Lebanese Ex-FM Boueiz to Asharq Al-Awsat: Khaddam, Chehabi Held Secret Meetings with Hrawi to Demand Hariri’s Nomination as PM

Fares Boueiz and Asharq Al-Awsat Editor-in-Chief Ghassan Charbel during the interview. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Fares Boueiz and Asharq Al-Awsat Editor-in-Chief Ghassan Charbel during the interview. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Lebanese Ex-FM Boueiz to Asharq Al-Awsat: Khaddam, Chehabi Held Secret Meetings with Hrawi to Demand Hariri’s Nomination as PM

Fares Boueiz and Asharq Al-Awsat Editor-in-Chief Ghassan Charbel during the interview. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Fares Boueiz and Asharq Al-Awsat Editor-in-Chief Ghassan Charbel during the interview. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

I recalled a series of interviews I had with late Lebanese President Elias Hrawi, who spent nine years in office. Among the many topics, we discussed was slain former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and his tumultuous time in office, including his strained relations with Syria and Lebanese former President Emile Lahoud.

As I recalled those interviews, it occurred to me that I had never approached former Lebanese former Foreign Minister Fares Boueiz, who is also Hrawi’s son-in-law, about his experience during those tumultuous years. Boueiz served as foreign minister for eight years, during which Lebanon experienced local and regional upheaval.

What stood out the most for me during our interview was his remark that French former President Jacques Chirac was Hariri’s man in Paris and that then Syrian Vice President Abdulhalim Khaddam was Hariri’s man in Damascus. He also revealed that Damascus had agreed to Hariri becoming prime minister after it had reservations over him.

Divisions in Syria

Hariri’s name had been floated around to become prime minister since the time the Taif Accord was signed in 1989. His name was proposed during the term of PM Omar Karami, but his government would have faced an arduous task of dismantling the militias that were active during the 1975-90 civil war.

Given the challenges, Hariri’s nomination was postponed, Boueiz told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“I believe Syria had reservations over his name. Not the whole of Syria, but some officials,” he added.

So, Karami became prime minister and his government eventually collapsed due to the economic crisis. Hariri’s name was again proposed as his replacement.

No consensus emerged over Hariri’s potential appointment. “It was a complicated situation. We understood that his appointment must be accompanied by certain conditions and after parliamentary elections are held,” Boueiz explained.

“In other words, a new parliament must have been sworn in and Hariri would not have been able to ensure the election of lawmakers who are loyal to him,” he added.

“We later found out that it was impossible for Hariri to be named ahead of the elections, which would ensure the election of a parliament that was close to Syria,” he went on to say. Rashid al-Solh then became prime minister.

Boueiz said he was opposed to the electoral law that the polls were based upon. “Whenever I brought up the issue of amending the law, I was met with total opposition. I couldn’t understand it until I finally went to Damascus and saw the whole picture,” he revealed.

“Hrawi told me that my opposition of the elections was harming his relations with Syria because ‘it believed that I was the one encouraging your positions,’” he stated.

Boueiz and several Maronite politicians eventually headed to Damascus to clear the air. The FM stood firm and clashed with Khaddam, who also held on to his position. Boueiz even threatened to resign as foreign minister due to the dispute. Seeing an impasse, Khaddam contacted chief of staff Hikmat al-Chehabi, whom Boueiz said was notoriously difficult to negotiate with.

“Chehabi informed me that it would be a shame for me to end my political career,” recalled Boueiz, saying he felt threatened. He retorted: “I cannot imagine my political future away from my people and their opinions.” The delegation then returned to Lebanon.

“Hrawi hoped that I would not put myself at loggerheads with Damascus and to not implicate him in the process,” said Boueiz.

He eventually found out why the Syrians wanted the elections to be held as soon as possible. They feared Hariri’s appointment as PM so they wanted to form a parliament that was loyal to them so that they could keep him in check.

