What Role Does the Lebanese Army Play on the Border with Israel?

Smoke rises on the Lebanese side of the border between Israel and Lebanon after an Israeli airstrike, as seen from northern Israel, November 18, 2023. (Reuters)
Smoke rises on the Lebanese side of the border between Israel and Lebanon after an Israeli airstrike, as seen from northern Israel, November 18, 2023. (Reuters)
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What Role Does the Lebanese Army Play on the Border with Israel?

Smoke rises on the Lebanese side of the border between Israel and Lebanon after an Israeli airstrike, as seen from northern Israel, November 18, 2023. (Reuters)
Smoke rises on the Lebanese side of the border between Israel and Lebanon after an Israeli airstrike, as seen from northern Israel, November 18, 2023. (Reuters)

The Lebanese army has been playing a limited role in the southern border regions ever since Hezbollah decided to support fighters in Gaza by opening Israel’s northern front with Lebanon.

Iran-backed Hezbollah has been clashing with Israeli forces on a daily basis since Hamas launched its Al-Aqsa Flood operation against Israel on October 7. At least 75 Hezbollah fighters have been killed so far.

Along with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), the army is committed to the implementation of UN Security Council resolution 1701. The resolution helped end a 33-day war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006.

The army has been active in preventing Palestinian groups from launching attacks against Israel from southern Lebanon. It has been dismantling rocket launchpads that have been discovered in the fields.

A security source told Asharq Al-Awsat that the army has been carrying out sweeps of border regions in search of rocket launchers.

The presence of the military and UNIFIL has been reassuring to the locals, it added, stressing that the army will remain in its positions and is prepared for “all possibilities”.

Moreover, the source explained that the army is operating with the cover of the government. Hezbollah’s operations are, meanwhile, being covered by the state and ministerial statements.

The actions of the Palestinian factions, however, are a cause for concern, amid fears that their operations could lead to the deterioration of the security situation in the South, it added.

Political and strategic affairs researcher Khalil al-Helou said: “Officially, Lebanon is committed to resolution 1701 and the army is part of this official stance. It is therefore committed to the resolution and will not violate the truce agreement.”

It was Hezbollah, not the army, that has fired missiles at Israel, so the military must not bear the brunt of Israel’s retaliation, he added. “Whoever fired the first shot must shoulder the consequences alone,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The residents of the South are already suffering the consequences, he noted. The army must not be placed in danger from Israel, especially given that the balance of power is clearly not in its favor. The balance is not even in Hezbollah’s favor seeing as it has already lost dozens of fighters in the clashes.

Moreover, Helou refused to describe the army as a “spectator” in the current developments in the South.

It is implementing resolution 1701 by trying as much as possible to prevent non-Lebanese groups from firing rockets at Israel from Lebanese territories, he went on to say.

This sends a clear message to Israel that the Lebanese state does not want to become involved in the conflict and that it is committed to resolution 1701, Helou explained.

Other roles played by the military include rescuing the wounded and retrieving corpses, he revealed, explaining that Hezbollah cannot do so in the open as it would leave its members exposed to Israeli fire. So, the Red Cross members or army are doing so instead.

Resolution 1701 helped end the hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah during the 2006 war. Israeli troops withdrew from Lebanon and more UNIFIL forces were deployed to the South in coordination with the military to monitor the ceasefire.

It also stipulated that only UNIFIL and the Lebanese army are allowed to be deployed in regions south of the Blue Line and Litani River, which must be free of gunmen.

The resolution has been violated on numerous occasions by both Israel and Hezbollah over the past 17 years. Israel has breached it with its repeated violations of Lebanon’s sovereignty, and it is obvious that Hezbollah has not withdrawn its weapons and fighters from areas south of the Litani.

Hezbollah’s latest round of fighting with Israel has raised several questions about the effectiveness of the resolution and whether the Security Council will issue a new amended version once the fighting in Gaza, and consequently southern Lebanon, ends.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.