 2023. (Reuters)
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, presidential candidate of Türkiye’s main opposition alliance, greets his supporters during a rally ahead of the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections, in Tekirdag, Türkiye April 27, 2023. (Reuters)
TT
20

Opposition Roadmap for Undoing Erdogan’s Legacy

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, presidential candidate of Türkiye’s main opposition alliance, greets his supporters during a rally ahead of the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections, in Tekirdag, Türkiye April 27, 2023. (Reuters)
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, presidential candidate of Türkiye’s main opposition alliance, greets his supporters during a rally ahead of the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections, in Tekirdag, Türkiye April 27, 2023. (Reuters)

Türkiye’s multi-faceted opposition alliance wants to undo President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's two-decade legacy of highly centralized and religiously conservative rule.

Here is a look at its plan of action should it win next Sunday's parliamentary and presidential vote.

End 'one-man regime'

Opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu has portrayed his six-party alliance, which includes liberals, nationalists and religious conservatives, as a force for democratic change.

The 74-year-old former civil servant has pledged to "bring democracy to this country by changing the one-man regime".

The alliance vows to abandon the presidential system Erdogan introduced after winning a hard-fought constitutional referendum in 2017.

Instead, it wants lawmakers to elect a prime minister and for parliament to have oversight over ministries.

The president would be limited to a single seven-year term.

"Changing the political system will not be easy," said Bertil Oder, a professor of constitutional law at Istanbul's Koc University.

Such changes require a three-fifths majority in parliament, which the opposition will struggle to win on May 14, he pointed out.

Release prisoners

Kilicdaroglu says his first order of business will be to release some of the most high-profile opposition figures jailed under Erdogan.

These include the philanthropist Osman Kavala and the Kurdish leader Selahattin Demirtas, whose freedom has been long-sought by the West.

The opposition pledges to restore "independent and impartial" courts, which Erdogan stacked with allies after surviving a bloody coup attempt in 2016.

It also wants to revive freedom of expression and give independence to the media, now almost completely controlled by the government and its business allies.

"You will be able to criticize me very easily," Kilicdaroglu once quipped, pledging to abolish the criminal offence of "insulting the president".

Defend 'all women'

Representing the traditionally secular CHP party of Türkiye’s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, Kilicdaroglu has worked hard to gain the trust of religiously conservative women who wear the headscarf.

Kilicdaroglu has pledged to make the right to stay veiled in public guaranteed by law, to show he has no intention of reversing religious freedoms introduced by Erdogan.

"We will defend the rights of all women," Kilicdaroglu said, vowing to "respect everyone's beliefs, lifestyles and identities".

Kilicdaroglu also wants to rejoin the Istanbul Convention, a European treaty aimed at combating gender-based violence from which Türkiye withdrew under Erdogan's orders in 2021.

Restore economic orthodoxy

The opposition vows an immediate return to economic orthodoxy and a break with Erdogan's "Turkish economy model".

Erdogan's refusal to fight inflation by raising interest rates has sparked the worst economic crisis of his rule.

The official annual inflation rate touched 85 percent last year. Independent economists believe the real rate could have been twice as high, erasing gains of a new middle class created during Erdogan's first decade in power.

But a return to prosperity might take time, requiring the resuscitation of state institutions that became emaciated during Erdogan's era of centralized control.

"Whoever wins the election, Türkiye’s economy is unlikely to experience a quick recovery," said Erdal Alcin, a professor of international economics at Germany's Konstanz University.

Make peace

The opposition knows that Türkiye has irritated its NATO allies by forging a privileged relationship with Russia since 2016. It wants to restore trust with the West while maintaining a "balanced dialogue" with Moscow to end the war in Ukraine.

Ahmet Unal Cevikoz, the head of international relations in Kilicdaroglu's party, is also pushing for "full membership of the European Union", which has long remained on hold.

But the priority, said Cevikoz, is on reconciling with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad -- an essential condition for the "voluntary" return of 3.7 million Syrian refugees living in Türkiye.



Facing Calls to Disarm, Hezbollah Ready to Discuss Weapons if Israel Withdraws, Senior Official Says 

Mourners attend the funeral of Hezbollah fighters, killed before the November 27 ceasefire with Israel, in southern Lebanese village of al-Taybeh, near the border with Israel on April 6, 2025. (AFP)
Mourners attend the funeral of Hezbollah fighters, killed before the November 27 ceasefire with Israel, in southern Lebanese village of al-Taybeh, near the border with Israel on April 6, 2025. (AFP)
TT
20

Facing Calls to Disarm, Hezbollah Ready to Discuss Weapons if Israel Withdraws, Senior Official Says 

Mourners attend the funeral of Hezbollah fighters, killed before the November 27 ceasefire with Israel, in southern Lebanese village of al-Taybeh, near the border with Israel on April 6, 2025. (AFP)
Mourners attend the funeral of Hezbollah fighters, killed before the November 27 ceasefire with Israel, in southern Lebanese village of al-Taybeh, near the border with Israel on April 6, 2025. (AFP)

As calls for Lebanon's Hezbollah to disarm gain momentum, a senior Hezbollah official told Reuters the group is ready to hold talks with the Lebanese president about its weapons if Israel withdraws from south Lebanon and stops its strikes, Reuters reported on Wednesday.