Hrawi, for his part, supported Hariri’s appointment because he believed that no other Sunni figure knew how to tackle Lebanon’s economic problems. He believed that Salim al-Hoss, although an honest figure, did not always take the best approach and was slow to act. He was not up to the task of fixing the economy. Rashid al-Solh was not part of the equation and Omar Karami’s political career was in tatters.

So, Hariri was the best option. When Hrawi sensed that Syria had reservations over him, he directly headed to Damascus for talks with President Hafez al-Assad. He demanded Hariri’s appointment, but Assad told him to hold on.

“Two days later, Hrawi revealed to me that a strange thing had happened. Khaddam had asked that they meet him in secret. I was bewildered. Surely, Syrian intelligence would know that he had crossed into Lebanon the moment he passed the border. They would even know of his arrival at Beirut airport. How could he possibly visit Lebanon in secret? Was he conspiring against the regime?” wondered Boueiz.

“At any rate, we didn’t understand the need for secrecy. Khaddam arrived the next day and Hrawi later confided in me about what they discussed. ‘He informed me that I must insist on Assad that Hariri be named prime minister,’” he continued.

Two days later, Chehabi requested a secret meeting with Hrawi. “This was strange indeed,” said Boueiz. “It was no secret that Khaddam was involved in the Lebanese file and that he often visited Lebanon. Chehabi, on the other hand, was only involved in handling the Lebanese army and never visited Lebanon.”

Soon after the meeting was held, Hrawi revealed to Boueiz that Chehabi had also demanded that he insist on Hariri’s appointment.

“This was very odd because Chehabi did not involve himself in these issues. Hrawi told me that there appears to be a problem in Syria. It seems it was split between a camp that supported Hariri and another that didn’t. It was obvious that Khaddam and Chehabi backed Hariri, while the other camp, which we were not aware of, didn’t want him at all. In the end, one had to go back to Assad and see what he wanted,” said Boueiz.

These were the first signs of a dispute in Syria. Others emerged during an Islamic summit in Tehran in 1993. Hariri had become prime minister at that point.

Boueiz recalled how he had met with head of the Syrian Republican Guard Adnan Makhlouf at the event. “He called out to me: ‘You are the bold one.’ Then, along with several senior officers, we strolled the conference hall and he began to insult some senior Syrian officials, including Khaddam, Chehabi and Ghazi Kanaan. He told me that ‘this Hariri was buying the Syrian regime,’” meaning some officials were being bribed.

Boueiz returned to Beirut and informed Hrawi of what happened. This indicated deep divisions within the Syrian command. “This means that from now on, you must listen to Assad alone,” Boueiz advised Hrawi. “We were convinced that a major dispute was happening in Syria and that Hariri was at the heart of it.”

A problem called ‘Emile Lahoud’

I asked Boueiz about Emile Lahoud, whom Hrawi had appointed as army commander at the beginning of his tenure. Lahoud was known as a staunch Damascus ally, a position that would eventually put him at odds with Hariri.

Boueiz said Hrawi had asked him about his opinion of the various candidates for the position of army chief, including Michel Aoun and Lahoud. “Lahoud is a naval officer in a country that does not have a strong navy,” said Boueiz. “I don’t recall that Lahoud had ever waged any actual battles. Aoun, on the other hand, had seen battles his entire life.”

“I asked Hrawi why he was asking me about my opinion, and he said that it appears that late former president Rene Mouawad had promised Lahoud that he would be named army chief. The Syrians also made the same pledge.”

“Lahoud put Syria at ease because he was not politicized and didn’t really deal in politics. He communicated with Damascus on a daily basis through then deputy intelligence chief Jamil al-Sayyed. He knew in detail what Damascus wanted. From there, I believe is when trust was built between them,” Boueiz said.

“Lahoud knew early on that a camp in Syria was opposed to Hariri. He built his policies based on this. Lahoud actually had no personal problems with Hariri, and he didn’t even deal in politics. He had no reason to have differences with Hariri except for the fact that one camp in Syria did not want him,” he continued.

Chirac and Hariri

I had to ask Boueiz about Chirac’s involvement in Lebanon in support of his friend, Hariri.

