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What Happens Next after RSF Captures Sudan’s Nyala?

RSF forces in Sudan. (AP file photo)
RSF forces in Sudan. (AP file photo)
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What Happens Next after RSF Captures Sudan’s Nyala?

RSF forces in Sudan. (AP file photo)
RSF forces in Sudan. (AP file photo)

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) seized control of Sudan’s second largest city Nyala on Thursday, marking a possible turning point in the six-month conflict.

The RSF declared the capture of the army's 16th Infantry Division, the military’s western command center, effectively seizing Nyala, the capital of the state of South Darfur.

The development could pave the way for the RSF to advance on El Obeid city, capital of the besieged state of North Kordofan, and other Darfur states.

The development took place hours after the rival Sudanese parties returned to the negotiations table in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, in response to efforts led by the Kingdom and the United States to resolve the conflict.

The army has yet to confirm or deny the fall of its 16th Infantry Division. Several activists, who support the army, first denied the development, but later revealed that the military had “withdrawn” from its base to regroup ahead of the launch of an operation to reclaim it.

Activists and witnesses confirmed that Nyala is now under full RSF control.

The western command is the second most powerful military force in Sudan after the command headquarters in Khartoum. It is controlled by the 16th Infantry Division and comprised of eight military bases inside Nyala and 13 outside the city.

Concerns have arisen that the fall of Nyala could impact the negotiations in Jeddah, while some observers have said the development may strengthen the negotiations position of either party.

Economic and military significance

Nyala is Sudan’s second most significant economic hub after Khartoum given its geographic location. It largely relies on imports and exports. It boasts Nyala International Airport and a railway that connects it to the other parts of the country.

It is also located close to Chad, central African nations and South Sudan, making it a significant border trade hub. Nyala is home to the largest cattle market and boasts major agricultural crops, such as peanuts, millet and various fruits and vegetables. It is also the greatest exporter of gum arabic and cattle. Its residents rely on agriculture, herding and trade.

Retired Lieutenant Colonel Tayeb al-Malkabi told Asharq Al-Awsat that the capture of Nyala is significant given its military importance and since it is Sudan’s second largest city in terms of residents and economic resources.

It is the most important city in the whole of Darfur, he stressed.

Its capture allows the RSF to control various vital resources, as well as Nyala International Airport that can receive all types of aircraft and offer logistic aviation services.

Malkabi said the fall of Nyala means the collapse of military camps and units. It allows the RSF to recruit and train more members in complete security.

He added that RSF now enters a new phase of the war in which it has gained greater military, economic and political strength.

Journalist Ezzeldin Dahab, who hails from Nyala, said the RSF has claimed a victory in the war against the army.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the RSF now faces the challenge of demonstrating its ability in providing security and services to the residents and returning life to normal.

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Fear Grips Alawites in Syria’s Homs as Assad ‘Remnants’ Targeted

A member of security forces reporting to Syria's interim government checks the identification of a motorist at a checkpoint in Homs in west-central Syria on January 8, 2025. (AFP)
A member of security forces reporting to Syria's interim government checks the identification of a motorist at a checkpoint in Homs in west-central Syria on January 8, 2025. (AFP)
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Fear Grips Alawites in Syria’s Homs as Assad ‘Remnants’ Targeted

A member of security forces reporting to Syria's interim government checks the identification of a motorist at a checkpoint in Homs in west-central Syria on January 8, 2025. (AFP)
A member of security forces reporting to Syria's interim government checks the identification of a motorist at a checkpoint in Homs in west-central Syria on January 8, 2025. (AFP)

In Syria's third city Homs, members of ousted president Bashar al-Assad's Alawite community say they are terrified as new authorities comb their districts for "remnants of the regime", arresting hundreds.

In central Homs, the marketplace buzzes with people buying fruit and vegetables from vendors in bombed-out buildings riddled with bullet holes.

But at the entrance to areas where the city's Alawite minority lives, armed men in fatigues have set up roadblocks and checkpoints.

People in one such neighborhood, speaking anonymously to AFP for fear of reprisals, said young men had been taken away, including soldiers and conscripts who had surrendered their weapons as instructed by the new led authorities.

Two of them said armed men stationed at one checkpoint, since dismantled after complaints, had been questioning people about the religious sect.

"We have been living in fear," said a resident of the Alawite-majority Zahra district.

"At first, they spoke of isolated incidents. But there is nothing isolated about so many of them."

- 'Majority are civilians' -

Since opposition factions led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group seized power on December 8, Syria's new leadership has repeatedly sought to reassure minorities they will not be harmed.

But Alawites fear a backlash against their sect, long associated with the Assads.

The new authorities deny wrongdoing, saying they are after former Assad forces.

Shihadi Mayhoub, a former lawmaker from Homs, said he had been documenting alleged violations in Zahra.

"So far, I have about 600 names of arrested people" in Zahra, out of more than 1,380 in the whole of Homs city, he told AFP.

Among those detained are "retired brigadiers, colonels who settled their affairs in dedicated centers, lieutenants and majors".

But "the majority are civilians and conscripted soldiers," he said.

In the district of Al-Sabil, a group of officers were beaten in front of their wives, he added.

Authorities in Homs have been responsive to residents' pleas and promised to release the detained soon, Mayhoub said, adding groups allied to the new rulers were behind the violations.

Another man in Zahra told AFP he had not heard from his son, a soldier, since he was arrested at a checkpoint in the neighboring province of Hama last week.

- 'Anger' -

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor says at least 1,800 people, overwhelmingly Alawites, have been detained in Homs city and the wider province.

Across Syria, violence against Alawites has surged, with the Britain-based Observatory recording at least 150 killings, mostly in Homs and Hama provinces.

Early in the civil war, sparked by a crackdown on democracy protests in 2011, Homs was dubbed the "capital of the revolution" by activists who dreamt of a Syria free from Assad's rule.

The crackdown was especially brutal in Homs, home to a sizeable Alawite minority, as districts were besieged and fighting ravaged its historical center, where the bloodiest sectarian violence occurred.

Today, videos circulating online show gunmen rounding up men in Homs. AFP could not verify all the videos but spoke to Mahmud Abu Ali, an HTS member from Homs who filmed himself ordering the men.

He said the people in the video were accused of belonging to pro-Assad militias who "committed massacres" in Homs during the war.

"I wanted to relieve the anger I felt on behalf of all those people killed," the 21-year-old said, adding the dead included his parents and siblings.

- 'Tired of war' -

Abu Yusuf, an HTS official involved in security sweeps, said forces had found three weapons depots and "dozens of wanted people".

Authorities said the five-day operation ended Monday, but Abu Yusuf said searches were ongoing as districts "have still not been completely cleansed of regime remnants".

"We want security and safety for all: Sunnis, Alawites, Christians, everyone," he said, denying reports of violations.

Homs lay in ruins for years after the former regime retook full control.

In Baba Amr neighborhood, an opposition bastion retaken in 2012, buildings have collapsed from bombardment or bear bullet marks, with debris still clogging streets.

After fleeing to Lebanon more than a decade ago, Fayez al-Jammal, 46, returned this week with his wife and seven children to a devastated home without doors, furniture or windows.

He pointed to the ruined buildings where neighbors were killed or disappeared, but said revenge was far from his mind.

"We are tired of war and humiliation. We just want everyone to be able to live their lives," he said.