Lebanese Ex-FM Boueiz to Asharq Al-Awsat: Khaddam, Chehabi Held Secret Meetings with Hrawi to Demand Hariri’s Nomination as PM

Fares Boueiz and Asharq Al-Awsat Editor-in-Chief Ghassan Charbel during the interview. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Fares Boueiz and Asharq Al-Awsat Editor-in-Chief Ghassan Charbel during the interview. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Lebanese Ex-FM Boueiz to Asharq Al-Awsat: Khaddam, Chehabi Held Secret Meetings with Hrawi to Demand Hariri’s Nomination as PM

Fares Boueiz and Asharq Al-Awsat Editor-in-Chief Ghassan Charbel during the interview. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Fares Boueiz and Asharq Al-Awsat Editor-in-Chief Ghassan Charbel during the interview. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

I recalled a series of interviews I had with late Lebanese President Elias Hrawi, who spent nine years in office. Among the many topics, we discussed was slain former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and his tumultuous time in office, including his strained relations with Syria and Lebanese former President Emile Lahoud.

As I recalled those interviews, it occurred to me that I had never approached former Lebanese former Foreign Minister Fares Boueiz, who is also Hrawi’s son-in-law, about his experience during those tumultuous years. Boueiz served as foreign minister for eight years, during which Lebanon experienced local and regional upheaval.

What stood out the most for me during our interview was his remark that French former President Jacques Chirac was Hariri’s man in Paris and that then Syrian Vice President Abdulhalim Khaddam was Hariri’s man in Damascus. He also revealed that Damascus had agreed to Hariri becoming prime minister after it had reservations over him.

Divisions in Syria

Hariri’s name had been floated around to become prime minister since the time the Taif Accord was signed in 1989. His name was proposed during the term of PM Omar Karami, but his government would have faced an arduous task of dismantling the militias that were active during the 1975-90 civil war.

Given the challenges, Hariri’s nomination was postponed, Boueiz told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“I believe Syria had reservations over his name. Not the whole of Syria, but some officials,” he added.

So, Karami became prime minister and his government eventually collapsed due to the economic crisis. Hariri’s name was again proposed as his replacement.

No consensus emerged over Hariri’s potential appointment. “It was a complicated situation. We understood that his appointment must be accompanied by certain conditions and after parliamentary elections are held,” Boueiz explained.

“In other words, a new parliament must have been sworn in and Hariri would not have been able to ensure the election of lawmakers who are loyal to him,” he added.

“We later found out that it was impossible for Hariri to be named ahead of the elections, which would ensure the election of a parliament that was close to Syria,” he went on to say. Rashid al-Solh then became prime minister.

Boueiz said he was opposed to the electoral law that the polls were based upon. “Whenever I brought up the issue of amending the law, I was met with total opposition. I couldn’t understand it until I finally went to Damascus and saw the whole picture,” he revealed.

“Hrawi told me that my opposition of the elections was harming his relations with Syria because ‘it believed that I was the one encouraging your positions,’” he stated.

Boueiz and several Maronite politicians eventually headed to Damascus to clear the air. The FM stood firm and clashed with Khaddam, who also held on to his position. Boueiz even threatened to resign as foreign minister due to the dispute. Seeing an impasse, Khaddam contacted chief of staff Hikmat al-Chehabi, whom Boueiz said was notoriously difficult to negotiate with.

“Chehabi informed me that it would be a shame for me to end my political career,” recalled Boueiz, saying he felt threatened. He retorted: “I cannot imagine my political future away from my people and their opinions.” The delegation then returned to Lebanon.

“Hrawi hoped that I would not put myself at loggerheads with Damascus and to not implicate him in the process,” said Boueiz.

He eventually found out why the Syrians wanted the elections to be held as soon as possible. They feared Hariri’s appointment as PM so they wanted to form a parliament that was loyal to them so that they could keep him in check.

Hrawi, for his part, supported Hariri’s appointment because he believed that no other Sunni figure knew how to tackle Lebanon’s economic problems. He believed that Salim al-Hoss, although an honest figure, did not always take the best approach and was slow to act. He was not up to the task of fixing the economy. Rashid al-Solh was not part of the equation and Omar Karami’s political career was in tatters.

So, Hariri was the best option. When Hrawi sensed that Syria had reservations over him, he directly headed to Damascus for talks with President Hafez al-Assad. He demanded Hariri’s appointment, but Assad told him to hold on.

