Oil Up as Market Watches US-China Trade Talks

FILE - Pumpjacks are seen before sunrise in Hobbs, N.M., Feb. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez, File)
FILE - Pumpjacks are seen before sunrise in Hobbs, N.M., Feb. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez, File)
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Oil Up as Market Watches US-China Trade Talks

FILE - Pumpjacks are seen before sunrise in Hobbs, N.M., Feb. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez, File)
FILE - Pumpjacks are seen before sunrise in Hobbs, N.M., Feb. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez, File)

Oil prices climbed on Tuesday as investors awaited the outcome of US-China talks that could pave the way for easing trade tensions and improve fuel demand.

Brent crude futures rose 28 cents, or 0.4%, to $67.32 a barrel by 0330 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude was up 23 cents, or 0.4%, at $65.52.

On Monday, Brent had risen to $67.19, the highest since April 28, buoyed by the prospect of a US-China trade deal, Reuters said.

US-China trade talks were set to continue for a second day in London as top officials aimed to ease tensions that have expanded from tariffs to rare earth curbs, risking global supply chain disruptions and slower growth.

Prices have recovered as demand concerns have faded with the trade talks between Washington and Beijing and a favorable US jobs report, while there are risks to North American supply due to wildfires in Canada, Goldman Sachs analysts said.

US President Donald Trump said on Monday that the talks with China were going well and he was "only getting good reports" from his team in London.

A trade deal between the US and China could support the global economic outlook and boost demand for commodities including oil.

Elsewhere, Iran said it would soon hand a counter-proposal for a nuclear deal to the US in response to a US offer that Tehran deems "unacceptable", while Trump made clear that the two sides remained at odds over whether the country would be allowed to continue enriching uranium on Iranian soil.

Iran is the third-largest producer among members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and any easing of US sanctions on Iran would allow it to export more oil, weighing on global crude prices.

OPEC+, which pumps about half of the world's oil and includes OPEC members and allies such as Russia, is accelerating its plan to unwind its most recent layer of output cuts.

"The prospect of further hikes in OPEC supply continues to hang over the market," Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ, said in a note.

"A permanent shift to a market driven strategy (in OPEC) would push the oil market into a sizeable surplus in H2 2025 and almost surely lead to lower oil prices."



Oil Slips as Iran-Israel Conflict Enters Sixth Day

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
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Oil Slips as Iran-Israel Conflict Enters Sixth Day

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo

Oil prices fell on Wednesday, after a gain of 4% in the previous session, as markets weighed up the chance of supply disruptions from the Iran-Israel conflict and as they ponder a direct US involvement.

Brent crude futures fell 93 cents, or 1.2%, to $75.52 a barrel by 0918 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 88 cents, also 1.2%, to $73.96 per barrel.

US President Trump warned on social media on Tuesday that US patience was wearing thin, and called for an "unconditional surrender" from Iran.

While he said there was no intention to kill Iran's leader Ali Khamenei "for now," his comments suggested a tougher stance toward Iran as he weighs whether to deepen US involvement.

A source familiar with internal discussions said one of the options Trump and his team are considering included joining Israel on strikes against Iranian nuclear sites.

A direct US involvement threatens to widen the confrontation further, putting energy infrastructure in the region at higher risk of attack, analysts say.

"The biggest fear for the oil market is the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz," ING analysts said in a note.

"Almost a third of global seaborne oil trade moves through this chokepoint. A significant disruption to these flows would be enough to push prices to $120 [a barrel]," the bank added.

Iran is OPEC's third-largest producer, extracting about 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil.

Meanwhile, Iranian ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva Ali Bahreini said on Wednesday that Tehran has conveyed to Washington that it will respond firmly to the United States if it becomes directly involved in Israel's military campaign.

Markets are also looking ahead to a second day of US Federal Reserve discussions on Wednesday, in which the central bank is expected to leave its benchmark overnight interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%.

However, the conflict in the Middle East and the risk of slowing global growth could potentially push the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in July, sooner than the market's current expectation of September, said Tony Sycamore, market analyst with IG.

Lower interest rates generally boost economic growth and demand for oil.

Confounding the decision for the Fed, however, is the Middle East conflict's potential creation of a new source of inflation via surging oil prices.

US crude stocks fell by 10.1 million barrels in the week ended June 13, market sources told Reuters, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Official Energy Information Administration data is due later on Wednesday.