Failed Wagner Revolt Leaves a Question in Africa: Will the Ruthless Mercenaries Remain?

Supporters of Capt. Ibrahim Traore parade wave a Russian flag in the streets of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, Oct. 2, 2022. (AP)
Supporters of Capt. Ibrahim Traore parade wave a Russian flag in the streets of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, Oct. 2, 2022. (AP)
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Failed Wagner Revolt Leaves a Question in Africa: Will the Ruthless Mercenaries Remain?

Supporters of Capt. Ibrahim Traore parade wave a Russian flag in the streets of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, Oct. 2, 2022. (AP)
Supporters of Capt. Ibrahim Traore parade wave a Russian flag in the streets of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, Oct. 2, 2022. (AP)

The Russian mercenary group that briefly threatened President Vladimir Putin’s authority has for years been a ruthless force-for-hire across Africa, protecting rulers at the expense of the masses. That dynamic is not expected to change now that the group’s founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has been exiled to Belarus as punishment for the failed rebellion.

The Wagner Group brutalizes civilians in the Central African Republic, Mali and elsewhere to crush dissent and fend off threats to their leaders’ power. In exchange, Russia gains access to natural resources and ports through which weapons can be shipped, and receives payments that enrich the Kremlin and help it fund operations elsewhere, including the war in Ukraine.

Neither Russia nor the African leaders dependent on Wagner's fighters have any interest in ending those relationships. But many questions linger in the aftermath of Wagner's stunning revolt, such as who will lead its thousands of fighters stationed across many African nations and whether Moscow will absorb these fighters into the Russian army.

“The situation is extremely volatile," said Nathalia Dukhan, senior investigator at The Sentry, a US-based policy organization that published an investigative report Tuesday accusing Wagner of carrying out various human-rights abuses in African countries.

"But what we have learnt from investigating and analyzing Wagner in Africa in the past five years is that the group is resilient, creative, fearless and predatory, so it is less likely that the Wagner empire will instantly fall like a house of cards.”

Beyond the financial rewards, Putin has also sought to use Wagner fighters to help expand Russia's presence in the Middle East and Africa. He seeks out security alliances with autocrats, coup leaders, and others who have been spurned or neglected by the US and Europe, either because of their bloody abuses or because of competing Western strategic interests.

Asked whether Wagner's weekend mutiny could erode Russia’s positions in Africa, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told a state-run TV network that security assistance to African countries would continue. He specifically mentioned the Central African Republic and Mali, and noted that Russian government officials have maintained contact with leaders there.

Lavrov told RT he has not seen “any sign of panic or any sign of change” in African nations over the revolt against Moscow. But amid the uncertainty, there is at the very least some confusion about what exactly comes next.

In Mali, where at least 1,000 Wagner fighters replaced French troops brought in to fight extremists, the US alleges that the Kremlin uses the country as a way-station for arms shipments to Russian forces in Ukraine. But the Malian government has denied using Wagner for any purpose other than training.

An officer in the Malian Air Force who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was unauthorized to comment publicly said Russian fighters play an important combat role.

“At the moment we don’t have enough pilots, and most of our military aircraft and combat helicopters are flown by Wagner’s men. If Russia asks the Malian government to stop cooperating with Wagner, we’ll be obliged to do so, because we have a greater interest in the Russian government than in Wagner,” the officer said.

As part of a deal to end the rebellion, Putin has presented Wagner fighters with three options: either join the Russian military, go to Belarus like Prigozhin, or return home. It was not clear if those options also applied to Wagner fighters in Africa.

In the Central African Republic, a statue in the capital, Bangui, pays tribute to Russian mercenaries who have helped keep President Faustin-Archange Touadera in power. Lavrov told RT that hundreds of Russian fighters would remain there.

Regardless of who ultimately oversees the Wagner fighters in the Central African Republic, the source of their authority remains clear, said Jordy Christopher, a special adviser to Touadera. “Prigozhin is nothing more than a pawn in the handling of the art of war, moreover he is only the tip of the iceberg,” he said.

Wagner operates in roughly 30 countries, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and it faces numerous human rights violations, including extrajudicial killings. Its fighters are most influential in African countries where armed conflicts have forced leaders to turn to Moscow for help, such as Libya and Sudan.