“Two days later, Hrawi revealed to me that a strange thing had happened. Khaddam had asked that they meet him in secret. I was bewildered. Surely, Syrian intelligence would know that he had crossed into Lebanon the moment he passed the border. They would even know of his arrival at Beirut airport. How could he possibly visit Lebanon in secret? Was he conspiring against the regime?” wondered Boueiz.

“At any rate, we didn’t understand the need for secrecy. Khaddam arrived the next day and Hrawi later confided in me about what they discussed. ‘He informed me that I must insist on Assad that Hariri be named prime minister,’” he continued.

Two days later, Chehabi requested a secret meeting with Hrawi. “This was strange indeed,” said Boueiz. “It was no secret that Khaddam was involved in the Lebanese file and that he often visited Lebanon. Chehabi, on the other hand, was only involved in handling the Lebanese army and never visited Lebanon.”

Soon after the meeting was held, Hrawi revealed to Boueiz that Chehabi had also demanded that he insist on Hariri’s appointment.

“This was very odd because Chehabi did not involve himself in these issues. Hrawi told me that there appears to be a problem in Syria. It seems it was split between a camp that supported Hariri and another that didn’t. It was obvious that Khaddam and Chehabi backed Hariri, while the other camp, which we were not aware of, didn’t want him at all. In the end, one had to go back to Assad and see what he wanted,” said Boueiz.

These were the first signs of a dispute in Syria. Others emerged during an Islamic summit in Tehran in 1993. Hariri had become prime minister at that point.

Boueiz recalled how he had met with head of the Syrian Republican Guard Adnan Makhlouf at the event. “He called out to me: ‘You are the bold one.’ Then, along with several senior officers, we strolled the conference hall and he began to insult some senior Syrian officials, including Khaddam, Chehabi and Ghazi Kanaan. He told me that ‘this Hariri was buying the Syrian regime,’” meaning some officials were being bribed.

Boueiz returned to Beirut and informed Hrawi of what happened. This indicated deep divisions within the Syrian command. “This means that from now on, you must listen to Assad alone,” Boueiz advised Hrawi. “We were convinced that a major dispute was happening in Syria and that Hariri was at the heart of it.”

A problem called ‘Emile Lahoud’

I asked Boueiz about Emile Lahoud, whom Hrawi had appointed as army commander at the beginning of his tenure. Lahoud was known as a staunch Damascus ally, a position that would eventually put him at odds with Hariri.

Boueiz said Hrawi had asked him about his opinion of the various candidates for the position of army chief, including Michel Aoun and Lahoud. “Lahoud is a naval officer in a country that does not have a strong navy,” said Boueiz. “I don’t recall that Lahoud had ever waged any actual battles. Aoun, on the other hand, had seen battles his entire life.”

“I asked Hrawi why he was asking me about my opinion, and he said that it appears that late former president Rene Mouawad had promised Lahoud that he would be named army chief. The Syrians also made the same pledge.”

“Lahoud put Syria at ease because he was not politicized and didn’t really deal in politics. He communicated with Damascus on a daily basis through then deputy intelligence chief Jamil al-Sayyed. He knew in detail what Damascus wanted. From there, I believe is when trust was built between them,” Boueiz said.

“Lahoud knew early on that a camp in Syria was opposed to Hariri. He built his policies based on this. Lahoud actually had no personal problems with Hariri, and he didn’t even deal in politics. He had no reason to have differences with Hariri except for the fact that one camp in Syria did not want him,” he continued.

Chirac and Hariri

I had to ask Boueiz about Chirac’s involvement in Lebanon in support of his friend, Hariri.

“Of course, Chirac was a close friend of Hariri. When Hrawi’s term neared its end, Chirac sensed – perhaps through Hariri’s request – that he needed to act because Lahoud appeared to be the most likely successor. This would not be good for Hariri, to whom Lahoud showed unconcealed animosity,” continued the former FM.

Before the end of Hrawi’s term, Chirac visited Lebanon. During a protocol visit to the Foreign Ministry, the French leader requested that he and Boueiz share a car ride to the presidential palace.

“In the car, he told me: ‘You are Lebanon’s hope and Hariri is also Lebanon’s big hope. If you don’t reach an agreement, a military figure will be elected, and you will both be destroyed.’ I smiled at him and replied: ‘Mr. President, I want to assure you that I have no differences with Hariri. We have no personal disputes at all. But Hariri, had from the start, sought hegemony. I personally, cannot tolerate such an approach, especially when it violates the constitution, laws, norms and balances.’”

