Türkiye’s Upbeat Kilicdaroglu Says Election Will Bring a New Spring

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, presidential candidate of Türkiye’s main opposition alliance and the leader of the Republican People's Party (CHP), speaks during an interview with Reuters ahead of the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections in Ankara, Türkiye, May 12, 2023. (Reuters)
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, presidential candidate of Türkiye’s main opposition alliance and the leader of the Republican People's Party (CHP), speaks during an interview with Reuters ahead of the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections in Ankara, Türkiye, May 12, 2023. (Reuters)
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Türkiye’s Upbeat Kilicdaroglu Says Election Will Bring a New Spring

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, presidential candidate of Türkiye’s main opposition alliance and the leader of the Republican People's Party (CHP), speaks during an interview with Reuters ahead of the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections in Ankara, Türkiye, May 12, 2023. (Reuters)
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, presidential candidate of Türkiye’s main opposition alliance and the leader of the Republican People's Party (CHP), speaks during an interview with Reuters ahead of the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections in Ankara, Türkiye, May 12, 2023. (Reuters)

He is not as charismatic as Türkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but mild-mannered Kemal Kilicdaroglu is optimistic about his chances of beating Erdogan in Sunday's election, promising a new spring after two decades of his rival's tumultuous governance.

Long stuck in the shadow of Erdogan and his Islamist-rooted AK Party (AKP), opposition leader Kilicdaroglu has flourished on the campaign trail with polls showing he has a slight lead.

"I am asking everyone to stay calm and to remember that we are bringing spring to this country," he told Reuters in an interview at his office in Ankara two days ahead of what many see as modern Türkiye’s most consequential vote.

"Never have a pessimistic mood," he said in a message to supporters. "Remember that we will replace an authoritarian rule with the votes we cast," he added.

He has pledged to set Türkiye, Europe's second-largest country, on a new path and roll back much of the legacy of the man who has taken tight control of most of its institutions.

Kilicdaroglu's top priority however is a return to orthodox economic policies and the parliamentary system of governance, and independence for a judiciary critics say Erdogan has used to crack down on dissent.

"We need to appoint someone who is trusted by financial circles as the head of the central bank. This is the first thing foreign investors will see. Plus, we will ensure the independence of the central bank," he said in the interview.

"We are forming Champions League teams in every department. From politics to economics, from education to culture. We will rule the country with the most competent teams," he said.

Cost-of-living crisis

His plan aims to cool inflation that hit 85% last year and solve a cost-of living crisis that has impoverished many Turks.

An alliance of six opposition parties named the earnest and sometimes feisty former civil servant as its candidate to take on Erdogan in Sunday's elections.

Opinion polls showed Kilicdaroglu, 74, holding an edge, and possibly winning in a second round vote, after an inclusive campaign promising solutions to a cost-of-living crisis that has eroded Erdogan's popularity in recent years.

"I know people are struggling to get by. I know the cost of living and the hopelessness of young people," Kilicdaroglu told a rally this month. "The time has come for change. A new spirit and understanding is necessary."

Critics say Kilicdaroglu - who is scorned by Erdogan after suffering repeated election defeats as chair of the Republican People's Party (CHP) - lacks his opponent's bombastic style and domineering power to steer his alliance once elected.

He "portrays a totally opposite image from Erdogan, who is a polarizing figure and fighter who consolidates his voter base," said Birol Baskan, a Türkiye-based author and political analyst.

"Kilicdaroglu appears much more statesmanlike, trying to unify and reach out to those not voting for them... That is his magic, and very difficult to do in Türkiye," he said. "I'm not sure he will win, but he, Kilicdaroglu, is the right character at the right time."

If he wins, Kilicdaroglu faces challenges keeping an opposition alliance including nationalists, Islamists, secularists and liberals united. His selection as candidate came after a 72-hour dispute in which the leader of the second-biggest party, IYI's Meral Aksener, briefly walked out.

His biggest task would be erasing the footprints which Erdogan and his party left on all organs of the state, from the military to the judiciary and media, cramming them with loyalists and sidelining liberals and critics.

Kilicdaroglu said a fundamental problem of Türkiye’s foreign policy during the tenure of Erdogan's AKP was the exclusion of the foreign ministry in the policy making process.

‘Peace-oriented foreign policy’

"We would pursue a peace-oriented foreign policy that prioritizes Türkiye’s national interest. Our priority is our national interests and to act in line with the modern world," Kilicdaroglu added.

Analysts say Erdogan, the country's longest-serving leader, is closer than ever to defeat despite the government's record fiscal spending on social aid ahead of the vote.

The opposition has stressed that Erdogan's drive to slash interest rates set off the inflationary crisis that devastated household budgets. The government says the policy stoked exports and investment as part of a program encouraging lira holdings.

Before entering politics, Kilicdaroglu worked in the finance ministry and then chaired Türkiye’s Social Insurance Institution for most of the 1990s. In speeches, Erdogan frequently disparages his performance in that role.

A former economist, he became an MP in 2002 when Erdogan's AKP first came to power, representing the center-left CHP, a party established by modern Türkiye’s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk which has struggled to reach beyond its secularist grassroots toward conservatives.

However, he has spoken in recent years of a desire to heal old wounds with devout Muslims and Kurds.

Kilicdaroglu rose to prominence as the CHP's anti-graft campaigner, appearing on TV to brandish dossiers that led to high-profile resignations. A year after losing a mayoral run in Istanbul, he was elected unopposed as party leader in 2010.

Born in the eastern Tunceli province, Kilicdaroglu is an Alevi, a minority group that follows a faith drawing on Shiite Muslim, Sufi and Anatolian folk traditions.