The prospect of talks aimed at securing Hezbollah's disarmament - unimaginable when it was at the zenith of its power just two years ago - underlines dramatic shifts in the Middle East power balance since Israel pummeled the Iran-backed group in a devastating conflict triggered by the Gaza war.

President Joseph Aoun, who vowed when he took office in January to establish a state monopoly on the control of arms, intends to open talks with Hezbollah over its arsenal soon, three Lebanese political sources said according to Reuters.

Hezbollah emerged severely weakened from the 2024 conflict with Israel when its top leaders and thousands of its fighters were killed and much of its rocket arsenal destroyed. The blow was compounded when its ally Bashar al-Assad was toppled from power in Syria, cutting its supply lines from Iran.

The senior Hezbollah official said the group was ready to discuss its arms in the context of a national defense strategy, but this hinged on Israel pulling out its troops from five hilltops in south Lebanon.

"Hezbollah is ready to discuss the matter of its arms if Israel withdraws from the five points, and halts its aggression against Lebanese," the senior official told Reuters.

Hezbollah's position on potential discussions about its arms has not been previously reported. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity due to political sensitivities.

Hezbollah's media office did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The presidency declined to comment.

Israel, which sent ground troops into south Lebanon during the war, has largely withdrawn but decided in February not to leave the five hilltop positions. It said it intended eventually to hand them over to Lebanese troops once it was sure the security situation allowed.

RENEWED FOCUS ON HEZBOLLAH'S ARMS

Despite a ceasefire since November, Israeli airstrikes have kept pressure on the party while Washington has demanded Hezbollah disarm and is preparing for nuclear talks with Hezbollah's Iranian backers.

Hezbollah has been the most powerful of the paramilitary groups Iran has backed across the region.

Reuters reported on Monday that several Iranian-backed militia groups in Iraq are prepared to disarm for the first time to avert the threat of an escalating conflict with the Trump administration in the US.

Hezbollah has for years rejected calls from its critics in Lebanon to disarm, describing its weapons as vital to defending the country from Israel. Deep differences over its arsenal spilled into a short civil war in 2008.

The party's critics say it has unilaterally dragged Lebanon into conflicts and the presence of its large arsenal outside of government control has undermined the state.

A US-brokered ceasefire with Israel requires the Lebanese army to dismantle all unauthorized military facilities and confiscate all arms, starting in areas south of the Litani River, which flows into the Mediterranean some 20 km (12 miles) north of the Israeli border.

Two sources familiar with Hezbollah's thinking said it is weighing handing to the army its most potent weapons north of the Litani, including drones and anti-tank missiles.

CALL FOR A DISARMAMENT TIMETABLE

Aoun has said Hezbollah's weaponry must be addressed through dialogue because any attempts to disarm the group by force would prompt conflict, the sources said.

Patriarch Beshara Al-Rai, the head of Lebanon's Maronite church, said last week it was time for all weapons to be in state hands, but this would need time and diplomacy because "Lebanon cannot bear a new war".

Communication channels with relevant stakeholders are being opened to "begin studying the transfer of weapons" to state control, after the army and security services had extended state authority across Lebanon, a Lebanese official said, saying this was a move to implement Aoun's policy.

The issue was also being discussed with parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, an important Hezbollah ally, who plays a key role in narrowing differences, she said.

US envoy Morgan Ortagus, who visited Beirut at the weekend, repeated Washington's position that Hezbollah and other armed groups should be disarmed as soon as possible and the Lebanese army was expected to do the job.

"It's clear that Hezbollah has to be disarmed and it's clear that Israel is not going to accept terrorists shooting at them, into their country, and that's a position we understand," Ortagus said in an April 6 interview with Lebanon's LBCI television.

Several Lebanese government ministers want a disarmament timetable, said Kamal Shehadi, a minister affiliated with the anti-Hezbollah Lebanese Forces party. Shehadi told Reuters disarmament should take no more than six months, citing post-civil war militia disarmament as a precedent.

A timetable -- which presumably would impose deadlines on the process -- is, he said, the "only way to protect our fellow citizens from the recurring attacks that are costing lives, costing the economy and causing destruction".

He said he and other ministers hoped the full cabinet would endorse the idea and task the minister of defense with preparing the timetable. "We're going to keep asking for it," he said.

The most recent conflict began when Hezbollah opened fire in support of Hamas at the start of the Gaza war in October 2023.

Hezbollah leader Sheikh Naim Qassem in a March 29 speech said his group no longer has an armed presence south of the Litani, and had stuck to the ceasefire deal while Israel breached it "every day". Israel has accused Hezbollah of maintaining military infrastructure in the south.

Hezbollah has put the onus on the Lebanese state to get Israel to withdraw and stop its attacks. Qassem said there was still time for diplomatic solutions. But he warned that the "resistance is present and ready" and indicated it could resort "to other options" if Israel doesn't adhere to the deal.