Pressure Mounts on Israel for Longer Gaza Pause

 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits Gaza Strip, during a temporary truce between Hamas and Israel, in this handout obtained by Reuters on November 26, 2023.(Handout via Reuters)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits Gaza Strip, during a temporary truce between Hamas and Israel, in this handout obtained by Reuters on November 26, 2023.(Handout via Reuters)
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Pressure Mounts on Israel for Longer Gaza Pause

 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits Gaza Strip, during a temporary truce between Hamas and Israel, in this handout obtained by Reuters on November 26, 2023.(Handout via Reuters)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits Gaza Strip, during a temporary truce between Hamas and Israel, in this handout obtained by Reuters on November 26, 2023.(Handout via Reuters)

Israel faces mounting pressure to extend a four-day pause in its war against Hamas, but military officials fear that a longer truce risks blunting its efforts to rout the movement.

After hours of delay and acrimony that underscored the fragility of the truce, a second tranche of 13 Israeli hostages was freed on Saturday by Hamas in exchange for 39 Palestinian prisoners -- the same number as the previous day.

A total of 15 foreigners have also been released during the ceasefire -- mediated for weeks by Qatar, the United States and Egypt -- that marks the first breakthrough after seven weeks of relentless war.

Under the deal, 50 of the roughly 240 hostages held by the militants will be freed over four days in exchange for 150 Palestinian prisoners, with a built-in extension mechanism to prolong the process as long as at least 10 Israeli captives are released each day.

That increases the number of hostages returned -- and there is strong domestic pressure within Israel to do so -- but gives Hamas a longer window in which to regroup, recover, re-arm and ultimately return to the fight, analysts say.

It also increases diplomatic pressure on Israel from the international community, which will become steadily less willing to countenance a return to the pounding of Gaza and the resulting humanitarian crisis.

"Time works against Israel as always and against the IDF," said Andreas Krieg, of King's College London, referring to the Israeli military.

"On one hand you want all the hostages out knowing that you can't get them out militarily and on the other you don't want to lose completely the momentum of this war," he told AFP.

And the longer a truce lasted, he said, the more the international community would lose patience with a continuation of the war, he added.

But the Israeli military is determined to pursue its objective of "crushing" Hamas.

Visiting Israeli troops in the war-battered Gaza Strip on Saturday, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant insisted the timeline for the truce was "short".

"It won't take weeks, it will take days, more or less," he said, flanked by heavily armed soldiers. "Any further negotiations will take place under fire."

'Dilemma'

The war began after Palestinian militants smashed through the highly militarized border on October 7, killing about 1,200 people, mostly civilians, according to Israeli officials, and triggering Israel's invasion of Gaza.

Israel has defied international criticism of its Gaza offensive, which its Hamas rulers say has killed more than 15,000 people, mostly civilians, and left an unprecedented trail of destruction in the Palestinian territory.

"The real pressure (to prolong the truce) comes from inside Israel -- from the families of the hostages," said Arik Rudnitzky, from Tel Aviv University's Moshe Dayan Center.

On Saturday, tens of thousands of demonstrators packed the streets of Tel Aviv in support of the remaining hostages, chanting "Now, now, now, all of them now!" and clutching banners that read "Get them out of hell".

An Israeli military official said the country was committed to freeing as many hostages as possible but expressed concern that the longer the truce lasts the more time Hamas has to "rebuild its capabilities and attack Israel again".

"It's a terrible dilemma," he told AFP, requesting anonymity.

'You cannot win this'

The lead mediator in the negotiations for the pause in the fighting has been Qatar, whose foreign ministry spokesman Majed Al-Ansari told AFP there was a need to "maintain the momentum" for a lasting ceasefire.

"That can only be done when you have political will not only from the Israelis and Palestinians but also with the other partners who are working with us."

US President Joe Biden, a staunch ally of Israel, on Friday said "the chances are real" for extending the truce, as he urged a broader effort to achieve a two-state solution with a viable Palestinian state existing alongside Israel.

With a presidential election next year, there was no stomach in Washington for a prolonged intensive operation "for months and months on end", said Krieg of King's College London. "So the Biden administration needs to find an off ramp as well".

"There isn't a military solution to the conflict, you cannot win this," he added.

Senior Hamas official Taher al-Nunu said the group was "ready to search seriously to reach new deals".

But Hamas on Saturday delayed the handover of the second group of hostages for hours, accusing Israel of breaching the terms of the agreement -- claims denied by Israel.

Hamas would "play the long game with the hostages to try to exhaust the card over the longest possible length of time and at the greatest price to Israel," former Israeli intelligence official Avi Melamed told AFP.

It was hoping support within Israel for the Gaza Strip incursion would dissipate, and ultimately "international and internal pressures levied on Israel's government will create the circumstance where Hamas can continue to exist, and rule Gaza even after this war ends."

