Israeli Attack Exposed Iran's Military 'Vulnerability', Say Analysts

 A building stands damaged in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
A building stands damaged in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
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Israeli Attack Exposed Iran's Military 'Vulnerability', Say Analysts

 A building stands damaged in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
A building stands damaged in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters

Israel's strikes on archfoe on Iran Friday exposed severe weaknesses for Tehran that have hampered its ability to respond militarily, analysts said.

Israel said it hit 100 targets including Iranian nuclear and military sites in the attacks, killing senior figures, among them the armed forces' chief and top nuclear scientists.

Supreme leader Ali Khamenei warned Israel it faces a "bitter and painful" fate over the attacks, but analysts say the country's options are limited.

"This is an intelligence defeat of existential proportions for Iran," said Ali Fathollah-Nejad, director of the Berlin-based Center for Middle East and Global Order (CMEG) think tank.

"It exposes the vital vulnerability of the regime's military and security apparatus and its key infrastructures, including nuclear, as well as its top political and military leadership," he told AFP.

"All this is meant, inter alia, to cripple Tehran's command and counter-strike capacities."

The United States and other Western countries, along with Israel, accuse Iran of seeking a nuclear weapon.

Tehran denies that, but has gradually broken away from its commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal it struck with world powers, after the United States pulled out of it.

The landmark accord provided Iran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its atomic program, but it fell apart after President Donald Trump halted US participation in 2018, during his first term.

Western nations in recent days accused Tehran of deliberately escalating its nuclear program, despite several rounds of US-Iran talks for a new accord.

Iran's Atomic Energy Organization said Thursday it would "significantly" increase production of enriched uranium, after the UN's nuclear watchdog found Tehran in breach of its obligations.

Israel has previously carried out attacks in Iran, including against military targets in October last year.

But Friday's attacks were unprecedented.

"The Israel campaign is sweeping in scope and sophistication," said Ali Vaez, of the International Crisis Group.

"We may still only be in the early stages of a prolonged operation that continues to expand, disrupting Iran's ability to either formulate or execute a response."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned his country's military operation would "continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat".

Friday's strikes killed Iran's highest-ranking military officer, armed forces chief of staff Mohammad Bagheri, and the head of the powerful Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, Iranian media reported.

A senior advisor to Khamenei was also wounded, state television said.

Clement Therme, of the Sorbonne University, said that "to retaliate, the regime seems to be in a bind".

"Either it targets US bases in the region and jeopardizes its future, or it targets Israel, but we see that its military capabilities are limited," he said.

The Israeli military said Iran launched around 100 drones against it, but its air defenses intercepted "most" of them outside Israeli territory.

Israel, which relies on US diplomatic and military support, carried out the attack despite Trump's public urging for it to give time for diplomacy.

Trump's Middle East pointman Steve Witkoff had been set to hold a sixth round of talks with Iran on Sunday in Oman.

A Western diplomat earlier this year described Iran's economy as "cataclysmic", saying the country had "a gigantic need for the lifting of sanctions, reforms, a cleanup of the banking system, foreign investments".

Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the strikes were "designed to kill President Trump's chances of striking a deal to contain the Iranian nuclear program".

"It is highly unlikely that in these conditions, Iran will proceed with the Omani-mediated talks scheduled for Sunday," she added.

But, after the strikes, a US official said Washington still hoped the Sunday talks would go ahead.

Trump urged Iran to "make a deal, before there is nothing left", warning that otherwise there will be more "death and destruction".

Vaez warned the strategy may not work.

"Rather than prompt Iranian concessions it could also lead to a doubling down by Tehran," he said.

"Setbacks could lead Iran to reconstitute their operations with a more determined effort to obtain a nuclear deterrent."



What to Know about the Latest Effort to End Türkiye's 40-year Kurdish Conflict

FILED - 02 November 2041, Hesse, Frankfurt_Main: A man displays a flag with the image of imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan at the Kurdish Newroz celebration in Frankfurt. Photo: Boris Roessler/dpa
FILED - 02 November 2041, Hesse, Frankfurt_Main: A man displays a flag with the image of imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan at the Kurdish Newroz celebration in Frankfurt. Photo: Boris Roessler/dpa
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What to Know about the Latest Effort to End Türkiye's 40-year Kurdish Conflict

FILED - 02 November 2041, Hesse, Frankfurt_Main: A man displays a flag with the image of imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan at the Kurdish Newroz celebration in Frankfurt. Photo: Boris Roessler/dpa
FILED - 02 November 2041, Hesse, Frankfurt_Main: A man displays a flag with the image of imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan at the Kurdish Newroz celebration in Frankfurt. Photo: Boris Roessler/dpa

A group of 30 Kurdish fighters clad in camouflage fatigues burned their weapons in a large cauldron in northern Iraq on Friday, in a symbolic gesture marking the first concrete step in an effort to end one of the Middle East’s longest-running insurgencies.

