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What Happens Next after RSF Captures Sudan’s Nyala?

RSF forces in Sudan. (AP file photo)
RSF forces in Sudan. (AP file photo)
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What Happens Next after RSF Captures Sudan’s Nyala?

RSF forces in Sudan. (AP file photo)
RSF forces in Sudan. (AP file photo)

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) seized control of Sudan’s second largest city Nyala on Thursday, marking a possible turning point in the six-month conflict.

The RSF declared the capture of the army's 16th Infantry Division, the military’s western command center, effectively seizing Nyala, the capital of the state of South Darfur.

The development could pave the way for the RSF to advance on El Obeid city, capital of the besieged state of North Kordofan, and other Darfur states.

The development took place hours after the rival Sudanese parties returned to the negotiations table in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, in response to efforts led by the Kingdom and the United States to resolve the conflict.

The army has yet to confirm or deny the fall of its 16th Infantry Division. Several activists, who support the army, first denied the development, but later revealed that the military had “withdrawn” from its base to regroup ahead of the launch of an operation to reclaim it.

Activists and witnesses confirmed that Nyala is now under full RSF control.

The western command is the second most powerful military force in Sudan after the command headquarters in Khartoum. It is controlled by the 16th Infantry Division and comprised of eight military bases inside Nyala and 13 outside the city.

Concerns have arisen that the fall of Nyala could impact the negotiations in Jeddah, while some observers have said the development may strengthen the negotiations position of either party.

Economic and military significance

Nyala is Sudan’s second most significant economic hub after Khartoum given its geographic location. It largely relies on imports and exports. It boasts Nyala International Airport and a railway that connects it to the other parts of the country.

It is also located close to Chad, central African nations and South Sudan, making it a significant border trade hub. Nyala is home to the largest cattle market and boasts major agricultural crops, such as peanuts, millet and various fruits and vegetables. It is also the greatest exporter of gum arabic and cattle. Its residents rely on agriculture, herding and trade.

Retired Lieutenant Colonel Tayeb al-Malkabi told Asharq Al-Awsat that the capture of Nyala is significant given its military importance and since it is Sudan’s second largest city in terms of residents and economic resources.

It is the most important city in the whole of Darfur, he stressed.

Its capture allows the RSF to control various vital resources, as well as Nyala International Airport that can receive all types of aircraft and offer logistic aviation services.

Malkabi said the fall of Nyala means the collapse of military camps and units. It allows the RSF to recruit and train more members in complete security.

He added that RSF now enters a new phase of the war in which it has gained greater military, economic and political strength.

Journalist Ezzeldin Dahab, who hails from Nyala, said the RSF has claimed a victory in the war against the army.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the RSF now faces the challenge of demonstrating its ability in providing security and services to the residents and returning life to normal.

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Report: Trump Opposed Planned Israeli Strike on Iranian Nuclear Sites

In this photo provided by the Israeli army, armed Israeli Air Force planes depart from an unknown location to attack Iran on Oct. 26, 2024. (Israeli Army via AP, File)
In this photo provided by the Israeli army, armed Israeli Air Force planes depart from an unknown location to attack Iran on Oct. 26, 2024. (Israeli Army via AP, File)
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Report: Trump Opposed Planned Israeli Strike on Iranian Nuclear Sites

In this photo provided by the Israeli army, armed Israeli Air Force planes depart from an unknown location to attack Iran on Oct. 26, 2024. (Israeli Army via AP, File)
In this photo provided by the Israeli army, armed Israeli Air Force planes depart from an unknown location to attack Iran on Oct. 26, 2024. (Israeli Army via AP, File)

Israel had planned to strike Iranian nuclear sites as soon as next month but was waved off by President Trump in recent weeks in favor of negotiating a deal with Tehran to limit its nuclear program, according to administration officials and others briefed on the discussions, reported the New York Times.

Trump made his decision after months of internal debate over whether to pursue diplomacy or support Israel in seeking to set back Iran’s ability to build a bomb, at a time when Iran has been weakened militarily and economically.

The debate highlighted fault lines between historically hawkish American cabinet officials and other aides more skeptical that a military assault on Iran could destroy the country’s nuclear ambitions and avoid a larger war. It resulted in a rough consensus, for now, against military action, with Iran signaling a willingness to negotiate.

Israeli officials had recently developed plans to attack Iranian nuclear sites in May. They were prepared to carry them out, and at times were optimistic that the United States would sign off. The goal of the proposals, according to officials briefed on them, was to set back Tehran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon by a year or more.

Almost all of the plans would have required US help not just to defend Israel from Iranian retaliation, but also to ensure that an Israeli attack was successful, making the United States a central part of the attack itself.

For now, Trump has chosen diplomacy over military action. In his first term, he tore up the Iran nuclear deal negotiated by the Obama administration. But in his second term, eager to avoid being sucked into another war in the Middle East, he has opened negotiations with Tehran, giving it a deadline of just a few months to negotiate a deal over its nuclear program.

Earlier this month, Trump informed Israel of his decision that the United States would not support an attack. He discussed it with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu when Netanyahu visited Washington last week, using an Oval Office meeting to announce that the United States was beginning talks with Iran.

In a statement delivered in Hebrew after the meeting, Netanyahu said that an agreement with Iran would only work if it allowed the signatories to “go in, blow up the facilities, dismantle all the equipment, under American supervision with American execution.”

The New York Times based its report on conversations with multiple officials briefed on Israel’s secret miliary plans and confidential discussions inside the Trump administration. Most of the people interviewed spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss military planning.

Israel has long planned to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, rehearsing bombing runs and calculating how much damage it could do with or without American help.

But support within the Israeli government for a strike grew after Iran suffered a string of setbacks last year.

In attacks on Israel in April, most of Iran’s ballistic missiles were unable to penetrate American and Israeli defenses. Hezbollah, Iran’s key ally, was decimated by an Israeli military campaign last year. The subsequent fall of the government of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria eliminated a Hezbollah and Tehran ally and cut off a prime route of weapons smuggling from Iran.

Air defense systems in Iran and Syria were also destroyed, along with the facilities that Iran uses to make missile fuel, crippling the country’s ability to produce new missiles for some time.

Initially, at the behest of Netanyahu, senior Israeli officials updated their American counterparts on a plan that would have combined an Israeli commando raid on underground nuclear sites with a bombing campaign, an effort that the Israelis hoped would involve American aircraft, reported the New York Times.

But Israeli military officials said the commando operation would not be ready until October. Netanyahu wanted it carried out more quickly. Israeli officials began shifting to a proposal for an extended bombing campaign that would have also required American assistance, according to officials briefed on the plan.

Some American officials were at least initially more open to considering the Israeli plans. Gen. Michael E. Kurilla, the head of US Central Command, and Michael Waltz, the national security adviser, both discussed how the United States could potentially support an Israeli attack, if Trump backed the plan, according to officials briefed on the discussions.

With the United States intensifying its war against the Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, Kurilla, with the blessing of the White House, began moving military equipment to the Middle East. A second aircraft carrier, Carl Vinson, is now in the Middle East, joining the carrier Harry S. Truman in the Red Sea.

The United States also moved two Patriot missile batteries and a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, known as a THAAD, to the Middle East.

Around a half-dozen B-2 bombers capable of carrying 30,000-pound bombs essential to destroying Iran’s underground nuclear program were dispatched to Diego Garcia, an island base in the Indian Ocean.

Even if the United States decided not to authorize the aircraft to take part in a strike on Iran, Israel would know that the American fighters were available to defend against attacks by an Iranian ally.