“The African leadership of these countries need them,” said Federica Saini Fasanotti, a senior Fellow at Brookings Institution’s Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology.

Still, some experts said the revolt against the Kremlin will force African countries reliant on Wagner to pay closer attention to how they engage with Russia, where Putin faces the gravest threat to his authority since coming to power more than two decades ago.

“Developments in Russia will likely render many African countries more cautious in their engagement with Russia moving forward,” said Ryan Cummings, director of Africa-focused security consulting company Signal Risk.

Any unexpected turn of events domestically in Russia poses potential threats to African leaders who have become dependent on its foreign fighters to stay in power, such as those in Mali and the Central African Republic.

"Any withdrawal could readily be exploited by non-state groups challenging the authority of the government in these countries,” said Cummings.



Grief Silenced, Suppressed as South Lebanon, Beirut Suburbs Are ‘Barred’ from Mourning War Dead

Women mourn during the funeral procession for three Lebanese Civil Defense members killed in an Israeli airstrike on the village of Majdal Zoun in southern Lebanon. (dpa)
Women mourn during the funeral procession for three Lebanese Civil Defense members killed in an Israeli airstrike on the village of Majdal Zoun in southern Lebanon. (dpa)
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Grief Silenced, Suppressed as South Lebanon, Beirut Suburbs Are ‘Barred’ from Mourning War Dead

Women mourn during the funeral procession for three Lebanese Civil Defense members killed in an Israeli airstrike on the village of Majdal Zoun in southern Lebanon. (dpa)
Women mourn during the funeral procession for three Lebanese Civil Defense members killed in an Israeli airstrike on the village of Majdal Zoun in southern Lebanon. (dpa)

Residents of South Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs are caught between grief and resilience, a feeling unlike any other, and one that is suffocating most families.

Some have the courage to raise their voices and express the pain, grief, and regret they feel over their losses. Others feel ashamed to speak out because of social constraints imposed on them, which make their grief seem disgraceful or forbidden.

Comparisons over loss are always present, and the main justification remains that what people lose is nothing compared with the blood of those who fall defending their land.

In the largely devastated South today, grief is not allowed to take its natural space. A mother who loses her son or husband, a woman who loses her home, a father who loses his source of income, and others all find themselves facing a social system that forces them to suppress their emotions.

This suppression, in turn, becomes a form of self-censorship that prevents any citizen from grieving or crying. Silence becomes the only option, because expressing pain may be interpreted as weakness, lack of patience, or even a moral failing toward the “larger cause” championed by Hezbollah.

This is the reality now lived by almost every family that has lost, or continues to lose, homes and loved ones in Beirut’s southern suburbs, the Bekaa, and the South. Towns are being destroyed, memories are being erased, and any hope of return is fading.

Meanwhile, expressing pain has become an act of betrayal on social media, where it has become a social court that judges people’s feelings and emotions.

This is what happened to many people who dared to raise their voices in grief and blame those who made the decision to go to war, namely, Hezbollah.

A women grieves as she rests her head on one of nine people killed the day before in an Israeli airstrike on the southern Lebanese village of Jibchit, during their funeral in the city of Sidon on May 10, 2026. (AFP)

Accusations of treason

Nour, who remains displaced with her family in a school and lives each day hoping she will not receive news that her home in the South has been destroyed, said: “We are all doing our best to endure, but some people cannot bear more than they can handle.”

She said that expressing what a citizen from the South feels is now met with ready-made accusations. “He is considered against the resistance [Hezbollah], an agent and a traitor,” she revealed, adding: “People have started setting the standards and deciding what is right and what is wrong.”

“We have become a people left to our fate, and no one asks about us,” she lamented. “Those who criticize us for expressing our pain are the ones living comfortable lives and passing judgment from afar.”

“Those who see expressing our pain as a crime should live one day like the days we are living, and then talk about dignity and patriotism,” she added.

‘Forbidden from expressing our pain’

Zeinab also spoke of the pressure faced by those who express their pain.

