Saudi Initiative to Prevent an Israeli Invasion Collided with Soviet Rejection

Arafat on the front lines of fighting in Beirut (Getty)
Arafat on the front lines of fighting in Beirut (Getty)
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Saudi Initiative to Prevent an Israeli Invasion Collided with Soviet Rejection

Arafat on the front lines of fighting in Beirut (Getty)
Arafat on the front lines of fighting in Beirut (Getty)

As part of the reports published by Asharq Al-Awsat on the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in the summer of 1982, Hani Al-Hassan, a member of the Central Committee of the Fatah movement, narrates that the Palestinians had gathered information a year before about Israel’s preparation for a wide-scale aggression against the country, with the aim of eliminating the military resistance.

Al-Hassan said that the PLO leadership contacted Saudi Arabia, which responded quickly, by launching an initiative sponsored by then Saudi Crown Prince Fahd bin Abdulaziz.

“The goal of the initiative was to contain a potential war in Lebanon and prevent it from occurring,” he remarked. But the Saudi endeavor collided with the Soviet Union’s rejection.

In the first months of 1982, information began to reach the office of the Director of Intelligence in the Lebanese Army, Colonel Johnny Abdo, about Israeli preparations to carry out a large-scale invasion that might reach Beirut.

Abdo recounted: “We obtained this information from Lebanese sources. I believe that the Western countries themselves were getting their information from Lebanon... It was about a large-scale invasion with an Israeli desire to avoid a clash with the Syrian forces deployed in Lebanon. We did not see how such a broad aggression could be launched without clashing with the Syrian forces. We had questions about the importance of an adventure of this kind, especially in light of Syrian-Soviet relations and the treaty signed between the two countries.”

At that time, statements were issued by pro-Syria Lebanese figures. They put this information within the framework of intimidation attempts that aim to exert pressure on the resistance to push it to facilitate the deployment of the Lebanese army in the South, Abdo said.

He added that the solution to avoid the invasion lied in the withdrawal of the Palestinians from the South and the redeployment of the army there.

“We tried this several times, but Abu Ammar was not willing to abandon South Lebanon. The PLO refused to discuss the issue in detail,” he underlined.

“The Israeli ambassador to London, Shlomo Argov, was shot, and the Israeli raids on Lebanon began, followed by the invasion on June 6. Many thought that the process was limited, but the information available to us indicated otherwise,” the Lebanese official recounted.

Abdo expressed his regret that the Lebanese authority was unable to persuade the PLO to agree on what could have helped to avoid the invasion. He also noted that the Syrian side did not take seriously the information conveyed by Lebanon.

“Yasser Arafat’s state”... and the long journey of torment

Another man was disappointed with the fact that Lebanon had not succeeded in avoiding the catastrophe of the invasion, despite the efforts that had been made. His name is Fouad Boutros, the Foreign Minister of that era.

After turning off the tape recorder, he said: “I want you, as a journalist, to know the story briefly. [Yasser Arafat’s state] was stronger on Lebanese soil than the Lebanese state. It was stronger in the Arab and Islamic worlds. This is in addition to the Soviet Union and the countries within its orbit. We saw some foreign ministers and ambassadors expressing an understanding of Lebanon’s right to deploy its army in the South to avoid Israeli attacks, but this perception was neither declared publicly, nor translated into the policies of these countries. The Palestinian issue enjoyed sanctity that prevented even raising the transgressions of the Palestinian organization that exposed Lebanon to dangers.”

He added: “The PLO considered its military presence in southern Lebanon as its last card to remind of its existence, its demands, and its cause. Arafat was not ready to give up this card. The Arab countries, for their part, were not willing to put pressure on the organization. The media in the region was insensitive to any Lebanese call to impose the sovereignty of the Lebanese state alone on its lands. In addition to all of this, the Lebanese division over the Palestinian military presence was deep and violent, and the mere attempt to control it was labeled as treason.”

Another man was alarmed by Abdo’s information and tried to convince himself not to believe it. He is then-Prime Minister Shafiq Al-Wazzan. Never before in the history of the conflict has Israel occupied an Arab capital.

He recounted: “After the invasion, we summoned the ambassadors of the major powers... It ultimately became clear that we had no choice but to bet on the United States to curb the aggression, or to push Israel to withdraw, even if it was supportive of the invasion or its goals... We wished there was an Arab force capable of intervening and turning the course of events, but the reality was otherwise. Thus, we came under the fire of Israeli aggression... and the long journey of torment began.”

