Is China Playing a Role in Rebuilding Egyptian-Iranian Relations?

 Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry during his reception of the Iranian delegation participating in the COP 27 summit in Sharm El-Sheikh last November (Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry during his reception of the Iranian delegation participating in the COP 27 summit in Sharm El-Sheikh last November (Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
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Is China Playing a Role in Rebuilding Egyptian-Iranian Relations?

 Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry during his reception of the Iranian delegation participating in the COP 27 summit in Sharm El-Sheikh last November (Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry during his reception of the Iranian delegation participating in the COP 27 summit in Sharm El-Sheikh last November (Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs)

A recent research paper released by the Jeddah-based Gulf Research Center has outlined two scenarios for the future of Egyptian-Iranian relations: the reestablishment and strengthening of diplomatic ties, or the continuation of the current state of estrangement while maintaining a policy of de-escalation.

Youssef Khattab, the author of the research paper, explained that the severed ties between the two nations do not stem from a deep-rooted historical strategic conflict, fundamental clashes of interests, geopolitical rivalry, or other factors that perpetuate perpetual tension and animosity between countries.

According to Khattab, this fact makes it relatively easier for both nations to restore their relations if the will and sincerity exist.

In his report, Khattab points out two potential scenarios for the future relations between Egypt and Iran.

The first scenario involves the reestablishment and consolidation of diplomatic ties. This scenario holds significant potential to serve the interests of both nations and their people, especially considering the economic hardships they currently face.

To alleviate inflation, unemployment, and other pressures, both countries would need to expand their cooperation in trade, finance, and investment.

According to the report, there are factors that support the scenario of diplomatic reconciliation between Egypt and Iran. The global economic crises caused by the coronavirus pandemic have affected all nations, especially developing or third-world countries, which lacked the capabilities to effectively cope with the crisis and swiftly recover from its aftermath.

This has led both countries to seek closer cooperation, shun discord, and mend their relations.

Additionally, the Russian invasion of Ukraine compelled many nations to pursue conflict de-escalation, problem-solving, and prioritizing national interests.

The researcher highlighted the resolution of the tense Iran-Gulf relations, with successful normalization and resumption of ties with Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.

Khattab also mentioned the possibility of China mediating a historic agreement similar to the Saudi-Iranian accord, which could help bridge the gap between Cairo and Tehran.

This possibility arises from China's strategic interest in competing with the US for influence in the region.

Khattab further elaborated that achieving this scenario would require Egypt’s responsiveness to Iran’s acceptance of Omani mediation to restore relations.

Egypt should engage with the supportive statements from Iranian officials regarding reconciliation and overcome hesitation by embracing dialogue and negotiation.

Khattab emphasized that Iran must back its statements and welcoming gestures towards restoring relations with tangible steps that build trust and seriousness in Egypt’s ongoing efforts for reconciliation.

Historically, Iran has been the one to step back from re-establishing relations in previous attempts.



Facing Calls to Disarm, Hezbollah Ready to Discuss Weapons if Israel Withdraws, Senior Official Says 

Mourners attend the funeral of Hezbollah fighters, killed before the November 27 ceasefire with Israel, in southern Lebanese village of al-Taybeh, near the border with Israel on April 6, 2025. (AFP)
Mourners attend the funeral of Hezbollah fighters, killed before the November 27 ceasefire with Israel, in southern Lebanese village of al-Taybeh, near the border with Israel on April 6, 2025. (AFP)
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Facing Calls to Disarm, Hezbollah Ready to Discuss Weapons if Israel Withdraws, Senior Official Says 

Mourners attend the funeral of Hezbollah fighters, killed before the November 27 ceasefire with Israel, in southern Lebanese village of al-Taybeh, near the border with Israel on April 6, 2025. (AFP)
Mourners attend the funeral of Hezbollah fighters, killed before the November 27 ceasefire with Israel, in southern Lebanese village of al-Taybeh, near the border with Israel on April 6, 2025. (AFP)

As calls for Lebanon's Hezbollah to disarm gain momentum, a senior Hezbollah official told Reuters the group is ready to hold talks with the Lebanese president about its weapons if Israel withdraws from south Lebanon and stops its strikes, Reuters reported on Wednesday.

The prospect of talks aimed at securing Hezbollah's disarmament - unimaginable when it was at the zenith of its power just two years ago - underlines dramatic shifts in the Middle East power balance since Israel pummeled the Iran-backed group in a devastating conflict triggered by the Gaza war.