“It is as if families who lose their livelihoods, their children, their homes and the work of years are expected to show patience and the morals of Ahl al-Bayt, morals that those accusing others of betrayal do not possess as they throw around charges of treason at random,” she said.

“I am a daughter of this environment, and I know very well what people say when they speak about their pain,” she declared. “But we are not allowed to express this pain out loud, or we are deemed traitors.”

“My house, which my husband and I built over 10 years in the South, was destroyed. My husband lost his shop, and today I look at my children and do not know where to take them, what their future will be, or who will compensate us for our losses.”

Organized suppression

Against this backdrop, sociologist Mona Fayyad told Asharq Al-Awsat: “What is happening today in the environment controlled by Hezbollah is a policy of silencing people, within a narrative that is being imposed by force.”

She said that in the past, Hezbollah had achieved a measure of success that covered up losses. The party also had organized bodies capable of providing psychological and financial support to families, helping contain losses and giving them meaning through slogans, such as the “liberation of Jerusalem” and others.

That, she said, pushed people to suppress their pain and express it only within that framework.

“Today, however, the situation has started to change little by little, and people have begun daring to raise their voices, which is why campaigns accusing them of betrayal are increasing,” Fayyad explained.

A man watches as rescuers work at the site of an Israeli strike that took place on May 6, in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, May 7, 2026. (Reuters)

Pent-up feelings

Fayyad spoke of the suffering of Lebanese people in general, and residents of the South, Beirut’s southern suburbs, and areas under Israeli bombardment in particular.

“People are hurting on several levels, and all Lebanese are living in a difficult state of waiting, unable to plan for the future, which is one of the hardest things a person can experience,” she said.

“We are now in the unknown, and we are threatened in terms of security and the economy.”

She said residents of the South and Beirut's southern suburbs who lost their homes face double suffering, amid insecurity, displacement and tens of thousands of destroyed homes that leave them unable to know their fate.

“These people are carrying a heavy burden, and they are forbidden from expressing it, but the pressure will inevitably explode somewhere,” Fayyad remarked.

“The problem is that they have no horizon ahead of them, amid declining support, losses turning into numbers with no value, and a refusal to acknowledge defeat.”

“And yet, voices have begun to emerge. But shock is still dominant, and people have not yet absorbed what happened,” Fayyad went on to say.

“With time, and as the picture becomes clearer, this pain will unfortunately come out into the open in different forms, from psychological and physical illnesses to nervous breakdowns.”


Arafat and Tehran: From Revolutionary Embrace to Open Hostility

Yasser Arafat during a visit to Tehran on February 17, 1979. He was the first official figure to visit Iran after the "Islamic Revolution" (Getty).
Yasser Arafat during a visit to Tehran on February 17, 1979. He was the first official figure to visit Iran after the "Islamic Revolution" (Getty).
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Arafat and Tehran: From Revolutionary Embrace to Open Hostility

Yasser Arafat during a visit to Tehran on February 17, 1979. He was the first official figure to visit Iran after the "Islamic Revolution" (Getty).
Yasser Arafat during a visit to Tehran on February 17, 1979. He was the first official figure to visit Iran after the "Islamic Revolution" (Getty).

Yasser Arafat was the first foreign leader to visit Iran after Khomeini’s 1979 Iranian Revolution. At the time, he believed the Palestinian cause was gaining a powerful new ally in revolutionary Iran, which immediately closed the Israeli embassy and handed it over to the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). But Arafat soon discovered that Tehran’s public support for Palestine was neither unconditional nor straightforward. What began as a honeymoon quickly unraveled into a lasting rupture.88888

Associates of Arafat, who was known for his wit and political sharpness, recalled his surprise when Khomeini insisted on using a Persian translator during their meeting despite speaking fluent Arabic. Arafat was even more unsettled when Khomeini urged him to declare the Palestinian revolution an Islamic one. Those moments deepened Arafat’s suspicions that Iran’s support came with ideological and political conditions attached.

Arafat’s ties with Iranian revolutionaries had predated the revolution, and he responded cautiously. He told Khomeini that the Palestinian struggle was not an Islamic revolution but a national movement representing all Palestinians, Muslims and Christians alike. Later, he would joke about the irony of the leader of the Islamic Revolution pretending not to speak Arabic—the language of the Quran—even though the two men had previously spoken in Arabic before the revolution succeeded.

