What Happens Next after RSF Captures Sudan’s Nyala?

RSF forces in Sudan. (AP file photo)
RSF forces in Sudan. (AP file photo)
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What Happens Next after RSF Captures Sudan’s Nyala?

RSF forces in Sudan. (AP file photo)
RSF forces in Sudan. (AP file photo)

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) seized control of Sudan’s second largest city Nyala on Thursday, marking a possible turning point in the six-month conflict.

The RSF declared the capture of the army's 16th Infantry Division, the military’s western command center, effectively seizing Nyala, the capital of the state of South Darfur.

The development could pave the way for the RSF to advance on El Obeid city, capital of the besieged state of North Kordofan, and other Darfur states.

The development took place hours after the rival Sudanese parties returned to the negotiations table in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, in response to efforts led by the Kingdom and the United States to resolve the conflict.

The army has yet to confirm or deny the fall of its 16th Infantry Division. Several activists, who support the army, first denied the development, but later revealed that the military had “withdrawn” from its base to regroup ahead of the launch of an operation to reclaim it.

Activists and witnesses confirmed that Nyala is now under full RSF control.

The western command is the second most powerful military force in Sudan after the command headquarters in Khartoum. It is controlled by the 16th Infantry Division and comprised of eight military bases inside Nyala and 13 outside the city.

Concerns have arisen that the fall of Nyala could impact the negotiations in Jeddah, while some observers have said the development may strengthen the negotiations position of either party.

Economic and military significance

Nyala is Sudan’s second most significant economic hub after Khartoum given its geographic location. It largely relies on imports and exports. It boasts Nyala International Airport and a railway that connects it to the other parts of the country.

It is also located close to Chad, central African nations and South Sudan, making it a significant border trade hub. Nyala is home to the largest cattle market and boasts major agricultural crops, such as peanuts, millet and various fruits and vegetables. It is also the greatest exporter of gum arabic and cattle. Its residents rely on agriculture, herding and trade.

Retired Lieutenant Colonel Tayeb al-Malkabi told Asharq Al-Awsat that the capture of Nyala is significant given its military importance and since it is Sudan’s second largest city in terms of residents and economic resources.

It is the most important city in the whole of Darfur, he stressed.

Its capture allows the RSF to control various vital resources, as well as Nyala International Airport that can receive all types of aircraft and offer logistic aviation services.

Malkabi said the fall of Nyala means the collapse of military camps and units. It allows the RSF to recruit and train more members in complete security.

He added that RSF now enters a new phase of the war in which it has gained greater military, economic and political strength.

Journalist Ezzeldin Dahab, who hails from Nyala, said the RSF has claimed a victory in the war against the army.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the RSF now faces the challenge of demonstrating its ability in providing security and services to the residents and returning life to normal.



Winter Will Hamper, But Not Halt, Israel’s War on Hezbollah in Lebanon

A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
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Winter Will Hamper, But Not Halt, Israel’s War on Hezbollah in Lebanon

A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)

The ground battles between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon remain intense, with no end in sight for the coming weeks. The arrival of winter will bring weather changes that could slow down operations. but won't stop the fighting.

Experts say that while winter weather, especially rain and fog, can make it harder for fighters and vehicles to move, it has a limited impact on the overall conflict. Air operations, which rely on advanced technology, are less affected.

The region’s mild winter conditions, unlike harsher winters in other countries, will not be a decisive factor in the battle.

Retired General Abdul Rahman Shheitly believes that modern military equipment is designed to work in any weather.

However, he told Asharq Al-Awsat that fog and rain can give both sides an advantage by obscuring visibility, making it harder to spot each other.

This benefits the attacking side, Israel, which has superior technology, while Hezbollah’s movements could be hindered by muddy terrain.

Shheitly also noted that weather affects displaced civilians, which could put pressure on political negotiations to end the conflict.

Retired General Hassan Jouni, former deputy chief of staff of operations in the Lebanese Armed Forces, argued that weather conditions affect the attacker more than the defender. Since Hezbollah is defending its ground, it is less impacted by the cold and rain.

The weather only slightly affects vehicle movement, and does not stop the fighting.

Jouni noted that the region doesn’t experience severe winter weather, so air operations will be unaffected by rain or cold. Modern drones, missiles, and aircraft are designed to function in such conditions, with GPS ensuring precise targeting.

Both Hezbollah and Israel rely heavily on drones. Hezbollah’s drones are noted for their accuracy and ability to avoid Israel’s Iron Dome defense, while Israel uses drones for surveillance and targeted strikes.

More than a year has passed since the conflict began after Hezbollah opened its "support front” for Hamas on October 8, 2023. The fighting, mostly limited to airstrikes during the winter of 2023, escalated with Israel’s ground operation a month ago, though its full goals remain unclear.

As the ground battles continue, Israel seems focused on creating a buffer zone in the South rather than occupying towns. Israel has destroyed over 37 villages to achieve this goal.

The next steps remain uncertain.

Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi has stated that the military is preparing for further ground operations in southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah remains determined to hold its ground and prevent Israeli advances.