Al-Wazzan added: “I called King Fahd bin Abdulaziz and informed him that Beirut was living without water, bread, or medicine. He was very saddened and told me that he would call me back. Five hours later, King Fahd informed me that he had spoken to President Ronald Reagan asking for his intervention, and that the American president had called Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin, who promised him the return of the water. In those harsh conditions, we considered the restoration of water an achievement. I would like to stress here that Saudi Arabia has not spared Lebanon any possible assistance.”

The Silent Action Party

I was unable to obtain President Élias Sarkis's testimony about those days. The reasons are many. He was from the party of silent action, not from the party of speech. He was confident, based on his integrity and responsible behavior, that history would do him justice if it was written fairly.

Sarkis saw Beirut burning, besieged, and invaded. He saw the occupation soldiers even approaching the presidential palace. He was the voice of the state and the state was weak. He was the voice of the nation, and the nation was divided. His friends say that he was counting the days waiting for his departure, refusing any proposal to extend his term.

Israeli Tanks while advancing towards Beirut in 1982 (Getty)

Did the Palestinian side try to avoid the Israeli invasion, and who bears responsibility for thwarting that attempt? I found the answer with Hani Al-Hassan. He was a member of the Central Committee of the Fatah movement and in charge of its political security. He was also in the narrow circle of decision-makers around President Yasser Arafat.

Al-Hassan said that information was gathered in 1981 indicating that Israel was preparing a large-scale aggression against Lebanon with the aim of striking the military presence of the resistance.

He added that the Reagan’s administration facilitated an operation of this kind. The Arab situation was very difficult. Egypt was in semi-Arab isolation, and Iraq was immersed in its war with Iran. The organization’s leadership went to Saudi Arabia and informed its officials, who took a quick action.

Al-Hassan asserted that the goal of the Saudi initiative was to contain the next war in Lebanon and prevent it from occurring.” But the initiative faltered because the Soviet Union issued orders to block it.

He stressed that anyone who wanted to narrate the Palestinian revolution between 1972 and 1982 must always keep the Soviet position in mind, because the Palestinian revolution lived during that period a stage of indecision, where in the end, despite all the differences and the multiplicity of viewpoints, only the Soviet decision prevailed.

Al-Hassan recounted: “The siege took place and Abu Ammar told me that we had to fight for six months... The important thing is that we made a secret decision to fight for six months, and Abu Ammar asked me to assume the political work. That is, he asked me to move forward with political action, but without returning with an agreement. This means that we negotiate for the mere purpose of negotiation, then we see the balance of fighting, the international situation, and the weight of Syrian intervention.”



Borderless Europe Fights Brain Drain as Talent Heads North

Eszter Czovek, 45, packs up her house as she moves to Austria, in Budapest, Hungary, October 28, 2024. REUTERS/Bernadett Szabo
Eszter Czovek, 45, packs up her house as she moves to Austria, in Budapest, Hungary, October 28, 2024. REUTERS/Bernadett Szabo
TT

Borderless Europe Fights Brain Drain as Talent Heads North

Eszter Czovek, 45, packs up her house as she moves to Austria, in Budapest, Hungary, October 28, 2024. REUTERS/Bernadett Szabo
Eszter Czovek, 45, packs up her house as she moves to Austria, in Budapest, Hungary, October 28, 2024. REUTERS/Bernadett Szabo