Arafat–Tehran: Open Hostility

Despite his reservations, Arafat initially maintained cordial relations with Tehran. But the relationship collapsed after the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq War in 1980. Iranian leaders demanded that Arafat publicly support them against Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. Instead, Arafat leaned toward Iraq. From that point on, relations spiraled into open confrontation.

 

Iran increasingly sought to weaken Arafat and the PLO by cultivating rival Palestinian factions. Palestinians still remember that Tehran did little to help Arafat during Israel’s siege of Beirut in 1982, while he was simultaneously confronting Syria, then one of Iran’s closest regional allies. Damascus supported and financed a major split within Fatah led by Said Moussa Muragha, better known as Abu Musa, who later founded the breakaway movement Fatah al-Intifada and settled in Syria. Tehran also encouraged divisions within other factions operating under the PLO umbrella.

Palestinians also remember the role played by Lebanese Shiite militias affiliated with the Amal Movement, which had pledged allegiance to Khomeini and later participated in massacres inside Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon.

From that point onward, relations between Iran and the PLO, and later the Palestinian Authority, remained deeply strained. Mutual accusations continued even after Arafat’s death, eventually evolving into something close to declared hostility.

Between periods of tension and cautious rapprochement, Iran eventually found an opening with the establishment of the Palestinian Authority through its growing ties with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Tehran initially offered the two groups public political support, then financial and military backing, eventually integrating them into a broader regional axis. That axis remained intact until the Hamas-led October 2023 attack on Israel, which triggered devastating consequences not only for Hamas but for Iran’s entire regional network, ultimately reverberating back to Tehran itself.

Supporting Rival Factions to Undermine Fatah

Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad established relations with Iran in the late 1980s, shortly after both movements were founded. Those ties deepened throughout the 1990s and intensified during the Second Intifada, which erupted in late 2000. Iranian support expanded further after Hamas seized control of Gaza in 2007.

That takeover gave Iran unprecedented influence inside the Palestinian territories. Tehran intensified military cooperation with Hamas and Islamic Jihad through joint meetings, strategic coordination, and training programs. Fighters from Gaza were sent to Iran and to Hezbollah camps in Lebanon for military training under the supervision of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Iran poured money into both groups and trained their operatives to manufacture and launch rockets and other weapons, significantly strengthening their military capabilities. At the same time, the Palestinian Authority and Fatah accused Tehran of fueling Palestinian division through its limitless support for Islamist factions.

Two Hamas sources, one inside Gaza and one abroad, told Asharq Al-Awsat that Hamas’ takeover of Gaza opened the door to an entirely new relationship with Tehran. According to the source outside Gaza, Iran provided extensive financial and military support while helping improve the movement’s combat expertise.

A source inside Gaza said Iran proposed establishing training facilities inside the enclave, but Hamas rejected the idea and instead limited cooperation to sending selected operatives abroad for training. Even so, the relationship substantially enhanced Hamas’ military capabilities.

Islamic Jihad’s relationship with Tehran was even older and stronger. A source from the movement said Iran played a decisive role in arming Palestinian factions during that period, supplying ready-made Grad rockets and Iranian-made Fajr missiles before local production capabilities were later developed using Iranian technical expertise.

Iran’s influence became so visible in Gaza that smaller armed groups also received funding, while some organizations openly embraced Shiite ideology or even called themselves “Palestinian Hezbollah.”

Although Hamas and Islamic Jihad insisted that their political decisions remained independent, Iranian influence became impossible to conceal. Neither movement directly answered questions about whether Tehran had deliberately encouraged Palestinian fragmentation. Instead, sources maintained that Iran’s primary objective was to strengthen the “resistance” against Israel and reinforce Gaza’s front line.

The Turning Point of the Syrian Revolution

The Syrian uprising against President Bashar al-Assad in 2011 exposed the fragility of the Hamas-Iran alliance. Hamas sided against Assad and left Damascus in 2012, enraging Tehran. Iran sharply reduced its financial support to the movement, a fact later acknowledged publicly by Hamas political leader Khaled Meshaal.