Nicknamed "Gandhi Kemal" by Türkiye’s media because his slight, bespectacled appearance bears a resemblance to India's independence hero, he captured the public imagination in 2017 when he launched a 450 km (280 mile) "March for Justice" from Ankara to Istanbul over the arrest of a CHP deputy.



How Hamas Recruited, Trained New Fighters During the War

Military training manuals titled “Anti-Armor Weapons – Northern Brigade” and dated 2023 provide insight into Hamas’ methods for preparing recruits to target Israeli forces (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Military training manuals titled “Anti-Armor Weapons – Northern Brigade” and dated 2023 provide insight into Hamas’ methods for preparing recruits to target Israeli forces (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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How Hamas Recruited, Trained New Fighters During the War

Military training manuals titled “Anti-Armor Weapons – Northern Brigade” and dated 2023 provide insight into Hamas’ methods for preparing recruits to target Israeli forces (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Military training manuals titled “Anti-Armor Weapons – Northern Brigade” and dated 2023 provide insight into Hamas’ methods for preparing recruits to target Israeli forces (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Hamas said it recruited and trained thousands of fighters during the 15-month Gaza war, a claim supported by former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

Abu Obaida, spokesman for Hamas’ military wing, the Al-Qassam Brigades, said in July: “We recruited thousands of new fighters, strengthened key capabilities, set up ambushes, and made explosives and rockets.”

The announcement highlights Hamas’ efforts to expand its military strength during the conflict.

In his final address as US Secretary of State on January 14, Blinken confirmed Hamas recruited new fighters during the war.

“Indeed, we assess that Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as it has lost,” Blinken revealed. “That is a recipe for an enduring insurgency and perpetual war,” he explained.

The statements from US officials and Hamas have raised questions about how the group managed to recruit and train fighters amid the war.

However, military training manuals belonging to Hamas, discovered by an Asharq Al-Awsat correspondent in the rubble of Jabalia camp in northern Gaza, provided partial insight into the group’s methods for preparing its fighters.

The Jabalia refugee camp was the site of a highly intense Israeli military operation that lasted around 100 days. According to Israeli army statements, the operation resulted in the deaths of dozens of Israeli officers and soldiers.

Hamas, however, has remained silent about its own losses during the battles, leaving questions about the full scale of casualties in the prolonged fighting.

Military training manuals titled “Anti-Armor Weapons – Northern Brigade” and dated 2023 provide insight into Hamas’ methods for preparing recruits to target Israeli forces.

The documents include instructions on using light weapons, guided rockets, and other munitions, aiming to train new fighters for operations against Israeli troops.

The manuals detail shooting techniques, effective firing ranges, and guidelines for targeting Israeli armored vehicles, particularly weaknesses in Merkava tanks to maximize damage and ensure destruction.

They also explain the use of various projectiles, including RBG rockets, PG-7V, F-7, BG-7M, Yassin rockets, tandem warheads, and both Chinese and Russian munitions, as well as the TBG rocket system.

According to Hamas sources speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, such manuals have long been part of Al-Qassam Brigades’ military training.

Recruits have been trained practically at military sites using these guides. The sources added that the manuals found in Jabalia, where clashes took place, were intended to help fighters, particularly new recruits, deal with the Israeli assault.

Hamas sources said the training manuals significantly aided fighters in battles across Gaza, particularly in the north, which faced the heaviest and most extensive Israeli assaults.

“The military capabilities were being eroded,” the sources said.

“However, field commanders quickly addressed this by recruiting new fighters and finding alternatives to manage the battle effectively,” they added.

The sources noted that many fighters recruited during the Gaza war had undergone only basic, fast-track training before being sent to the battlefield. After losing many experienced fighters, the group relied on trainees and loyalists with minimal preparation.

“These new recruits fought alongside seasoned fighters,” the sources said. “They received basic instructions and were taught to use advanced weapons like guided rockets but were mostly skilled with light arms like Kalashnikov rifles.”

Despite limited training, the recruits played a vital role in the conflict.

Sources acknowledged that new recruits had limited field experience and faced challenges but found urban and guerrilla warfare easier. Most of these fighters were involved in battles in northern Gaza, especially in Jabalia and Beit Lahia, while a smaller group fought in Beit Hanoun and took part in operations that killed Israeli soldiers.

Hamas emphasized its recruitment abilities during the first hostage exchange after last Sunday’s ceasefire. Al-Qassam Brigades members made a public appearance in Gaza City, which is in northern Gaza.

Hamas reportedly used a “deception” tactic, sending out vehicles resembling those used to transport hostages while also deploying decoy vehicles from different areas.

They also instructed their members to gather in Saraya Square to distract from the vehicle carrying female prisoners.

The exact number of new recruits remains unclear, though they have been called “2024 recruits” after a statement by Abu Obaida. Israeli media estimates the number at around 4,000 fighters, with some accusing Mohammad Sinwar, brother of the late Yahya Sinwar, of leading the recruitment.

Blinken criticized Israel’s approach in Gaza, saying Hamas can’t be defeated by military means alone. He stressed the need for a political solution to prevent the group’s return.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Mohammad Sinwar is focused on rebuilding the group's military strength.

Hamas’ recruitment during the war and its continued resistance have made it a tough challenge for Israel, which has had to return to areas it thought were cleared of militants, only to face renewed fighting.

Before the war, Hamas’ Al-Qassam Brigades had about 30,000 fighters in 24 battalions.

Blinken noted that Hamas had replaced the fighters it lost during the conflict and that militants in northern Gaza continue to regroup after Israeli military operations, showing the ongoing challenge for Israel without a political solution.