Pressure Mounts on Israel for Longer Gaza Pause

 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits Gaza Strip, during a temporary truce between Hamas and Israel, in this handout obtained by Reuters on November 26, 2023.(Handout via Reuters)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits Gaza Strip, during a temporary truce between Hamas and Israel, in this handout obtained by Reuters on November 26, 2023.(Handout via Reuters)
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Pressure Mounts on Israel for Longer Gaza Pause

 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits Gaza Strip, during a temporary truce between Hamas and Israel, in this handout obtained by Reuters on November 26, 2023.(Handout via Reuters)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits Gaza Strip, during a temporary truce between Hamas and Israel, in this handout obtained by Reuters on November 26, 2023.(Handout via Reuters)

Israel faces mounting pressure to extend a four-day pause in its war against Hamas, but military officials fear that a longer truce risks blunting its efforts to rout the movement.

After hours of delay and acrimony that underscored the fragility of the truce, a second tranche of 13 Israeli hostages was freed on Saturday by Hamas in exchange for 39 Palestinian prisoners -- the same number as the previous day.

A total of 15 foreigners have also been released during the ceasefire -- mediated for weeks by Qatar, the United States and Egypt -- that marks the first breakthrough after seven weeks of relentless war.

Under the deal, 50 of the roughly 240 hostages held by the militants will be freed over four days in exchange for 150 Palestinian prisoners, with a built-in extension mechanism to prolong the process as long as at least 10 Israeli captives are released each day.

That increases the number of hostages returned -- and there is strong domestic pressure within Israel to do so -- but gives Hamas a longer window in which to regroup, recover, re-arm and ultimately return to the fight, analysts say.

It also increases diplomatic pressure on Israel from the international community, which will become steadily less willing to countenance a return to the pounding of Gaza and the resulting humanitarian crisis.

"Time works against Israel as always and against the IDF," said Andreas Krieg, of King's College London, referring to the Israeli military.

"On one hand you want all the hostages out knowing that you can't get them out militarily and on the other you don't want to lose completely the momentum of this war," he told AFP.

And the longer a truce lasted, he said, the more the international community would lose patience with a continuation of the war, he added.

But the Israeli military is determined to pursue its objective of "crushing" Hamas.

Visiting Israeli troops in the war-battered Gaza Strip on Saturday, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant insisted the timeline for the truce was "short".

"It won't take weeks, it will take days, more or less," he said, flanked by heavily armed soldiers. "Any further negotiations will take place under fire."

'Dilemma'

The war began after Palestinian militants smashed through the highly militarized border on October 7, killing about 1,200 people, mostly civilians, according to Israeli officials, and triggering Israel's invasion of Gaza.

Israel has defied international criticism of its Gaza offensive, which its Hamas rulers say has killed more than 15,000 people, mostly civilians, and left an unprecedented trail of destruction in the Palestinian territory.

"The real pressure (to prolong the truce) comes from inside Israel -- from the families of the hostages," said Arik Rudnitzky, from Tel Aviv University's Moshe Dayan Center.

On Saturday, tens of thousands of demonstrators packed the streets of Tel Aviv in support of the remaining hostages, chanting "Now, now, now, all of them now!" and clutching banners that read "Get them out of hell".

An Israeli military official said the country was committed to freeing as many hostages as possible but expressed concern that the longer the truce lasts the more time Hamas has to "rebuild its capabilities and attack Israel again".

"It's a terrible dilemma," he told AFP, requesting anonymity.

'You cannot win this'

The lead mediator in the negotiations for the pause in the fighting has been Qatar, whose foreign ministry spokesman Majed Al-Ansari told AFP there was a need to "maintain the momentum" for a lasting ceasefire.

"That can only be done when you have political will not only from the Israelis and Palestinians but also with the other partners who are working with us."

US President Joe Biden, a staunch ally of Israel, on Friday said "the chances are real" for extending the truce, as he urged a broader effort to achieve a two-state solution with a viable Palestinian state existing alongside Israel.

With a presidential election next year, there was no stomach in Washington for a prolonged intensive operation "for months and months on end", said Krieg of King's College London. "So the Biden administration needs to find an off ramp as well".

"There isn't a military solution to the conflict, you cannot win this," he added.

Senior Hamas official Taher al-Nunu said the group was "ready to search seriously to reach new deals".

But Hamas on Saturday delayed the handover of the second group of hostages for hours, accusing Israel of breaching the terms of the agreement -- claims denied by Israel.

Hamas would "play the long game with the hostages to try to exhaust the card over the longest possible length of time and at the greatest price to Israel," former Israeli intelligence official Avi Melamed told AFP.

It was hoping support within Israel for the Gaza Strip incursion would dissipate, and ultimately "international and internal pressures levied on Israel's government will create the circumstance where Hamas can continue to exist, and rule Gaza even after this war ends."