Meshaal admitted that Hamas’ dispute with Assad severely damaged ties with Iran and that Tehran was no longer the movement’s primary financial backer. Iran had expected Hamas to support Assad during the uprising, and Hamas’s refusal cost the group both its Syrian base and substantial Iranian funding.

Still, Tehran did not abandon its efforts. Instead, it tried to cultivate influence within Hamas itself. Sources said Iran shifted toward providing limited support directly to Hamas’ armed wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, in an apparent attempt to create tension with the movement’s political leadership.

At minimum, Iran succeeded in deepening internal debates within Hamas over regional alliances and political loyalties. The period proved difficult for both sides, and repeated attempts at reconciliation angered Hamas’s Sunni support base because of Iran’s growing regional role.

Abu Marzouk Debunks Iran’s Claims

As Hezbollah worked behind the scenes to repair relations, a leaked phone call revealed unprecedented criticism from within Hamas itself. In January 2012, Asharq Al-Awsat obtained and published a recording of Mousa Abu Marzouk, then deputy head of Hamas’s political bureau, sharply attacking Iran and denying Iranian claims that it had significantly supported Palestinian resistance since 2009.

In the recording, Abu Marzouk criticized Tehran’s regional policies, including its role in Yemen, and described Iranian diplomacy as manipulative. He also claimed Iran conditioned its support on Hamas helping improve Tehran’s relations with countries such as Sudan, describing that as part of Iran’s pressure tactics. He accused Iranian officials of exaggerating their support, saying: “Every ship they lose, they claim was heading to Gaza. A ship was seized in Nigeria and they said it was for us. I told them: apparently every intercepted ship in the world belongs to us.”

A Hamas source abroad told Asharq Al-Awsat that the leaked recording infuriated Iran and forced Hamas leaders to provide explanations to Tehran during an already dangerous turning point in the relationship. The crisis was eventually contained, but it exposed the deep mistrust underlying the alliance.

Building the Axis and the “Unity of Fronts”

Within months of that incident, efforts to restore ties resumed. Relations steadily improved as Hamas’ Gaza leadership tightened its grip over the movement’s political bureau elected in 2017, headed by Ismail Haniyeh, with Yahya Sinwar leading in Gaza and the military wing gaining unprecedented influence.

A source said Iran had strong incentives to preserve the relationship with Hamas because it remained “the largest Sunni Islamist movement in Palestine, with broader reach and capabilities than any other faction.” The relationship, he noted, never completely broke down, and once Hamas’s military leadership gained prominence, ties deepened further in ways that served both sides’ interests.

Relations continued to improve as Hezbollah and Iranian officials worked to restore Hamas’ ties even with the Syrian regime, though reconciliation was never fully completed before Bashar al-Assad’s government collapsed.

Hamas regained Iranian backing, and Tehran consolidated a regional axis in which the movement became a central pillar. Iran also promoted the idea of the “unity of fronts,” convincing its allies that all arenas confronting Israel were interconnected. That appears to have helped persuade Sinwar that Tehran would stand firmly behind Hamas after the October 7 attack, something that did not happen.

Iran, which denied prior knowledge of the attack, chose not to intervene directly, raising serious doubts about the cohesion of the so-called “axis,” the credibility of the “unity of fronts,” and the true extent of coordination among its members.

Even Palestinian Islamic Jihad, despite receiving substantial Iranian support alongside Hamas, reportedly had no prior knowledge of the attack. The movement was generally viewed as more closely aligned with Tehran, or at least more willing to accommodate Iranian political priorities.

The October 7 Turning Point

Islamic Jihad was not immune to Iranian demands that went beyond support for “the resistance.” In 2015, the two sides entered a serious but short-lived crisis over Yemen after the Palestinian movement refused to issue a statement backing the Houthis and their seizure of large parts of the country, including the capital, Sanaa.

Iran responded by cutting support to Islamic Jihad, much as it had previously done with Hamas, and redirected funding to the Sabireen Movement, a splinter faction formed by former Islamic Jihad figures with Iranian backing.

A source from Islamic Jihad told Asharq Al-Awsat that the sharp decline in Iranian support marked one of the most difficult periods the movement had ever faced.