Until recently aerospace engineer Pedro Monteiro figured he'd join many of his peers moving from Portugal to its richer European neighbors in the quest for a better-paid job once he completes his master's degree in Lisbon.
But tax breaks proposed by Portugal's government for young workers - up to a temporary 100% income tax exemption in some cases - plus help with housing are making him think twice.
"Previous governments left young people behind," said Monteiro, 23, who is studying engineering and industrial management at the Higher Technical Institute in the Portuguese capital. "The country needs us and we want to stay but we need to see signs from the government that they are implementing policies that will help."
Monteiro cites in particular the cost of buying or renting a home amid a housing crisis aggravated by the arrival of wealthy foreigners lured by easy residency rights and tax breaks, Reuters said.
He is doubtful the government's new measures will be enough.
"Some of my friends are now working abroad and earn substantially more money... and have better career development opportunities," he said. "I'm a little bit skeptical concerning my job opportunities here in Portugal."
Portugal is the latest country in Europe to seek to tackle a brain drain holding back its economy. Tax breaks for young workers in the budget currently going through parliament will take effect next year and could benefit as many as 400,000 young people at an annual cost of 525 million euros.
Talent flight to wealthier countries of the north is a problem Portugal shares with several others in southern and central Europe, as workers take advantage of freedom of movement rules within the trade bloc. Countries including Italy have tried other schemes to counter the flight, with mixed results.
By exacerbating regional labor shortages and depriving poorer countries of tax revenues, it is yet another hurdle for the EU as it tries to improve its ebbing economic growth while addressing population decline and lagging labor productivity.
Donald Trump's victory in US elections this month raises the stakes, with the risk of across-the-board trade tariffs on European exports of at least 10% - a move that economists say could turn Europe's anaemic growth into outright recession.
About 2.3 million people born in Portugal, or 23% of its population, currently live abroad, according to Portugal's Emigration Observatory. That includes 850,000 Portuguese nationals aged 15-39, or about 30% of young Portuguese and 12.6% of its working-age population.
More concerning still is that about 40% of 50,000 people who graduate from universities or technical colleges emigrate each year, according to a study by Business Roundtable Portugal and Deloitte based on official statistics, costing Portugal billions of euros in lost income tax revenue and social security contributions.
DEMOGRAPHIC HELL
"This is not a country for young people," said Pedro Ginjeira do Nascimento, executive director of Business Roundtable Portugal, which represents 43 of the largest companies in the nation of 10 million people. "Portugal is experiencing a true demographic hell because the country is unable to create conditions to retain and attract young talent."
Internal migration within the EU is partly driven by the disparity in wages between its member states. Some economic migrants also say they are looking for better benefits such as pensions and healthcare and less rigid, hierarchichal structures that give more responsibility to those in junior roles.
Concerns are mounting over the long-term viability of Europe's economic model with its rapidly ageing population and failure to win substantial shares of high-growth markets of the future, from tech to renewable energy.
Presenting a raft of reform proposals aimed at boosting local innovation and investment, former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi said in September the region faced a "slow agony" of decline if it did not compete more effectively.
Eszter Czovek, 45, and her husband are moving from Hungary to Austria, where workers earn an average 40.9 euros ($29.95) per hour compared to 12.8 euros per hour in Hungary, the largest wage gap between neighboring countries in the EU.
The number of Hungarians living in Austria increased to 107,264 by the beginning of 2024 from just 14,151 when Hungary joined the EU.
Czovek's husband, who works in construction, was offered a job in Austria, while she has worked in media and accounting at various multinationals. She cited better pay, pensions, work conditions and healthcare as motives for moving. She also mentioned her concern over the political situation in Hungary, which she fears might join Britain in leaving the EU.
"There was a change of regime here in 1989 and 30 years later we are still waiting for the miracle that will see us catch up with Austria," Czovek said of the revolution over three decades ago that ended communist rule in Hungary.
Since Brexit, the Netherlands has replaced Britain as a preferred destination for Portuguese talent while Germany and Scandinavian countries are also popular.
Many Europeans still head to the United States in search of better jobs - about 4.7 million were living there in 2022, according to the Washington-based Migration Policy Institute, which nonetheless notes a long-term decline since the 1960s.
In 2023, 4,892 Portuguese emigrated to the Netherlands, surpassing Britain for the first time, which in 2019 received 24,500 Portuguese.
At home, they face the eighth-highest tax burden in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) even as house prices rose 186% and rents by 94% since 2015, according to property specialists Confidencial Imobiliario.
A single person in Portugal without children earned an average of 16,943 euros after tax in 2023 compared to 45,429 euros in the Netherlands, according to Eurostat.
Portugal will offer under 35s earning up to 28,000 euros a year a 100% tax exemption during their first year of work, gradually reducing the benefit to a 25% deduction between the eighth and tenth years.
Young people would also be exempted from transaction taxes and stamp duty when buying their first home as well as access to loans guaranteed by the state and rent subsidies.
"We are designing a solid package that tries to solve the main reasons why the young leave," Cabinet Minister Antonio Leitao Amaro said in an interview with Reuters.
'THINGS WON'T CHANGE'
Leitao Amaro said he did not know for sure if the tax breaks would work but that his government, which came into office in April, had to try something new.
"If we don't act ambitiously, things won't change and Portugal will continue down this path," he said.
The Italian government has already found that tax breaks used as incentives are costly and open to fraud.
In January, Italy abruptly curtailed its own scheme that was costing 1.3 billion euros in lost tax revenue, even as it lured tech workers such as Alessandra Mariani back home.
Before 2024, returners were offered a 70% tax break for five years, extendable for another five years in certain circumstances. Now, it plans to offer a slimmed-down scheme targeting specific skills after it attracted only 1,200 teachers or researchers - areas where Italy has a particular shortage.
Mariani said the incentives were key to persuading her to return to Milan in 2021 by allowing her to maintain the same standard of living she enjoyed in London.
"Had the opportunity been the same without the scheme, I would not have done it at all," said Mariani, now working at the Italian arm of the same large tech company.
With her tax breaks poised to be phased out by 2026 unless she buys a house or has a child, Mariani faces a drop in salary and she said she's once again eyeing the exit door.