“I may have been one of the few politicians who didn’t benefit from Hariri. I feared that the decision to name Lahoud had already been taken. Chirac informed me that nothing yet had been decided. He requested that the three of us meet to put disputes behind us. I agreed.”

Later that night Boueiz, Chirac and Hariri met and the FM laid out his grievances. He explained that he viewed Lebanon from the angle of the republic, while Hariri had a different approach. He explained that he came from a legal background, while Hariri was a businessman and sometimes businessmen cross legal lines so that they can complete their affairs quickly.

He also explained the delicate sectarian balances in the country, saying he refused to allow Hariri to violate them because he would be letting down his sectarian community. He noted that Hariri had not lived in Lebanon long enough to understand these balances.

Chirac had hoped that Boueiz and Hariri would reach an understanding. Should they forge an alliance, they would be able to greatly influence the political scene. Boueiz was reluctant because he was convinced that the decision to elect Lahoud had already been taken and would not be impacted by political shifts.

“The meeting ended, and the coming days proved that I was right and that the decision over Lahoud had been made,” Boueiz said.



Ukrainians, Scattered across Europe, Trapped in Limbo by War

A man walks past snow-covered plants at the Gryshko National Botanical Garden of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine in Kyiv on February 11, 2026, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  (Photo by Genya SAVILOV / AFP)
A man walks past snow-covered plants at the Gryshko National Botanical Garden of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine in Kyiv on February 11, 2026, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Photo by Genya SAVILOV / AFP)
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Ukrainians, Scattered across Europe, Trapped in Limbo by War

A man walks past snow-covered plants at the Gryshko National Botanical Garden of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine in Kyiv on February 11, 2026, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  (Photo by Genya SAVILOV / AFP)
A man walks past snow-covered plants at the Gryshko National Botanical Garden of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine in Kyiv on February 11, 2026, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Photo by Genya SAVILOV / AFP)

Maryna Bondarenko says she has three suitcases packed in her apartment in Poland, waiting for the day when peace returns to Ukraine.

The 51-year-old journalist fled Kyiv with her son and mother after Russia launched its invasion on February 24, 2022. She thought they would be abroad for a month or two until the war ended, reported Reuters.

Four years later, she is still there, working in a Ukrainian-language newsroom that caters to a community of more than 1.5 million Ukrainians living in Poland.

"There were so many moments when we thought: 'This is it, we're finally going back.' We went to the post office several times, packed our belongings into boxes, absolutely certain that we were going back," she said.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has triggered the largest refugee crisis in Europe since World War Two. More than 5 million Ukrainians are scattered across Europe, according to UN figures, many of them in Central and Eastern Europe.

SEPARATED FROM ‌HUSBAND

Roughly three-quarters of ‌the refugees are women and children, after Ukraine imposed martial law prohibiting men of military ‌age from ⁠leaving the ⁠country.

Bondarenko longs to be reunited with her husband, Andrij Dudko, a 44-year-old former TV cameraman who is serving as a drone operator on the front line. But waves of Russian air strikes - which have cut power to tens of thousands of people in Kyiv during a bitter winter - convinced her to stay.

"We get ready to leave, and then there's another massive attack. We get ready again, and then cold winter comes and there is no heating, no power, no water. And I just can't bring my child there, under the rockets."

In Poland, large Ukrainian communities have sprung up in cities such as Warsaw and Krakow, sometimes prompting tensions with local residents ⁠who complain of the new arrivals taking welfare benefits and jobs.

"I want to go home, ‌I really do. I know it won’t be easy," said Bondarenko, adding ‌that the country she returns to will be profoundly changed.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s government hopes that 70% of Ukrainians abroad will return, once ‌the war ends. But surveys have shown that, over time, the share of Ukrainians who say they want to go back ‌is declining.

For many among the younger generation of Ukrainians abroad - like Bondarenko's 11-year-old son Danylo - the country is a distant memory.

He likes Poland, despite experiencing some hostility toward Ukrainians in school.

"I don't really remember anyone from Ukraine. I remember I had one friend, but I do not really remember him and I’ve lost contact with him," he said. "I don't think that I will return to Ukraine."

'LIFE TURNED OUT DIFFERENTLY'

Iryna Kushnir ‌and Olga Yermolenko, who were friends at high school in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, rekindled their friendship after they both fled to Istanbul at the start of ⁠the war, part of a ⁠far smaller number of Ukrainians who sought shelter in Türkiye.