“Of course, Chirac was a close friend of Hariri. When Hrawi’s term neared its end, Chirac sensed – perhaps through Hariri’s request – that he needed to act because Lahoud appeared to be the most likely successor. This would not be good for Hariri, to whom Lahoud showed unconcealed animosity,” continued the former FM.

Before the end of Hrawi’s term, Chirac visited Lebanon. During a protocol visit to the Foreign Ministry, the French leader requested that he and Boueiz share a car ride to the presidential palace.

“In the car, he told me: ‘You are Lebanon’s hope and Hariri is also Lebanon’s big hope. If you don’t reach an agreement, a military figure will be elected, and you will both be destroyed.’ I smiled at him and replied: ‘Mr. President, I want to assure you that I have no differences with Hariri. We have no personal disputes at all. But Hariri, had from the start, sought hegemony. I personally, cannot tolerate such an approach, especially when it violates the constitution, laws, norms and balances.’”

“I may have been one of the few politicians who didn’t benefit from Hariri. I feared that the decision to name Lahoud had already been taken. Chirac informed me that nothing yet had been decided. He requested that the three of us meet to put disputes behind us. I agreed.”

Later that night Boueiz, Chirac and Hariri met and the FM laid out his grievances. He explained that he viewed Lebanon from the angle of the republic, while Hariri had a different approach. He explained that he came from a legal background, while Hariri was a businessman and sometimes businessmen cross legal lines so that they can complete their affairs quickly.

He also explained the delicate sectarian balances in the country, saying he refused to allow Hariri to violate them because he would be letting down his sectarian community. He noted that Hariri had not lived in Lebanon long enough to understand these balances.

Chirac had hoped that Boueiz and Hariri would reach an understanding. Should they forge an alliance, they would be able to greatly influence the political scene. Boueiz was reluctant because he was convinced that the decision to elect Lahoud had already been taken and would not be impacted by political shifts.

“The meeting ended, and the coming days proved that I was right and that the decision over Lahoud had been made,” Boueiz said.



From Wells to Budget: Where Does Libya’s Oil Money Go?

Tugboat Al-Hani begins operations at Zueitina port (National Oil Corporation)
Tugboat Al-Hani begins operations at Zueitina port (National Oil Corporation)
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From Wells to Budget: Where Does Libya’s Oil Money Go?

Tugboat Al-Hani begins operations at Zueitina port (National Oil Corporation)
Tugboat Al-Hani begins operations at Zueitina port (National Oil Corporation)

Libya depends on oil for nearly 98% of its income. Yet a central question persists: How are those revenues collected and spent in a country divided between rival governments? And why do Libyans complain of poverty when their country holds Africa’s largest oil reserves and produces and exports about 1.4 million barrels a day?

The process starts with the National Oil Corporation, which collects proceeds from crude oil and gas sales in US dollars and deposits them in accounts at the Libyan Foreign Bank. The money is then transferred to the Central Bank of Libya's accounts in Tripoli, recorded as state budget sovereign revenue, and converted into Libyan dinars.

The dollar trades at 6.36 dinars at the official rate, compared with 9.12 on the parallel market.

The Finance Ministry in Tripoli then issues spending authorizations under approved financial arrangements, after which the central bank releases funds to ministries and other state bodies through the main budget chapters.

Libya’s oil export revenues have swung sharply in recent years, ranging between $18 billion and $22 billion. They rose to about $18 billion in the first half of this year, nearly double the level in the same period last year, according to the Economy Ministry in the interim Government of National Unity.

Libyan oil expert Mohamed al-Shahati attributed the increase during that period to the war involving Iran.

Where is the breakdown?

Economists say Libya’s dependence on oil as its near-exclusive source of income lies at the heart of the crisis.

Ayoub al-Farsi, an economics professor at the University of Benghazi, said Libya showed how excessive reliance on natural resources could turn into a complex financial crisis when combined with political fragmentation and a lack of economic diversification.

“The Libyan economy is a clear example of how excessive dependence on natural resources can become a complex financial crisis,” he said, adding that political fragmentation and the absence of diversification had created conditions that directly affected people’s lives.