Independent Middle East analyst Eva Koulouriotis agreed.

"For Hamas, any scenario for this war that does not lead to an end to its presence in the Gaza Strip will be considered a victory," she told AFP. "Regardless of its human and material losses, of the extent of the destruction in Gaza, and of the extent of civilian casualties".



Yemeni Platform Warns of Houthis Expanding Influence to Horn of Africa

Yemenis lift placards and flags during a rally in the Houthi-controlled capital Sanaa in solidarity with Palestinians on July 26, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement. (AFP)
Yemenis lift placards and flags during a rally in the Houthi-controlled capital Sanaa in solidarity with Palestinians on July 26, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement. (AFP)
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Yemeni Platform Warns of Houthis Expanding Influence to Horn of Africa

Yemenis lift placards and flags during a rally in the Houthi-controlled capital Sanaa in solidarity with Palestinians on July 26, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement. (AFP)
Yemenis lift placards and flags during a rally in the Houthi-controlled capital Sanaa in solidarity with Palestinians on July 26, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement. (AFP)

A Yemeni platform focused on organized crime and money-laundering, PTOC, has warned of the dangers of the Iran-backed Houthi militias expanding their activities and influence to the Horn of Africa.

In a report, it said the militias were actively seeking to expand their operations there with the direct supervision of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and in coordination with the Lebanese Hezbollah militia, which is also backed by Tehran.

This is the first time that a report is filed about the Houthi plans in the Horn of Africa.

Asharq Al-Awsat received a copy of the report that details the Houthis’ expansionist plans at Iran’s direction. It discusses the Houthis’ smuggling and armament operations, recruitment and training of Africans, and identifies the officials responsible for the militias’ project in the Horn of Africa.

Overseeing the foreign expansion are leading Houthi officials Abdulwahed Abu Ras, Al-Hassan al-Marrani and Abu Haidar al-Qahoum, as well as head of the so-called security and intelligence agency Abdulhakim al-Khiwani and foreign operations agency official Hassan al-Kahlani, or Abu Shaheed.

The report also highlighted the role played by deputy Houthi foreign minister Hussein al-Azzi through diplomatic sources and figures in Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Sudan and Kenya to forge intelligence, security, political and logistical ties.

Training

The report said the Houthis were keen on establishing “sensitive intelligence centers” throughout the Horn of Africa and countries surrounding Yemen. They are working on training cadres “as soon as possible” so that they can be “effectively activated at the right time to achieve the Quranic mission and common interests of all resistance countries, especially Iran, Gaza and Lebanon.”

The report obtained documents that reveal how the Houthis have established ties with African figures to “complete preparations and operations in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa to support the Houthis should they come under any international political or diplomatic pressure.”

Leading officials

The report identified several Houthi figures who are overseeing these operations, starting with IRGC official “Abu Mahdi” to the owner of the smallest boat that is used for smuggling weapons in the Red Sea.

It also spoke of the relations forged with the al-Shabaab al-Qaeda affiliate in Somalia and the African mafia to smuggle Africans to Yemen in what the report described as one of the most dangerous human trafficking and organized crimes.

The PTOC report said the Houthis have recruited Africans from various countries, especially in wake of the militias’ coup in Sanaa in 2014. They have been subjected to cultural and military training and deployed at various fronts, such as Taiz, the west coast, Marib and the border.

Some of the recruits have returned to their home countries to expand the Houthi influence there.

Abu Ras and al-Kahlani

The report named Abdulwahed Naji Mohammed Abu Ras, or Abu Hussein, as the Houthis’ top official in expanding their influence in the Horn of Africa. A native of the Jawf province, he was tasked directly by top Iranian political officials and the IRGC in running this file.

Among his major tasks is coordinating with the IRGC and Houthis and directly overseeing the smuggling of IRGC and Hezbollah members from and to Yemen.

Abu Ras has avoided the spotlight for several years during which he has handled the Houthis’ most dangerous intelligence and political files.

He served as secretary of foreign affairs at the security and intelligence agency until Hassan al-Kahlani's appointment to that post. Abu Ras was then promoted to his current position at the recommendation of Houthi leader Abdulmalek al-Houthi and the IRGC leadership.

Al-Kahlani, also known as Abu Shaheed, was born in the Hajjah province in 1984. He is a known Houthi security operative as he grew up among the Houthis in Saada and Sanaa and joined the militias at a young age.

The report said al-Kahlani was part of the Sanaa terrorist cell that carried out several bombings and assassinations in wake of the killing of Houthi founder Hassan al-Houthi in 2004. He was also among the Houthi leaderships that took part in the coup in Sanaa.

Al-Kahlani now works directly under Abu Ras. He is known for his close ties to the IRGC and has been using this relationship to impose himself as the top official in the security and intelligence agency, exposing the struggle for power between him and the actual head of the agency Abdulhakim al-Khiwani.