Türkiye’s New FM to Spearhead Open-Door Diplomacy Approach with Adversaries

Türkiye’s New FM to Spearhead Open-Door Diplomacy Approach with Adversaries
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Türkiye’s New FM to Spearhead Open-Door Diplomacy Approach with Adversaries

Türkiye’s New FM to Spearhead Open-Door Diplomacy Approach with Adversaries

Former Turkish intelligence chief Hakan Fidan’s inclusion as a minister in President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's newly-formed government did not come as a surprise to the general public.

This anticipated appointment was rooted in Fidan’s longstanding aspiration for political involvement, evident when he sought Erdogan’s nomination for parliamentary elections in 2015.

However, the surprise lay in the portfolio he assumed: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Traditionally held by diplomats rather than security officials, this appointment caught many familiar with Fidan off guard.

Yet, they had no absolute astonishment as they expected him to succeed in making a significant shift in Turkish foreign policy, especially concerning countries classified as “adversaries.”

A great deal has been written about Israel’s “hostility” towards Fidan, who was accused by The Washington Post in 2013 of exposing the identities of ten Israeli spies to Iran.

Perhaps one of the most explicit remarks came from Erdogan, describing Fidan as my “black box and secret keeper.”

“He and those with him shape the future of Türkiye,” the president had stated.

Incidentally, it is believed that Fidan was the initial discoverer of the conspiracy to topple the Turkish government in 2016.

Turkish officials in close proximity to Erdogan disclosed to Asharq Al-Awsat that Fidan made efforts to contact the president and alert him but encountered difficulty due to Erdogan’s absence on a family vacation.

Consequently, Fidan reached out to one of Erdogan’s sons-in-law and conveyed the information to him.

It is said that Türkiye’s new top diplomat is the one who advised Erdogan to appear on social media platforms to mobilize the masses at the time of the attempted coup.

According to a Turkish source, there is a new policy emerging in the country under Fidan's leadership, aligning with the British system.

In Erdogan’s new government, the foreign minister comes from the intelligence sector, the defense minister from the military, and the interior minister from the governing administration, particularly the state governors.

Fidan’s anticipated success stems from his adeptness at leveraging his relationships and information.

The newly appointed foreign minister had served as the “link” and contact point with countries that had adversarial governments towards Türkiye, such as Syria and Egypt, as well as with some countries where relations were marked by competition, like Iran.

According to sources closely following the matter, Fidan initiated broad negotiations with Syria recently, leading to personal meetings with Syrian officials.

Former director of the Lebanese General Security agency, Abbas Ibrahim, sees Fidan’s appointment as a step in a positive direction for improving Turkish-Syrian relations.

According to Ibrahim, who has worked with Fidan on several issues and maintains an ongoing professional friendship, Fidan is a highly pragmatic individual who possesses an in-depth understanding of the intricacies of the Syrian matter.

Ibrahim revealed that Fidan recently held meetings with Syrian officials, emphasizing that “he understands them, and they understand him.”

Fidan is considered to have a “remarkable ability to initiate trust-building with the Syrian side,” as he has worked on various aspects such as security, politics, and the military concerning Türkiye’s presence in Syria.

Speaking about Fidan’s interactions with Syrian officials, Ibrahim highlighted their efforts to “resolve Turkish-Syrian disagreements on Syrian territory,” but unfortunately, this resolution has not been implemented by Turkish politicians specifically.

Fidan enjoys an intriguing biography that emphasizes practicality over personal details.

He remains a mysterious figure to the Turkish public, with limited public appearances apart from his acceptance speech as a minister.

However, those familiar with his background recognize his remarkable determination.

He spent 15 years in the military, starting as a low-ranking soldier and ending as a non-commissioned officer.

Fidan is married and a father of three children. He was born in the capital city of Ankara in 1968.

He studied and graduated from the Infantry School in 1986. He gained practical experience in the field of intelligence and worked between 1986 and 2001 in the “Rapid Response Unit” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

He also worked in the branch of rapid information gathering in Germany.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.