The ceremonial laying down of arms by members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK -- including 15 women — comes months after the group’s imprisoned leader, Abdullah Ocalan, called on it to disarm and disband as part of a new peace effort with Türkiye. Ocalan repeated that call in a video message to his fighters this week.

The process in Türkiye was initiated in October by Devlet Bahceli, a firebrand ultranationalist politician who has usually opposed any concessions to Kurdish identity or rights.

While Turkish officials have welcomed the first step toward the PKK’s disarmament, questions remain about the future of Kurdish fighters in Syria.

What is the PKK? The Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, has waged an armed insurgency against Türkiye since 1984, initially with the aim of establishing a Kurdish state in the southeast of the country. Over time, the objective evolved into a campaign for autonomy and rights for Kurds within Türkiye.

The conflict between militants and state forces, which has spread beyond Türkiye’s borders into Iraq and Syria, has killed tens of thousands of people. The PKK is considered to be a terrorist organization by Türkiye, the United States and the European Union.

Who is Ocalan? Abdullah Ocalan, who as a student of political science in Ankara became deeply involved in leftist movements, formed the PKK in 1978 as a Marxist organization. He fled to Syria in 1979, along with other PKK members, where he remained until 1998, when Syria expelled him under intense pressure from Türkiye.

Ocalan was captured in Kenya in 1999 and imprisoned on Imrali island in the Sea of Marmara, where he remains to this day. His death sentence for treason was commuted to a life term in prison after Türkiye abolished the death penalty.

The 76-year-old endures as a symbol for Kurdish independence and rights and continues to wield influence over the Kurdish movement, with past messages relayed through family members or lawyers resonating beyond Türkiye, in Iraq and Syria.

Push for peace

In October, Bahceli, a close ally of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, suggested Ocalan could be granted parole if he renounces violence and disbands the PKK.

It was a major shift for the hardline politician who had previously strongly supported the state’s military action against the militant group and its affiliates in neighboring Syria and rejected any notion of negotiation.

In a message delivered through senior officials of the pro-Kurdish People's Equality and Democracy Party, or DEM, Ocalan called on the PKK leadership to take the decision to disband and disarm in February.

The PKK announced a unilateral ceasefire in March in response to Ocalan’s call and later announced its decision to disarm.

It was not immediately clear what concessions, if any, the Kurdish groups would get in return. PKK officials have said they expect former fighters to be given a path to integrate into the political system in Türkiye.

There are also concerns that some splinter groups may emerge within the PKK and that attacks may continue.

Soon after Bahceli's announcement, the PKK claimed an attack on Türkiye’s key aerospace company outside of Ankara that killed several people.

Previous attempts

There have been several peace efforts between the Turkish state and the PKK over the years, including secret negotiations held in Oslo, Norway from 2009 until 2011. However, none have yielded results.

The last attempt to reach a peace deal took place between 2013 and 2015 with a series of talks between Turkish officials and Ocalan, who declared a ceasefire and withdrew fighters to bases in northern Iraq.

Turkish officials took steps to improve Kurdish rights, including allowing Kurdish-language broadcasts. The process collapsed in July 2015, after a series of violent attacks, including one by the ISIS group that killed 33 pro-Kurdish activists.

Since then, Türkiye has cracked down on its pro-Kurdish movement and has jailed thousands of people, including the former leader of the main pro-Kurdish political party, Selahattin Demirtas, over alleged links to the PKK.

Reshaping the region

The latest peace effort comes at a time when Türkiye and the Kurds are both seeking security to face the challenges in the Middle East.

The renewed peace initiative unfolds amid fundamental changes reshaping the region, including the reconfiguration of power in Syria after the toppling of President Bashar Assad, the weakening of the Hezbollah militant movement in Lebanon, and the ongoing Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.

Türkiye strongly supports a deal reached between Syria’s new administration and the Kurdish-led and US backed Syrian Democratic Forces under which the SDF forces would merge with the new Syrian national army. The US envoy to Syria told The Associated Press this week that the sides remain at odds over the merger.

Hamish Kinnear, Senior Middle East and North Africa Analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft, said Ocalan’s decision to abandon the armed struggle coincides with a period when the PKK’s leverage is weak due to military setbacks and regional isolation.

“The PKK’s armed struggle was already faltering in the face of advances by Türkiye’s military, while its popularity among its traditional base was in decline,” Kinnear said. ”Ultimately, the peace talks were a useful off ramp in which improvement of Kurdish rights could still be pursued."

However, some believe the main aim of the reconciliation effort is for Erdogan’s government to garner Kurdish support for a new constitution that would allow him to remain in power beyond 2028, when his term ends.

Bahceli has openly called for a new constitution, saying it was essential to keep Erdogan in power for Türkiye’s future. Erdogan and Bahceli are reportedly seeking parliamentary support from the DEM.