‘Al-Aqsa Flood’ Damages Türkiye's Ties with Hamas

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh meet in Ankara. (Turkish presidency file photo)
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh meet in Ankara. (Turkish presidency file photo)
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‘Al-Aqsa Flood’ Damages Türkiye's Ties with Hamas

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh meet in Ankara. (Turkish presidency file photo)
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh meet in Ankara. (Turkish presidency file photo)

Hamas’ Al-Aqsa Flood operation appears to have damaged the Palestinian movement’s ties with Türkiye.

Reports had emerged that Türkiye had called on Hamas to leave the country in wake of the movement’s October 7 operation against Israel.

In a tweet on Monday, the Turkish presidency’s bulletin to combat disinformation denied the reports. It also attached a report by Al Monitor that spoke of Türkiye's “polite” request to Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and other members of the movement to leave the country.

Haniyeh has split his voluntary exile from the Palestinian territories in Qatar and Türkiye. He was in Türkiye when the October 7 operation took place.

Reports said that representatives of Turkish intelligence soon met with Hamas officials to inform them that Turkish authorities would no longer be able to ensure their security in wake of Israeli threats. Soon after, Hamas officials decided to voluntarily leave Türkiye.

Turkish reporter Murat Yetkin noted that the presidency’s denial was only posted in Arabic, not Turkish, meaning Ankara wanted to deliver a message to the Arab street, while also concealing the issue from the Turkish public.

He added that Hamas seems to have erred when it believed that attacking Israeli civilians would not damage relations with Ankara, which has condemned the killing of civilians on both sides of the conflict.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had expressed his rejection of the killing of any civilians, calling on Israel and Hamas to show restraint.

“We oppose indiscriminate acts against Israeli civilians and the two parties must respect the rules of war,” he urged.

Türkiye’s position angered Hamas and other Palestinian groups, noting that Erdogan’s latest position stands in contrast to his previous ones that were aligned with their cause. They noted that his recent calm stance does not serve the Palestinian cause.

Israel, meanwhile, has opposed Türkiye playing a mediator role to end the crisis with Hamas. Israel’s ambassador to Ankara said Türkiye cannot act as a mediator because it sometimes hosts prominent Hamas member Saleh al-Arouri, who “should be tried for crimes against humanity.”

Turkish sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Ankara “could not justify the killing of civilians by Hamas, while also condemning Israel’s barbaric killing of civilians.” They added that Ankara was angered by the death of Israeli civilians in Hamas’ attack.

Yetkin said, however, that Ankara has not severed its relations with Hamas. Erdogan held a telephone call with Haniyeh on Saturday to discuss the release of hostages, a ceasefire and delivery of aid to civilians. He then held talks with NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg to discuss Gaza.

Yetkin added that the United States and European Union probably expect Türkiye, Egypt and Qatar to play a role in the release of hostages held by Hamas, while still also opposing contacts with the movement.

The Palestinian movement’s attack had put Türkiye in a difficult position in balancing its foreign relations.

The Al Monitor report, by Turkish journalist Fehim Tastekin, said Türkiye “has been trying to carefully calibrate its stance in the face of the war (...), maintaining its advocacy of the Palestinian cause while cooling ties with Hamas and seeking to avoid a fresh fallout with Israel.”

It noted that “the crisis hit at a time when Erdogan is pursuing normalization with regional powers, including Israel.”

“At first glance, one could suggest that the Erdogan government’s close relations with Hamas have now driven it into a corner. Moreover, one could expect growing US pressure on Ankara to sever ties with Hamas after the dust settles,” it added.

Türkiye has been seeking to normalize relations with Israel after years of tensions. Erdogan met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly on September 20 for the first time in years.

Moreover, Hamas’ attack derailed a visit to Israel by Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar, who was expected to discuss a pipeline deal that would have carried natural gas from Israel to Europe through Türkiye.

Hamas’ attack has even led to criticism from Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP). For the first time, journalists in pro-AKP media have described Hamas’ attack as “terrorist” and a “war crime”, saying its practices were no different than the repeated Israeli violations against the Palestinians.

However, the Israeli escalation in Gaza and disproportionate response, attacks on hospitals, schools and places of worship, as well as Washington’s green light for Israel to continue its operation, have sparked condemnation in Türkiye.

Anger against Israel has been expressed by the Turkish street, prompting Israel to pull out its diplomats from Türkiye for security reasons. The AKP is also planning to hold a rally in Istanbul on Saturday in solidarity with Gaza.