Al-Farsi, a member of the Central Bank of Libya’s Monetary Policy Committee, said the economy was built around a rentier-state model that depended almost entirely on oil exports to fund the treasury and provide foreign currency.

That dependence, he told Asharq Al-Awsat, had created deep structural distortions.

Agriculture and industry had been marginalized, the state bureaucracy had expanded to absorb workers into unproductive public-sector jobs, and the country had grown heavily dependent on imports for most consumer goods, he said.

Industrial activity remains limited, largely confined to the private sector and small-scale production. Critics also point to a market dominated by a small number of traders and importers, helping imported goods crowd out local production.

At protests across Libyan cities, the question is often the same: Where is the oil money going? Why are people struggling in an energy-producing country?

Al-Shahati said part of the answer lies in the difference between the value of the oil Libya produces and the amount that actually reaches the state treasury.

“Not every barrel produced in Libya is converted directly into a dollar entering the public treasury, because foreign partners have a share,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Foreign companies have become production partners under various contractual arrangements, he said.

He also pointed to a stark contradiction: Libya produces oil, yet depends heavily on imports of gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum products to meet domestic demand.

That means a growing share of the country’s resources is converted into foreign currency to pay for fuel imports.

Al-Shahati said another problem was the lack of a regularly published, unified, and easy-to-read account that answers basic questions, such as: What was the total value of the oil produced? How much went to foreign partners? How much was exported for the state? How much went to the domestic market? And how much net revenue was actually available for public spending?

“The figures in circulation provide parts of the picture,” he said, “but they do not always show the full flow of revenues from the wellhead to the state’s public accounts.”

Libya’s oil fields are concentrated mainly in the eastern Sirte Basin, which holds about 82% of its oil reserves, as well as in the Murzuq Basin in the southwest and offshore areas along the coast.

Fuel and power crises

Those weaknesses in the oil revenue chain are unfolding as Libya grapples with a severe electricity crisis.

The country has suffered several “blackouts” in recent days, with some areas going without electricity for more than 17 hours a day.

Researcher Ezzedine Mokhtar sees the power cuts as one part of a wider pattern of recurring financial failures, including fuel shortages.

He blamed the hardship facing many Libyans on “corruption” and “unlimited spending” by two rival governments competing for power in the country’s east and west.

He also cited “oil smuggling through Arkenu, whose revenues go to specific individuals rather than the state treasury.”

Mokhtar said Libya’s subsidy system was another core problem, with more than 60% of the country’s budget going to fuel subsidies.

He called on the Tripoli government to phase out those subsidies gradually and to draw up a national plan to develop the workforce.

“We have no industrial skills in anything,” he said. “We import everything — yogurt, dairy products, fruit, vegetables, frozen fish, and even underwear. Everything comes from abroad.”

Libya ranks 10th globally in proven oil reserves, with about 48.3 billion barrels, according to Worldometer.

The UN Panel of Experts said in its latest report on Libya, covering October 2024 to February 2026, that Arkenu had moved at least $3 billion in oil revenues to bank accounts outside Libya between January 2024 and November 2025.

According to the report, Arkenu was established in 2023 as a private company and is indirectly controlled by Saddam Haftar, deputy commander-in-chief of the Libyan National Army. It faces accusations of “oil smuggling.”

Reuters previously investigated the company and concluded, based on shipping documents, London Stock Exchange Group data, and information from Kpler, that some oil revenues were being diverted away from the Central Bank of Libya.

How are revenues distributed?

Oil revenues are distributed across the four main chapters of the state budget, according to experts and economists.

Chapter One, salaries and wages, takes the largest share. It covers public-sector employees across eastern, western, and southern Libya through the unified national identification number system.

Chapter Two covers operating expenses for ministries and public institutions.

Chapter Three covers subsidies, including fuel, water, and electricity.

Chapter Four covers development and projects, including infrastructure, as well as allocations to the National Oil Corporation to sustain and increase production.

