Winter Will Hamper, But Not Halt, Israel’s War on Hezbollah in Lebanon

A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
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Winter Will Hamper, But Not Halt, Israel’s War on Hezbollah in Lebanon

A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)

The ground battles between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon remain intense, with no end in sight for the coming weeks. The arrival of winter will bring weather changes that could slow down operations. but won't stop the fighting.

Experts say that while winter weather, especially rain and fog, can make it harder for fighters and vehicles to move, it has a limited impact on the overall conflict. Air operations, which rely on advanced technology, are less affected.

The region’s mild winter conditions, unlike harsher winters in other countries, will not be a decisive factor in the battle.

Retired General Abdul Rahman Shheitly believes that modern military equipment is designed to work in any weather.

However, he told Asharq Al-Awsat that fog and rain can give both sides an advantage by obscuring visibility, making it harder to spot each other.

This benefits the attacking side, Israel, which has superior technology, while Hezbollah’s movements could be hindered by muddy terrain.

Shheitly also noted that weather affects displaced civilians, which could put pressure on political negotiations to end the conflict.

Retired General Hassan Jouni, former deputy chief of staff of operations in the Lebanese Armed Forces, argued that weather conditions affect the attacker more than the defender. Since Hezbollah is defending its ground, it is less impacted by the cold and rain.

The weather only slightly affects vehicle movement, and does not stop the fighting.

Jouni noted that the region doesn’t experience severe winter weather, so air operations will be unaffected by rain or cold. Modern drones, missiles, and aircraft are designed to function in such conditions, with GPS ensuring precise targeting.

Both Hezbollah and Israel rely heavily on drones. Hezbollah’s drones are noted for their accuracy and ability to avoid Israel’s Iron Dome defense, while Israel uses drones for surveillance and targeted strikes.

More than a year has passed since the conflict began after Hezbollah opened its "support front” for Hamas on October 8, 2023. The fighting, mostly limited to airstrikes during the winter of 2023, escalated with Israel’s ground operation a month ago, though its full goals remain unclear.

As the ground battles continue, Israel seems focused on creating a buffer zone in the South rather than occupying towns. Israel has destroyed over 37 villages to achieve this goal.

The next steps remain uncertain.

Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi has stated that the military is preparing for further ground operations in southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah remains determined to hold its ground and prevent Israeli advances.



Nobel Laureate Narges Mohammadi to Publish Two Books

Narges Mohammadi has been jailed repeatedly over the past 25 years - AFP
Narges Mohammadi has been jailed repeatedly over the past 25 years - AFP
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Nobel Laureate Narges Mohammadi to Publish Two Books

Narges Mohammadi has been jailed repeatedly over the past 25 years - AFP
Narges Mohammadi has been jailed repeatedly over the past 25 years - AFP

Narges Mohammadi, the Iranian 2023 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, will publish her autobiography and is working on a book on women held like her on political charges, she said in an interview published Thursday.

"I've finished my autobiography and I plan to publish it. I'm writing another book on assaults and sexual harassment against women detained in Iran. I hope it will appear soon," Mohammadi, 52, told French magazine Elle.

The human rights activist spoke to her interviewers in Farsi by text and voice message during a three-week provisional release from prison on medical grounds after undergoing bone surgery, according to AFP.

Mohammadi has been jailed repeatedly over the past 25 years, most recently since November 2021, for convictions relating to her advocacy against the compulsory wearing of the hijab for women and capital punishment in Iran.

She has been held in the notorious Evin prison in Tehran, which has left a physical toll.

"My body is weakened, it is true, after three years of intermittent detention... and repeated refusals of care that have seriously tested me, but my mind is of steel," Mohammadi said.

Mohammadi said there were 70 prisoners in the women's ward at Evin "from all walks of life, of all ages and of all political persuasions", including journalists, writers, women's rights activists and people persecuted for their religion.

One of the most commonly used "instruments of torture" is isolation, said Mohammadi, who shares a cell with 13 other prisoners.

"It is a place where political prisoners die. I have personally documented cases of torture and serious sexual violence against my fellow prisoners."

Despite the harsh consequences, there are still acts of resistance by prisoners.

"Recently, 45 out of 70 prisoners gathered to protest in the prison yard against the death sentences of Pakhshan Azizi and Varisheh Moradi," two Kurdish women's rights activists who are in prison, she said.

Small acts of defiance -- like organizing sit-ins -- can get them reprisals like being barred from visiting hours or telephone access.

- Risks of speaking up -

She also said that speaking to reporters would likely get her "new accusations", and that she was the target of additional prosecutions and convictions "approximately every month".

"It is a challenge for us political prisoners to fight to maintain a semblance of normality because it is about showing our torturers that they will not be able to reach us, to break us," Mohammadi said.

She added that she had felt "guilty to have left my fellow detainees behind" during her temporary release and that "a part of (her) was still in prison".

But her reception outside -- including by women refusing to wear the compulsory hijab -- meant Mohammadi "felt what freedom is, to have freedom of movement without permanent escort by guards, without locks and closed windows" -- and also that "the 'Women, Life, Freedom' movement is still alive".

She was referring to the nationwide protests that erupted after the September 2022 death in custody of Mahsa Amini.

Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian Kurd, was arrested for an alleged breach of Iran's dress code for women.

Hundreds of people, including dozens of security personnel, were killed in the subsequent months-long nationwide protests and thousands of demonstrators were arrested.

After Mohammadi was awarded last year's Nobel Peace Prize, her two children collected the award on her behalf.

The US State Department last month called Mohammadi's situation "deeply troubling".

"Her deteriorating health is a direct result of the abuses that she's endured at the hands of the Iranian regime," State Department spokesman Vedant Patel said, calling for her "immediate and unconditional" release.