"I thought the war would end quickly, so I didn't plan to stay in Istanbul for long," said Kushnir, 42, who left her 19-year-old daughter Sofia behind in Ukraine to study.

But four years later, she is married to a Turkish man and has a teaching job at the Ukrainian department of Istanbul University.

"Like all Ukrainians, I planned to return home, but life turned out differently," said Kushnir, who says she is proud that her daughter has chosen to remain in Ukraine.

Her friend, Yermolenko, 43, works remotely from Istanbul as a financial specialist for Ukrainian clients. Her mother Tetyana, 73, still lives in Kharkiv and they are constantly in touch.

"I cannot say I am involved 100% in Turkish life. It is a bit strange feeling to be caught between your previous life and a possible future life," said Yermolenko, who has started learning Turkish. She still closely follows events in Ukraine but tries not to think about how long the war will last.

"I open the news - there's a Telegram channel that reports what's happening in Kharkiv in real time - and I see a missile flying toward my home," she said. "In that moment, the feeling is terrifying. I’m very scared. And of course, I immediately call my mom to make sure she's okay."


Trump Pushes US Toward War with Iran as Advisers Urge Focus on Economy

FILE PHOTO: US President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House, following the Supreme Court's ruling that Trump had exceeded his authority when he imposed tariffs, in Washington, D.C., US, February 20, 2026. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz REFILE
FILE PHOTO: US President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House, following the Supreme Court's ruling that Trump had exceeded his authority when he imposed tariffs, in Washington, D.C., US, February 20, 2026. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz REFILE
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Trump Pushes US Toward War with Iran as Advisers Urge Focus on Economy

FILE PHOTO: US President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House, following the Supreme Court's ruling that Trump had exceeded his authority when he imposed tariffs, in Washington, D.C., US, February 20, 2026. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz REFILE
FILE PHOTO: US President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House, following the Supreme Court's ruling that Trump had exceeded his authority when he imposed tariffs, in Washington, D.C., US, February 20, 2026. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz REFILE

President Donald Trump has pushed the United States to the brink of war with Iran even as aides urge him to focus more on voters' economic worries, highlighting the political risks of military escalation ahead of this year's midterm elections.

Trump has ordered a huge buildup of forces in the Middle East and preparations for a potential multi-week air attack on Iran. But he has not laid out in detail to the American public why he might be leading the US into its most aggressive action against Iran since its 1979 revolution.

Trump's fixation on Iran has emerged as the starkest example yet of how foreign policy, including his expanded use of raw military force, has topped his agenda in the first 13 months of his second term, often overshadowing domestic issues like the cost of living that public opinion polls show are much higher priorities for most Americans.

A senior White House official said that despite Trump's bellicose rhetoric there was still no "unified support" within the administration to go ahead with an attack on Iran.

Trump's aides are also mindful of the need to avoid sending a "distracted message" to undecided voters more concerned about the economy, the official told Reuters on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the press.

White House advisers and Republican campaign officials want Trump focused on the economy, a point ‌that was stressed ‌as the top campaign issue at a private briefing this week with numerous cabinet secretaries, according to a person who ‌attended. Trump was ⁠not present.

A second ⁠White House official, responding to Reuters questions for this story, said Trump's foreign policy agenda "has directly translated into wins for the American people."

"All of the President's actions put America First – be it through making the entire world safer or bringing economic deliverables home to our country," the official said.

November's election will decide whether Trump's Republican Party continues to control both chambers of the US Congress. Loss of one or both chambers to opposition Democrats would pose a challenge to Trump in the final years of his presidency.

Rob Godfrey, a Republican strategist, said a prolonged conflict with Iran would pose significant political peril for Trump and his fellow Republicans.

"The president has to keep in mind the political base that propelled him to the Republican nomination - three consecutive times - and that continues to stick by him is skeptical of foreign engagement and foreign entanglements because ending the era of 'forever wars' was an explicit campaign promise," Godfrey said.

Republicans plan ⁠to campaign on individual tax cuts enacted by Congress last year, as well as programs to lower housing and some ‌prescription drug costs.

TOUGHER FOE THAN VENEZUELA

Despite some dissenting voices, many in Trump's isolationist-minded "Make America Great Again" movement supported the ‌lightning raid that deposed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro last month. But he could face more pushback if he steers the US into war with Iran, which would be a much more formidable ‌foe.