Al-Shahati said 26% of oil revenues went toward importing fuel products, equivalent to about $7 billion if crude traded at $70 a barrel.

This year, he said, the figure could rise to between $8 billion and $9 billion because oil prices had climbed above $85 a barrel and the gap between crude prices and diesel and gasoline prices had widened amid shortages.

He also pointed to higher domestic consumption driven by economic growth and a rise in smuggling.

A second problem, al-Shahati said, is the absence of an approved national budget, which would make it possible to determine how spending should be allocated among population groups and regions.

“What is clear is that the main cities control most spending,” he said.

He also pointed to “a large and obvious imbalance” in salaries across Libya’s three regions, job grades, and types of employment.

Those gaps, he said, risk widening financial divisions between social groups.

Even an agreement to unify development spending did not appear to be properly implemented because there were no clear standards and no comprehensive budget.

“There are no criteria for distributing oil revenues,” al-Shahati said. “The distribution process is random and unsustainable.”

Libya fell to 177th out of 182 countries in the 2025 Corruption Perceptions Index, from 173rd out of 180 countries in 2024, reflecting worsening corruption and no tangible improvement over the past two years.

Pressure on the local economy

A report by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Libya highlighted deep structural strains in the economy, driven by high public spending, near-total dependence on oil and gas revenues, and mounting pressure from food, fuel, and electricity prices.

The report, submitted to the UN Security Council on Aug. 17, covers the period from April 1 to July 28.

Citing the International Monetary Fund, it said Libya’s fiscal deficit reached 30% of gross domestic product last year, while public debt climbed to 146% of GDP.

Inflation also rose into double digits, eroding purchasing power.

The UN report noted unjustified increases in fuel consumption by military and security agencies and the energy sector, as well as repeated double purchasing.

The cost of institutional division

Libya’s political and institutional split and the presence of multiple authorities have made the economic crisis worse, al-Farsi said.

The distortions, he said, were no longer merely structural.

They had created parallel public finances and pushed consumer spending higher to meet the demands of rival authorities, sending salaries and subsidies to unprecedented levels.

Repeated shutdowns of oil fields in previous years, combined with lower actual revenues, pushed financial authorities toward deficit financing and higher public debt, al-Farsi said.

That flooded the market with money without a corresponding rise in domestic production.

Oil revenues reached $21.9 billion in 2025, according to the National Oil Corporation, up from $18.6 billion in 2024, an increase of 15%.

Al-Farsi said the deterioration in public finances had left monetary authorities in a difficult position and forced them into emergency measures to protect reserves and contain the deficit.

The result, he said, was a weaker national currency, liquidity shortages and a collapse in confidence.

Development tools had also been paralyzed.

“Monetary policy shifted from an instrument for stimulating growth and investment into a tool for managing daily crises,” he said.

Why has the crisis not been solved?

Economists point to several reasons.

Al-Shahati put “corruption spreading on an unprecedented scale” near the top of the list.

“Corruption is no longer confined to the margins,” he said. “It has come to dominate the core of public finances in key sectors, obstructing any attempt at reform.”

He also blamed the absence of an institutional vision following the breakdown of middle management, which had once linked fiscal and monetary policy to economic realities and provided unified political backing.

Policies, he said, had become detached from the economy and lost their ability to restore balance.

Conventional reforms that had worked elsewhere would not work in Libya, al-Shahati said, because the country lacked a central political authority capable of building an institutional vision and curbing corruption that had spread through both the state and private sector.

Al-Farsi said Libya could not escape its fiscal and monetary crisis without addressing the roots of the problem.

That meant unifying the management of public finances, curbing government spending, and launching genuine structural reforms that would gradually shift Libya from consuming oil rents to building a diversified economy.

Mokhtar also called on the Tripoli government to develop a strategic plan to make better use of human resources and support small and medium-sized industries.

For him, breaking Libya’s dependence on oil revenues is part of the way out.

Masoud Suleiman, chairman of Libya’s National Oil Corporation, said in media remarks last week that the country needed between $30 billion and $40 billion in investment to develop untapped oil and gas resources.

