Israelis, Lebanese Pack Bags for Indefinite Exile amid Fears of Border War

Shells from Israeli artillery explode over Dhayra village, near the Lebanese-Israeli border, Lebanon, 16 October 2023. (EPA)
Shells from Israeli artillery explode over Dhayra village, near the Lebanese-Israeli border, Lebanon, 16 October 2023. (EPA)
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Israelis, Lebanese Pack Bags for Indefinite Exile amid Fears of Border War

Shells from Israeli artillery explode over Dhayra village, near the Lebanese-Israeli border, Lebanon, 16 October 2023. (EPA)
Shells from Israeli artillery explode over Dhayra village, near the Lebanese-Israeli border, Lebanon, 16 October 2023. (EPA)

Israeli and Lebanese residents on both sides of escalating border clashes say they have never felt such tension.

Fearing their hometowns could become the main front in a war between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah, they have packed their bags and begun to move out.

"This time it's a whole different kind of anxiety - terrible fear," said Smadar Azoulai, a displaced resident of the Israeli border town of Kiryat Shmona.

"It's not the same as before. We handled that. There were bombs, there were rockets and we took cover in bomb shelters," she said, referring to past flare-ups between Israel and Hezbollah.

Nine miles north of Kiryat Shmona, Lebanese trader Mohammed Mustafa hadn't yet left his hometown of Marjeyoun, but had his suitcase ready.

"Sometimes you wake up and think a big war is going to happen, involving many countries. Other times you think, it's calm and there won't be war. No one really knows what's going to happen," he said.

The border area could become a second front in a wider Middle Eastern war should Israel's expected invasion of Gaza in retaliation for a surprise attack by Hamas militants prompt a strong response from its regional foes.

The attack on Oct. 7 killed more than 1,300 Israelis, the deadliest single day in Israel's 75-year history.

Israel has responded with its fiercest ever bombardment of the blockaded Gaza Strip, killing more than 2,700 Palestinians, and plans a large ground offensive.

‘Tomorrow it could be warplanes’

Israel's narrow northern border with Lebanon, a hilly region by the sea, feels far from the flat, scrubby Gaza Strip, the Palestinian enclave 200 km (130 miles) away on Israel's southwestern edge.

But Iran, which backs Hamas and Hezbollah, said on Tuesday that "preemptive action" could be expected in the coming hours against Israeli assaults on Gaza. Israel has threatened to destroy Lebanon should Hezbollah get involved.

The fear of a major conflagration has scattered communities at the frontier. Israel ordered the evacuation this week of 28 villages near Lebanon, forcing many families to take up residence at tourist resorts further south.

Lebanese residents have meanwhile fled north in the direction of towns and cities they hope won't be targeted by Israeli firepower.

"Today it's just a few shells, tomorrow it could be warplanes, roads being blocked, fuel shortages, hospitals could close. It's normal to see an exodus. The worst thing is that we don't know how long this will last," said Hussein, a Lebanese border resident who gave only his first name.

Already, many Lebanese from the border have moved in with families in Beirut while making contingency plans to head further north or into mountain areas that remained relatively safe during a month-long war in 2006 that killed 1,200 people in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and 157 Israelis, mostly soldiers.

Wide areas of southern Lebanon were destroyed in that war between Hezbollah and Israel, but that conflict began suddenly and without forewarning after the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah. That contrasts with the gradual escalation underway since Oct. 7.

At the Sea of Galilee, hundreds of Israelis from northern kibbutzes said they were living out of suitcases indefinitely.

"The whole kibbutz is here," hospital worker and Kibbutz Bar-Am resident Dani Ayelet Parasol said.

"The mood is one of fear, of uncertainty - when will it end, what will be our place, and what will happen to those whose lives were destroyed?" she said.

Israel's military said it killed four people who had tried to cross the fence bordering Lebanon and plant an explosive device on Tuesday, and heavy shelling and gunfire have continued throughout the day.

The flare up has been the deadliest since the 2006 war, with about a dozen Lebanese and Palestinian fighters killed, as well as three civilians, including Reuters journalist Issam Abdallah.

At least three Israeli soldiers have been killed.

Hezbollah has targeted Israeli military posts, tanks and knocked out surveillance equipment, according to videos shared by the group, while Israel has shelled border towns.



Inside Hezbollah’s Kamikaze Drone That Hit Israel's Binyamina

A photo released by the Israeli army spokesperson of the “Sayyad 107” drone.
A photo released by the Israeli army spokesperson of the “Sayyad 107” drone.
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Inside Hezbollah’s Kamikaze Drone That Hit Israel's Binyamina

A photo released by the Israeli army spokesperson of the “Sayyad 107” drone.
A photo released by the Israeli army spokesperson of the “Sayyad 107” drone.

The Israeli security apparatuses are investigating the type of kamikaze drone that Hezbollah used on Sunday evening to hit a Golani Brigade base near Binyamina south of Haifa, killing four soldiers and wounding about 90 others, including 12 soldiers with serious injuries.

Ron Ben-Yishai, a security expert at the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, said that from the limited details currently available, the drone was likely a Sayyad 107 model, a UAV manufactured in Iran and widely used by Hezbollah, which also produces it in large quantities in Lebanon.

“The model’s flight path can be programmed to frequently change altitude and direction, making it difficult to detect and track,” Ben-Yishai said.

“It has a range of up to 100 kilometers (62 miles) and is small, with a very low radar signature compared to larger, metal-made UAVs. Its detection relies on the heat emitted by the engine, which is also challenging to identify via optical means,” he added.

According to the security expert, the military is examining all possibilities, but it's almost certain that the UAV, which hit a critical target and caused many casualties, wasn't only a specialized model but also Hezbollah managed to overwhelm or disrupt the Israeli army’s detection systems by launching a mixed salvo of rockets and two other drones aimed at the Western Galilee.

Ben-Yishai noted that the UAVs continued toward the sea off the northern coast and the Iron Dome system intercepted one.

The Israeli army dispatched fighter jets and combat helicopters to track the remaining UAV, but contact with it was lost, he said.

The expert said it is possible that the UAV was pre-programmed to sharply descend toward the ground or the sea and continue flying at low altitude, exploiting the coastal terrain and then the hills of the coastal plain to evade interceptors.

“Hezbollah has gained considerable experience in operating UAVs over the past year, successfully causing numerous casualties among civilians and primarily IDF soldiers at remote bases,” Ben-Yishai wrote, adding that over half of the drones launched by Hezbollah are intercepted, either by the Israeli army fighter jets sent to engage them or by the Iron Dome and David's Sling systems.

However, he noted, due to the UAV's small size and very weak radar signature, the Iron Dome's fire control radars and the optical sensors on fighter jets and helicopters often lose track of them, especially in hilly areas where radar echoes from the terrain are dominant and misleading.

Ben-Yishai revealed that the Israeli army and defense industries have been trying to find a solution to this issue at least since the current war began, but there is still no effective detection and interception solution.

He said the sophisticated UAVs manufactured by Iran are equipped with inertial navigation systems in addition to satellite navigation, enabling them to stay on course and strike their targets even when faced with GPS jamming.

“This is intended to mislead them, but Iran and Hezbollah sometimes bypass the American GPS jamming by using unique satellite navigation systems developed by Russia or China,” Ben-Yishai said.