Erdogan Vows Victory over ‘Imperialists’ on Türkiye's Centenary

People pass under the Turkish Flag on Istiklal Street, Istanbul, Wednesday, Oct. 25, 2023. (AP)
People pass under the Turkish Flag on Istiklal Street, Istanbul, Wednesday, Oct. 25, 2023. (AP)
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Erdogan Vows Victory over ‘Imperialists’ on Türkiye's Centenary

People pass under the Turkish Flag on Istiklal Street, Istanbul, Wednesday, Oct. 25, 2023. (AP)
People pass under the Turkish Flag on Istiklal Street, Istanbul, Wednesday, Oct. 25, 2023. (AP)

President Recep Tayyip vowed on Sunday to stand up to "imperialist" forces as he led Turkish centenary celebrations in the shadow of Israel's escalating war with Hamas militants in Gaza.  

Erdogan took center stage during day-long events that both honored the republic's secular founder and played up the achievement of his Islamic-rooted party that has run Türkiye since 2002.  

"Our country is in safe hands, you may rest in peace," Erdogan said after laying a wreath at the mausoleum of military commander and statesman Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.

"We will be successful and victorious. No imperialist power can prevent this," Erdogan added in an evening address in Istanbul.

Ataturk is lionized across Turkish society for driving out invading forces and building a brand new nation out of the fallen Ottoman Empire's ruins in the wake of World War I.

He formed as a Westward-facing nation that stripped religion from its state institutions and tried to forge a modern new identity out of its myriad ethnic groups.  

It eventually became a proud member of the US-led NATO defense alliance.

"We are Ataturk's daughters, we are the children of the republic," pensioner Nerguzel Asik said after watching a military parade in Istanbul.  

"We feel 'Turkishness' in every way," student Selin Gunes agreed.  

Social transformation  

But Ataturk's social and geopolitical transformation of the overwhelmingly Muslim nation created divisions that weigh on Turkish politics to this day.  

Erdogan tapped into these as he led his conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) to power over the leftist Republican People's Party (CHP) formed by Ataturk.  

He has spent much of the past decade testing the limits of Türkiye's secular traditions, as well as its ties with the West.

These competing forces were on full display as Erdogan moved from honoring Türkiye's past to celebrating his own government's achievements while he was prime minister and president.

Erdogan ended the day by overseeing 100 navy ships pass through the Bosphorus while screaming fighter jets performed aerobatics overhead.  

" Türkiye is a country that helps those who have no one, from the Balkans to the Caucasus, from Palestine to wherever there is a need," Erdogan told the nation.  

"The Palestinian rally (in Istanbul) was a part of this."  

Palestinian cause  

Sunday's celebrations have been partially eclipsed by Erdogan's increasingly fierce attacks against Israel over its response to the October 7 Hamas attacks.  

The militants indiscriminately killed 1,400 people, most of them civilians in their homes, on the streets and at an outdoor rave party, and took 220 hostages in a surprise raid that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the worst "since the Holocaust".  

Israel has retaliated with relentless air strikes and an unfolding ground offensive that the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza says has claimed more than 8,000 lives, most of them civilians.

Turkish state television has also scrapped the broadcast of concerts and other festivities because of the "alarming human tragedy in Gaza".  

Erdogan announced that 1.5 million people had come out for a pro-Palestinian rally in Istanbul on Saturday that ended up drowning out national television coverage of the centenary.  

Erdogan accused the Israeli government of behaving like a "war criminal" and trying to "eradicate" Palestinians.  

His remarks prompted Israel to announce the withdrawal of all diplomatic staff for a "re-evaluation" of relations.  

Turbulent spell  

The emerging diplomatic crisis further pulled attention away from Türkiye's birthday party and onto Erdogan's handling of global affairs.  

Türkiye has suffered a turbulent spell of relations with Western allies since Erdogan survived a failed coup attempt in 2016 that he blamed on a US-based Muslim preacher.

Some analysts saw Saturday's pro-Palestinian rally as part of Erdogan's tacit effort to undermine Ataturk's secular vision.  

But one survey suggested that Erdogan's comments play to his conservative core of supporters and not the public at large.  

The Metropoll survey showed just 11.3 percent of the respondents saying they "back Hamas" while more than half preferring to see Türkiye either stay "neutral" or mediate.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.