The corporation, he said, aims to raise production to 2 million barrels a day by 2030.


Bandar Abbas, Iran’s Trade Hub on Hormuz Thrust to Frontline of US War

Fishermen check their nets and small boats on the seashore in the port city of Bandar Abbas, in southern Iran on August 10, 2026. (AFP)
Fishermen check their nets and small boats on the seashore in the port city of Bandar Abbas, in southern Iran on August 10, 2026. (AFP)
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Bandar Abbas, Iran’s Trade Hub on Hormuz Thrust to Frontline of US War

Fishermen check their nets and small boats on the seashore in the port city of Bandar Abbas, in southern Iran on August 10, 2026. (AFP)
Fishermen check their nets and small boats on the seashore in the port city of Bandar Abbas, in southern Iran on August 10, 2026. (AFP)

With a long shoreline on the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's southern trade hub of Bandar Abbas has found itself at the frontlines of the war with the United States, with residents struggling to revive livelihoods battered by months of fighting.

Like elsewhere in Iran, economic strain has squeezed households since US-Israeli strikes triggered the Middle East war on February 28. But unlike much of the country, the port city of around half a million people has remained exposed to fighting even after an April 8 ceasefire brought relief elsewhere.

But despite a lull in hostilities in July, residents still feel squeezed. Saeed Tajik, 42, used to work at a shipyard before losing his job and turning to driving a taxi.

"The prices of housing and food have become extremely high. Almost all the basics -- rice, yoghurt, and oil -- have doubled," said Tajik.

Fuel shortages have long been common in southern Iran, where authorities restrict supplies in an effort to curb widespread fuel smuggling.

But now, "the queues have become longer ... it happens that we wait in the long line for fuel only to get told 'there is none' upon arriving," Tajik said as he drove past a station where motorists waited under the punishing summer heat.

Hormuz has emerged as a central flashpoint after an April ceasefire and June framework deal failed to resolve disagreements between Washington and Tehran over the future management of the strait.

During the war, US strikes hit bridges, highways and railway infrastructure around Bandar Abbas until mid-July, in what analysts saw as attempts to cut off the city and disrupt Iranian military logistics in the south.

- 'Nothing left' -

Inside the city, under a towering concrete statue of two armed men with their arms trained towards Hormuz waters, economic strains play out in long queues snaking outside petrol stations and soaring prices squeezing shoppers in local markets.

The city's repeatedly hit airport remained largely closed until August 15, leaving travelers facing arduous road journeys, sometimes combined with flights and boat crossings.

Outside the city, construction crews still toil under the sweltering summer sun to repair the Gachin bridge, split by a US strike, as cars rumble along a dusty detour below.

Along the waterfront, traditional wooden vessels known as lenjes sit moored alongside fishing and commercial boats, part of a centuries-old trading network linking southern Iran with Arab states across the Gulf.

Arash Tondro, 45, used his lenj to carry Iranian fresh and dried fruit to the United Arab Emirates and return with household goods and other imports.

"My income dropped to zero at the beginning of the war," said Tondro, who later rerouted some trade through Oman's Khasab port as regional seaways were disrupted and "many of the lenjes were hit by drones".

After the UAE suspended trade with Iran on Tuesday following a missile attack on a ship that Tehran denied carrying out, Tondro said he was again unsure how his work would be impacted.

"People in the south mostly rely on trade or fishing. If you take the sea and trade away from them, there is practically nothing left. We don't have agriculture here; whatever there is comes from the sea," he said.

- 'No sales' -

As night falls and August's oppressive heat begins to ease, fish vendors set up along a busy street, laying out shark, tuna and shrimp as the smell of the day's catch hangs in the humid air.

Among them is 22-year-old Anoush Mallah, who recently moved onto the street after soaring rents forced him to close his shop in one of the city's bazaars.

"Business has been terrible since the war started. There are no sales, it's very weak," he told AFP.

"People are short of money. The fishermen aren't going fishing either."

Many fishermen around Bandar Abbas only began returning to sea in recent weeks, after months ashore for fear of being caught in the crossfire of US-Iran fighting.