Trump, who has repeatedly threatened to strike Iran if it does not reach an agreement on its nuclear program, reiterated his warning on Friday, saying Tehran "better negotiate a ‌fair deal."

The US targeted nuclear sites in Iran in June, and Iran has threatened to retaliate fiercely if attacked again.

Trump won reelection in 2024 on his 'America First' platform in large part because of his promise to reduce inflation and avoid costly foreign conflicts, but he has been struggling to convince Americans that he is making inroads in bringing down high prices, public opinion polls show.

Still, Republican strategist Lauren Cooley said Trump's supporters could support military action against Iran if it is decisive and limited.

"The White House will need to clearly connect any action to protecting American security and ‌economic stability at home," she said.

Even so, with polls showing little public appetite for another foreign war and Trump struggling to stay on message to fully address voters' economic angst, any escalation with Iran is a risky move by a president ⁠who acknowledged in a recent interview with Reuters ⁠that his party could struggle in the midterms.

VARIED WAR REASONS

Foreign policy, historically, has rarely been a decisive issue for midterm voters. But, having deployed a large force of aircraft carriers, other warships and warplanes to the Middle East, Trump may have boxed himself in to carrying out military action unless Iran makes major concessions that it has so far shown little willingness to accept. Otherwise he may risk looking weak internationally.

The reasons Trump has given for a possible attack have been vague and varied. He initially threatened strikes in January in reaction to the Iranian government's bloody crackdown on nationwide street protests but then backed down.

He has more recently pinned his military threats to demands that Iran end its nuclear program and has floated the idea of "regime change," but he and his aides have not said how air strikes could make that happen.

The second White House official insisted that Trump "has been clear that he always prefers diplomacy, and that Iran should make a deal before it is too late." The president, the official added, has also stressed that Iran "cannot have a nuclear weapon or the capacity to build one, and that they cannot enrich uranium."

What many see as a lack of clarity stands in stark contrast to the extensive public case made by then-President George W. Bush for the 2003 invasion of Iraq, which he said was meant to rid the country of weapons of mass destruction. Though that mission ended up being based on bad intelligence and false claims, Bush's stated war aims were clear at the outset.

Godfrey, the Republican strategist, said independent voters - crucial in deciding the outcomes of close elections - will be scrutinizing how Trump handles Iran.

"Midterm voters and his base will be waiting for the president to make his case," he said.


Iran’s Khamenei Faces Gravest Crisis of His Rule as US Strike Force Gathers

A handout picture made available by Iran's Supreme Leader Office shows Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addressing a ceremony in Tehran, Iran, 17 February 2026, amid heightened regional tensions following an increased US military presence in the Middle East. (EPA/Iran’s Supreme Leader Office Handout)
A handout picture made available by Iran's Supreme Leader Office shows Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addressing a ceremony in Tehran, Iran, 17 February 2026, amid heightened regional tensions following an increased US military presence in the Middle East. (EPA/Iran’s Supreme Leader Office Handout)
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Iran’s Khamenei Faces Gravest Crisis of His Rule as US Strike Force Gathers

A handout picture made available by Iran's Supreme Leader Office shows Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addressing a ceremony in Tehran, Iran, 17 February 2026, amid heightened regional tensions following an increased US military presence in the Middle East. (EPA/Iran’s Supreme Leader Office Handout)
A handout picture made available by Iran's Supreme Leader Office shows Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addressing a ceremony in Tehran, Iran, 17 February 2026, amid heightened regional tensions following an increased US military presence in the Middle East. (EPA/Iran’s Supreme Leader Office Handout)

Ali Khamenei has crushed unrest and survived foreign pressure before but, with his envoys racing to avert threatened American airstrikes through ongoing talks, Iran's Supreme Leader faces the gravest crisis of his 36-year rule.

An embittered population toils under a sanctions-hit economy. Huge protests in January were crushed at a cost of thousands of lives. Israeli and US. strikes last year smashed prized nuclear and missile facilities. Iran's regional policy lies in tatters, with old allies and proxies weakened or gone.

With the risk of war hanging over the Middle East, the 86-year-old's fierce devotion to the Islamic Republic, his implacable hostility to the West and his record of guile in spinning out negotiations will shape the fate of the region.

PRESERVING IRAN'S ISLAMIC REPUBLIC AT ALL COSTS

Already this year, he has ordered the deadliest crackdown since the 1979 revolution, saying protesters "should be put in their place" before security forces opened fire on demonstrators chanting "Death to the dictator!".