Trump Carves Up World and International Order with It

Analysts say talks to end the war in Ukraine 'could resemble a new Yalta'. TASS/AFP
Analysts say talks to end the war in Ukraine 'could resemble a new Yalta'. TASS/AFP
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Trump Carves Up World and International Order with It

Analysts say talks to end the war in Ukraine 'could resemble a new Yalta'. TASS/AFP
Analysts say talks to end the war in Ukraine 'could resemble a new Yalta'. TASS/AFP

By casting doubt on the world order, Donald Trump risks dragging the globe back into an era where great powers impose their imperial will on the weak, analysts warn.
Russia wants Ukraine, China demands Taiwan and now the US president seems to be following suit, whether by coveting Canada as the "51st US state", insisting "we've got to have" Greenland or kicking Chinese interests out of the Panama Canal.
Where the United States once defended state sovereignty and international law, Trump's disregard for his neighbors' borders and expansionist ambitions mark a return to the days when the world was carved up into spheres of influence.
As recently as Wednesday, US defense secretary Pete Hegseth floated the idea of an American military base to secure the Panama Canal, a strategic waterway controlled by the United States until 1999 which Trump's administration has vowed to "take back".
Hegseth's comments came nearly 35 years after the United States invaded to topple Panama's dictator Manuel Noriega, harking back to when successive US administrations viewed Latin America as "America's backyard".
"The Trump 2.0 administration is largely accepting the familiar great power claim to 'spheres of influence'," Professor Gregory O. Hall, of the University of Kentucky, told AFP.
Indian diplomat Jawed Ashraf warned that by "speaking openly about Greenland, Canada, Panama Canal", "the new administration may have accelerated the slide" towards a return to great power domination.
The empire strikes back
Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has posed as the custodian of an international order "based on the ideas of countries' equal sovereignty and territorial integrity", said American researcher Jeffrey Mankoff, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
But those principles run counter to how Russia and China see their own interests, according to the author of "Empires of Eurasia: how imperial legacies shape international security".
Both countries are "themselves products of empires and continue to function in many ways like empires", seeking to throw their weight around for reasons of prestige, power or protection, Mankoff said.
That is not to say that spheres of influence disappeared with the fall of the Soviet Union.
"Even then, the US and Western allies sought to expand their sphere of influence eastward into what was the erstwhile Soviet and then the Russian sphere of influence," Ashraf, a former adviser to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, pointed out.
But until the return of Trump, the United States exploited its position as the "policeman of the world" to ward off imperial ambitions while pushing its own interests.
Now that Trump appears to view the cost of upholding a rules-based order challenged by its rivals and increasingly criticized in the rest of the world as too expensive, the United States is contributing to the cracks in the facade with Russia and China's help.
And as the international order weakens, the great powers "see opportunities to once again behave in an imperial way", said Mankoff.
Yalta yet again
As at Yalta in 1945, when the United States and the Soviet Union divided the post-World War II world between their respective zones of influence, Washington, Beijing and Moscow could again agree to carve up the globe anew.
"Improved ties between the United States and its great-power rivals, Russia and China, appear to be imminent," Derek Grossman, of the United States' RAND Corporation think tank, said in March.
But the haggling over who gets dominance over what and where would likely come at the expense of other countries.
"Today's major powers are seeking to negotiate a new global order primarily with each other," Monica Toft, professor of international relations at Tufts University in Massachusets wrote in the journal Foreign Affairs.
"In a scenario in which the United States, China, and Russia all agree that they have a vital interest in avoiding a nuclear war, acknowledging each other's spheres of influence can serve as a mechanism to deter escalation," Toft said.
If that were the case, "negotiations to end the war in Ukraine could resemble a new Yalta", she added.
Yet the thought of a Ukraine deemed by Trump to be in Russia's sphere is likely to send shivers down the spines of many in Europe -- not least in Ukraine itself.
"The success or failure of Ukraine to defend its sovereignty is going to have a lot of impact in terms of what the global system ends up looking like a generation from now," Mankoff said.
"So it's important for countries that have the ability and want to uphold an anti-imperial version of international order to assist Ukraine," he added -- pointing the finger at Europe.
"In Trump's world, Europeans need their own sphere of influence," said Rym Momtaz, a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace.
"For former imperial powers, Europeans seem strangely on the backfoot as nineteenth century spheres of influence come back as the organising principle of global affairs."