Diplomatic efforts have so far failed to end the war. For Mallah, the uncertainty only adds to the strain.

"Let it (the war) start and get some result; right now, we're just left in limbo," he said.


The Ethiopian Dam Dispute and Egypt’s ‘Right to Self-Defense’

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty. Photo: Foreign Ministry
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty. Photo: Foreign Ministry
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The Ethiopian Dam Dispute and Egypt’s ‘Right to Self-Defense’

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty. Photo: Foreign Ministry
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty. Photo: Foreign Ministry

Over the past two weeks, Egypt has repeatedly stressed its right to prevent any actions by Addis Ababa on the Nile River that could harm its water interests, stressing that it possesses the “right to self-defense” over Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

According to experts who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat, Egypt’s signaling means that it “will not hesitate to use all legitimate means to safeguard its water security.”

They explained that the message is a stern warning to Ethiopia and suggests that Cairo is seeking to shift from a policy of protesting Ethiopian measures to preventive deterrence, aimed at stopping the establishment of a new status quo on the Nile.

New Egyptian Warning

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said that “Egypt will not allow the construction of additional dams ... that affect its water interests,” stressing Cairo’s commitment to a legally binding agreement that guarantees its water rights.

In a television interview on Wednesday evening, Abdelatty said that Egypt does not oppose African countries’ right to development, noting Cairo’s participation in dam and infrastructure projects in several Nile Basin states. However, he stressed the need to balance the right to development with the rights of downstream countries.

He also underscored Egypt’s commitment to protecting its water interests. “We have the right to self-defense to protect our interests and water security,” said the minister. “We will not accept any agreement regarding the Nile River unless it is legally binding,” he reiterated.

Mohamed Hegazy, a member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs and a former assistant foreign minister, says the right of self-defense is protected under international law after all peaceful means have been exhausted.

According to Hegazy, the core message is that Cairo still prefers agreement and negotiation, but it no longer accepts using negotiations to impose a fait accompli.

He argued that the most significant aspect of Abdelatty’s statements is that they send three simultaneous messages - Rejection of unilateral measures, rejection of additional dams, and insistence on the right of self-defense to protect water security.

Hussein El-Behairy, an African affairs expert at the National Center for Middle East Studies, said the minister’s recent statements reaffirm Egypt’s right to defend its historical and water rights in the Nile by whatever means the Egyptian state deems appropriate to preserve what Egyptians view as a matter of life and death.

Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Reuters

Escalating Egyptian Position

This is the third time Egypt has signaled the possibility of using its “right to self-defense” and preventing dam construction on the Nile.

On August 16, Egypt’s state news agency quoted an unnamed Egyptian official as saying that Cairo “will neither accept nor allow any party to control the flow of Nile waters to downstream countries,” stressing that the Egyptian state possesses multiple tools capable of protecting its people’s interests in the Nile.

The statement came in response to remarks attributed to Ethiopian Minister of Water and Energy Habtamu Itefa concerning the construction of additional dams on the Nile and control over water flows to downstream states, namely Egypt and Sudan.

Earlier, on August 4, Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Hani Sewilam stated during a press conference that Egypt “will not allow the construction of new Ethiopian dams on the Nile River.”

He said: “It is well known that Ethiopia has plans to build additional dams, but will the Egyptian state allow this? No.”

According to Hegazy, the ball is now in Ethiopia’s court. If Addis Ababa agrees to resume serious negotiations leading to a legally binding agreement on GERD, the crisis can be contained.

However, if Ethiopia continues to create new realities on the Nile, the scope for a diplomatic solution will narrow, making risk management and deterrence a more prominent part of Egypt’s strategy.

El-Behairy does not expect the escalation to pave the way for new negotiations on GERD unless the Ethiopian government is willing to make concessions in response to Cairo’s demands. These demands include reaching a legally binding agreement that guarantees Egypt’s water rights during periods of drought and severe drought, and providing Egypt with information regarding the operation of the dam in a manner that does not harm its water interests.