US President Donald Trump's threats to bomb Iran again come only months after Khamenei was forced into hiding last June by strikes that killed several close associates and Revolutionary Guard commanders.

That assault was among the many indirect results of the attack on Israel by the Iran-backed Palestinian group Hamas on October 7, 2023, which not only triggered the war in Gaza but also spurred Israel to hammer Tehran's other ‌regional proxies.

With Hezbollah weakened ‌in Lebanon and Syria's Bashar al-Assad toppled, Khamenei's reach across the Middle East has been stunted. Now he faces ‌US demands ⁠to abandon Iran's ⁠best remaining strategic lever, its arsenal of ballistic missiles.

Iran has even offered apparent concessions on its nuclear program, which it says is purely civilian but is seen by the West and Israel as a path to an atomic bomb.

But Khamenei refuses to even discuss giving up missiles, which Iran sees as its only remaining deterrent to Israeli attack, a display of intransigence that may itself invite US airstrikes.

As the US military buildup intensifies, Khamenei's calculations will draw on a character molded by revolution, years of turmoil and war with Iraq, decades of sparring with the United States, and a ruthless accumulation of power.

Khamenei has ruled since 1989 and holds ultimate authority over all branches of government, the military and the judiciary.

While elected officials manage day-to-day affairs, no major policy - especially one concerning the United States - proceeds without his explicit approval; Khamenei's mastery of Iran's complex system of clerical rule combined with limited democracy ensures that no ⁠other group can challenge his decisions.

AS LEADER, KHAMENEI WAS ONCE FAR FROM SUPREME

Early in his rule, Khamenei was ‌often dismissed as weak and an unlikely successor to the Islamic Republic's late founder, the charismatic Khomeini.

When he was appointed Supreme Leader, Khamenei had difficulty wielding power through religious authority, as the theocratic system foresaw. After struggling for a long time to ‌emerge from the shadow of his mentor, it was by forging a formidable security apparatus devoted solely to him that he finally imposed himself.

Khamenei distrusts the West, ‌particularly the US, which he accuses of seeking to topple him.

In a typically pugnacious speech after January's protests, he blamed Trump for the unrest, saying: "We consider the US president criminal for the casualties, damages and slander he inflicted on the Iranian nation." Yet despite his ideological rigidity, he has shown a willingness to bend when the survival of the republic is at stake.

The concept of "heroic flexibility", first mentioned by Khamenei in 2013, permits tactical compromises to advance his goals, mirroring Khomeini's choice in 1988 to embrace a ceasefire after eight years of war with Iraq.

Khamenei’s guarded ‌endorsement of Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with six world powers was another such moment, as he calculated that sanctions relief was necessary to stabilize the economy and buttress his grip on power.

Trump quit the 2015 pact during his first ⁠term in 2018 and reimposed crippling sanctions on ⁠Iran. Tehran reacted by gradually violating all agreed curbs on its nuclear program.

LOYAL SECURITY STRUCTURE KEY TO KHAMENEI'S POWER

At times of increasing pressure, Khamenei has repeatedly turned to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Basij, a paramilitary force numbering hundreds of thousands of volunteers, to snuff out dissent.

It was they who crushed the protests that exploded after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's re-election as president in 2009 amid allegations of vote fraud.

In 2022, Khamenei was just as ruthless in arresting, imprisoning or executing protesters enraged by the death in custody of the young Iranian-Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini.

And it was again the Guards and Basij who crushed the latest round of protests in January.

His power also owes much to the parastatal financial empire known as Setad, which is under Khamenei's direct control. Worth tens of billions of dollars, it has grown hugely during his rule, investing billions in the Revolutionary Guards.

Scholars outside Iran paint a picture of a secretive ideologue fearful of betrayal - an anxiety fueled by an assassination attempt in June 1981 with a bomb hidden in a tape recorder that paralyzed his right arm.

Khamenei himself suffered severe torture, according to his official biography, in 1963, when at 24 he served the first of many terms in prison for political activities under the rule of the shah.

After the revolution, as deputy defense minister, Khamenei became close to the Guards during the 1980-88 war with Iraq, which claimed a million lives from both sides.

He won the presidency with Khomeini's support but was a surprise choice as successor when the supreme leader died, lacking both his popular appeal and his superior clerical credentials.

Karim Sadjadpour at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said that "accident of history" had transformed a "weak president to an initially weak supreme leader to one of the five most powerful Iranians of the last 100 years".