Independent Middle East analyst Eva Koulouriotis agreed.

"For Hamas, any scenario for this war that does not lead to an end to its presence in the Gaza Strip will be considered a victory," she told AFP. "Regardless of its human and material losses, of the extent of the destruction in Gaza, and of the extent of civilian casualties".



Harris Tries to Thread the Needle on Gaza After Meeting with Netanyahu 

US Vice President Kamala Harris meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on the White House grounds, in Washington, DC, US, July 25, 2024. (Reuters)
US Vice President Kamala Harris meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on the White House grounds, in Washington, DC, US, July 25, 2024. (Reuters)
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Harris Tries to Thread the Needle on Gaza After Meeting with Netanyahu 

US Vice President Kamala Harris meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on the White House grounds, in Washington, DC, US, July 25, 2024. (Reuters)
US Vice President Kamala Harris meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on the White House grounds, in Washington, DC, US, July 25, 2024. (Reuters)

Vice President Kamala Harris, the likely Democratic nominee for president, is attempting to bridge divides within the party over the war in Gaza, emphasizing Israel's right to defend itself while also focusing on alleviating Palestinian suffering.

She delivered remarks after meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday that reflected a delicate balancing act on one of the country's most divisive political issues. Some Democrats have been critical of President Joe Biden's steadfast support for Israel despite the increasing death toll among Palestinians, and Harris is trying to unite her party for the election battle with Republican candidate Donald Trump.

"We cannot look away in the face of these tragedies," she said. "We cannot allow ourselves to become numb to the suffering. And I will not be silent."

Harris did not deviate from the administration's approach to the conflict, including grueling negotiations aimed at ending the fighting, releasing hostages held by Hamas and eventually rebuilding Gaza. She also said nothing about military assistance for Israel, which some Democrats want to cut.

Instead, she tried to refocus the conversation around mitigating the calamity in Gaza, and she used language intended to nudge Americans toward an elusive middle ground.

"The war in Gaza is not a binary issue," she said. "But too often, the conversation is binary when the reality is anything but."

In addition, Harris made a more explicit appeal to voters who have been frustrated by the ceaseless bloodshed, which began when Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7.

"To everyone who has been calling for a ceasefire, and to everyone who yearns for peace, I see you, and I hear you," she said.

Harris' meeting with Netanyahu was private, and she described it as "frank and constructive." She also emphasized her longtime support for Israel, which includes raising money to plant trees in the country when she was a young girl.

Jewish Americans traditionally lean Democratic, but Republicans have tried to make inroads. Trump claimed this week that Harris "is totally against the Jewish people" because she didn't attend Netanyahu's address to a joint meeting of Congress. The vice president was traveling in Indiana during the speech.

Harris is married to a Jewish man, Doug Emhoff, who has played an outspoken role in the administration's efforts to combat antisemitism.

Netanyahu did not speak publicly after his meeting with Harris. His trip was scheduled before Biden dropped his reelection bid, but the meeting with Harris was watched closely for clues to her views on Israel.

"She is in a tricky situation and walking a tightrope where she’s still the vice president and the president really is the one who leads on the foreign policy agenda," said Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud, a Democrat whose city is home to one of the largest Arab American communities in the nation. "But as the candidate, the presumptive nominee, she has to now create the space to differentiate in order for her to chart a new course."

Protesters gathered outside Union Station on the day of Netanyahu's speech, ripping down American flags and spray painting "Hamas is coming."

Harris sharply criticized those actions, saying there were "despicable acts by unpatriotic protesters and dangerous hate-fueled rhetoric. "

"I support the right to peacefully protest, but let’s be clear: Antisemitism, hate and violence of any kind have no place in our nation," she said in a statement.

As vice president, Harris has tried to show little daylight between herself and Biden. But David Rothkopf, a foreign policy writer who has met with her, said there's been "a noticeable difference in tone, particularly in regards to concern for the plight of innocent Palestinians."

The difference was on display in Selma, Alabama, in March, when Harris commemorated the anniversary of the Bloody Sunday march for voting rights in 1965.

During her speech, Harris said that "given the immense scale of suffering in Gaza, there must be an immediate ceasefire."

The audience broke out in applause. A few sentences later, Harris emphasized that it was up to Hamas to accept the deal that had been offered. But her demand for a ceasefire still resonated in ways that Biden's comments had not.

An AP-NORC poll conducted in June found that about 6 in 10 Democrats disapproved of the way Biden is handling the conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Roughly the same number said Israel's military response in Gaza had gone too far.

Israeli analysts said they doubted that Harris would present a dramatic shift in policies toward their country.

Chuck Freilich, a former Israeli deputy national security adviser and senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv think tank, said Harris was from a generation of American politicians who felt they could both support Israel and publicly criticize its policies.

"The question is as president, what would she do?" Freilich said. "I think she would put considerably more pressure on Israel on the Palestinian issue overall."