Ultimately, Iran could not escape paying a price itself. It found itself pulled into confrontation with the United States and Israel after wars had already engulfed Hamas and Hezbollah. Those cascading conflicts were set in motion by the October 7 attack, which reshaped not only Iran’s regional axis but the broader Middle East.

The War’s Endgame

The war is still ongoing, and it remains unclear whether Iran will eventually abandon Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, and the Houthis to protect itself. Tehran continues to assure the Palestinian factions that support will continue, although that support has slowed in recent months because of the war, regional instability, and intensified Israeli and American efforts targeting Iranian financial and logistical networks.

Israel has assassinated several Iranian officials responsible for managing ties with Palestinian factions, while Washington has increasingly demanded that Tehran halt support for its regional proxies.

The Palestinian Authority Cuts the Final Thread

Throughout the war, Hamas and Islamic Jihad publicly sided with Iran, signaling their desire to preserve the relationship, though it remained unclear how much control they truly had over that decision, or what the alliance’s future might look like.

The Palestinian Authority, however, appears to have decisively severed what Arabs often call the “Muawiya thread,” the final strand holding a relationship together.

During the Gaza war, the Authority not only attacked Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, for praising Hamas’s October 7 operation — accusing him of sacrificing Palestinian lives and land to serve Iran’s agenda — but also said Hamas was serving Iranian interests rather than Palestinian national ones.

At the same time, the Palestinian Authority refrained from condemning the joint American-Israeli strikes on Iran while later condemning Iranian attacks on Arab countries.

The war pushed the Authority more firmly into alignment with the so-called “moderate Arab axis” in opposition to the Iranian-led camp, abandoning much of the ambiguity that had long characterized its political posture.

A well-informed source told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Palestinian Authority had not changed its position so much as clarified it. “Its stance is not new,” the source said, “but it is now more explicit. The Authority is strengthening its place within the moderate camp against the Iranian axis.”

The Palestinian Authority believes everything changed after October 7. But it also believes the wars unleashed by the attack will ultimately vindicate its own political strategy while weakening Iran and its regional allies.


What to Know About Trump-Xi Summit with Trade, Taiwan and Iran on the Agenda

President Donald Trump, left, and Chinese President Xi Jinping, shake hands after their US-China summit talk at Gimhae International Airport Jinping in Busan, South Korea, Oct. 30, 2025. (AP)
President Donald Trump, left, and Chinese President Xi Jinping, shake hands after their US-China summit talk at Gimhae International Airport Jinping in Busan, South Korea, Oct. 30, 2025. (AP)
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What to Know About Trump-Xi Summit with Trade, Taiwan and Iran on the Agenda

President Donald Trump, left, and Chinese President Xi Jinping, shake hands after their US-China summit talk at Gimhae International Airport Jinping in Busan, South Korea, Oct. 30, 2025. (AP)
President Donald Trump, left, and Chinese President Xi Jinping, shake hands after their US-China summit talk at Gimhae International Airport Jinping in Busan, South Korea, Oct. 30, 2025. (AP)

As Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump prepare for a highly anticipated summit, both China and the United States say their ties have been broadly stable in recent months and they are planning on keeping it that way.

But a long list of issues are at stake in one of the world’s most consequential relationship, with no easy end in sight.

Few expect major breakthroughs to the long-running frictions between China and the US, which range from competition in technology to the thorny question of Taiwan, whose main ally is the US. Ending the war with Iran is likely to be added to the agenda, with Beijing being one of the unofficial mediators in the conflict.

“On both sides there is a consensus that US-China stability is important,” said Henrietta Levin, senior fellow for the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “Once you get past the question of stability, the ‘what’s next’ in the relationship gets a little more complicated, and so for that reason, the most likely thing to come out of the meeting is very little.”

Here's what to know about the summit:

There may be a trade deal, but not a resolution

The China-US trade war started with Trump’s first term, but turned up a notch in April last year, on Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day,” when he announced 34% tariffs on all Chinese goods. China retaliated with counter tariffs and other measures, such as restrictions on rare earth exports. Tariffs reached as high as 145% in the escalating back and forth.