President Joseph Aoun, who vowed when he took office in January to establish a state monopoly on the control of arms, intends to open talks with Hezbollah over its arsenal soon, three Lebanese political sources said according to Reuters.

Hezbollah emerged severely weakened from the 2024 conflict with Israel when its top leaders and thousands of its fighters were killed and much of its rocket arsenal destroyed. The blow was compounded when its ally Bashar al-Assad was toppled from power in Syria, cutting its supply lines from Iran.

The senior Hezbollah official said the group was ready to discuss its arms in the context of a national defense strategy, but this hinged on Israel pulling out its troops from five hilltops in south Lebanon.

"Hezbollah is ready to discuss the matter of its arms if Israel withdraws from the five points, and halts its aggression against Lebanese," the senior official told Reuters.

Hezbollah's position on potential discussions about its arms has not been previously reported. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity due to political sensitivities.

Hezbollah's media office did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The presidency declined to comment.

Israel, which sent ground troops into south Lebanon during the war, has largely withdrawn but decided in February not to leave the five hilltop positions. It said it intended eventually to hand them over to Lebanese troops once it was sure the security situation allowed.

RENEWED FOCUS ON HEZBOLLAH'S ARMS

Despite a ceasefire since November, Israeli airstrikes have kept pressure on the party while Washington has demanded Hezbollah disarm and is preparing for nuclear talks with Hezbollah's Iranian backers.

Hezbollah has been the most powerful of the paramilitary groups Iran has backed across the region.

Reuters reported on Monday that several Iranian-backed militia groups in Iraq are prepared to disarm for the first time to avert the threat of an escalating conflict with the Trump administration in the US.

Hezbollah has for years rejected calls from its critics in Lebanon to disarm, describing its weapons as vital to defending the country from Israel. Deep differences over its arsenal spilled into a short civil war in 2008.

The party's critics say it has unilaterally dragged Lebanon into conflicts and the presence of its large arsenal outside of government control has undermined the state.

A US-brokered ceasefire with Israel requires the Lebanese army to dismantle all unauthorized military facilities and confiscate all arms, starting in areas south of the Litani River, which flows into the Mediterranean some 20 km (12 miles) north of the Israeli border.

Two sources familiar with Hezbollah's thinking said it is weighing handing to the army its most potent weapons north of the Litani, including drones and anti-tank missiles.

CALL FOR A DISARMAMENT TIMETABLE

Aoun has said Hezbollah's weaponry must be addressed through dialogue because any attempts to disarm the group by force would prompt conflict, the sources said.

Patriarch Beshara Al-Rai, the head of Lebanon's Maronite church, said last week it was time for all weapons to be in state hands, but this would need time and diplomacy because "Lebanon cannot bear a new war".

Communication channels with relevant stakeholders are being opened to "begin studying the transfer of weapons" to state control, after the army and security services had extended state authority across Lebanon, a Lebanese official said, saying this was a move to implement Aoun's policy.

The issue was also being discussed with parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, an important Hezbollah ally, who plays a key role in narrowing differences, she said.

US envoy Morgan Ortagus, who visited Beirut at the weekend, repeated Washington's position that Hezbollah and other armed groups should be disarmed as soon as possible and the Lebanese army was expected to do the job.

"It's clear that Hezbollah has to be disarmed and it's clear that Israel is not going to accept terrorists shooting at them, into their country, and that's a position we understand," Ortagus said in an April 6 interview with Lebanon's LBCI television.

Several Lebanese government ministers want a disarmament timetable, said Kamal Shehadi, a minister affiliated with the anti-Hezbollah Lebanese Forces party. Shehadi told Reuters disarmament should take no more than six months, citing post-civil war militia disarmament as a precedent.

A timetable -- which presumably would impose deadlines on the process -- is, he said, the "only way to protect our fellow citizens from the recurring attacks that are costing lives, costing the economy and causing destruction".

He said he and other ministers hoped the full cabinet would endorse the idea and task the minister of defense with preparing the timetable. "We're going to keep asking for it," he said.

The most recent conflict began when Hezbollah opened fire in support of Hamas at the start of the Gaza war in October 2023.

Hezbollah leader Sheikh Naim Qassem in a March 29 speech said his group no longer has an armed presence south of the Litani, and had stuck to the ceasefire deal while Israel breached it "every day". Israel has accused Hezbollah of maintaining military infrastructure in the south.

Hezbollah has put the onus on the Lebanese state to get Israel to withdraw and stop its attacks. Qassem said there was still time for diplomatic solutions. But he warned that the "resistance is present and ready" and indicated it could resort "to other options" if Israel doesn't adhere to the deal.