The two sides, realizing the sky-high tariffs weren’t sustainable, then called for a trade truce, halting many of the punitive economic measures. The two leaders met in South Korea in October and extended the truce for another year. China promised to purchase soybeans from American farmers, while the US dropped tariffs by more than half.

“China’s strategy was to promote stability by fighting back,” said Fudan University professor Zhao Minghao, an expert in international relations. “Both sides could very well issue a comprehensive trade agreement this time. But this doesn’t mean the war is over, and the agreement will have conditions.”

Last year’s trade truce did not resolve any of the bigger picture issues, and it did not mean a return to how things were. China now has a new export permit requirement for rare earth exports that it can tighten at any time.

Further, this time around, “there’s been a lack of the intensive type of engagement that has characterized past summits,” said Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Society, and a former trade negotiator for the US.

China in April issued new regulations that built out a framework for identifying and countering foreign measures targeted at Chinese companies. Under the new rules, for example, China’s Ministry of Commerce told impacted companies, such as one petroleum refinery that bought Iranian crude oil, to ignore US sanctions.

Although some say the sides could announce a continuation of the trade truce, they note they have continued to take targeted actions. “It’s a fragile truce,” said Cutler.

The White House said Sunday they are also planning to discuss creating a new “Board of Trade” to keep their countries talking on economic issues.

China's ability to buy high-tech chips is still a thorny issue

The US imposed restrictions on exports to China of advanced computer chips and related tech, such as the machines to make the chips, as early as Trump’s first term in office.

Nvidia, a California company and the leading designer of advanced chips, has pressed Trump to allow it to export them to China. Nvidia founder Jensen Huang has argued that selling the chips will build reliance on American tech for Chinese AI firms.

But the increasing list of restrictions on chip exports may only push China deeper in its drive for self-reliance. “China’s attitude has changed subtly, it seems more focused on advancing its domestic chip industry rather than continuing to rely on advanced chips from the United States,” Zhao said in written comments.

China sees Taiwan as the ‘biggest risk’ in ties with the US

Two weeks before the meeting, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in a call with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that the bilateral relationship has remained generally stable, but Taiwan remains the “biggest risk” to their ties. China signaled again on Thursday that Taiwan would be a top priority for discussion.

Few expect a resolution to the Taiwan issue, lingering since China and Taiwan split in a civil war in 1949. While Beijing claims Taiwan, the island is a self-ruled democracy.

Tensions have only risen since Taiwan first elected Tsai Ing-wen as president in 2016. Her Democratic Progressive Party says Taiwan is functionally independent and its own sovereign state. Beijing has broken off communication with Taiwan’s government, and in recent years, started sending warplanes and warships closer to the island in almost daily drills.

The island’s current President Lai Ching-te is also from the DPP. Beijing has criticized Lai repeatedly, even depicting him as a “parasite” in propaganda imagery for its military exercises.

The US is required by law to ensure Taiwan can defend itself but officially maintains a position of what has been called strategic ambiguity, leaving it a question of whether the US would get involved militarily if China decided to reclaim Taiwan by force. Trump has also said recently that he discussed arms sales to Taiwan with Xi, which led to further questions of whether the US would support Taiwan.

“One possibility is that China and the US can take the strategy of a sort of ‘reciprocal restraint’, such as reducing the number of American arms sales to Taiwan, in exchange for fewer military exercises from the mainland aimed at Taiwan,” said Zhao.

The US wants China to put pressure on Iran

As the world awaits an end to the war in Iran that has shaken the global economy, the conflict is likely to surface in the talks.

China has openly criticized the United States and Israel over the war. In addition, given its close political and economic ties with Iran, it is seen by some as an unofficial mediator that could influence Tehran. So far, Beijing has remained cautious, preferring to not get deeply involved.

“I don’t think China has any interest in solving the problems the US has created for itself in the Middle East,” Levin, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said.

A few days before the trip, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on China to pressure Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, and said that by buying Iranian oil, Beijing is funding terrorism.

“Let’s see if China — let’s see them step up with some diplomacy and get the Iranians to open the strait,” Bessent said on Fox News. “Iran is the largest state sponsor of terrorism, and China has been buying 90% of their energy, so they are funding the largest state sponsor of terrorism.”