Negotiators Zero in on Potential Deal to Disarm Syria’s Last Battleground

A member of Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) stands along a street after opposition fighters seized the capital and ousted Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Hasakah, Syria, December 11, 2024. (Reuters)
A member of Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) stands along a street after opposition fighters seized the capital and ousted Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Hasakah, Syria, December 11, 2024. (Reuters)
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Negotiators Zero in on Potential Deal to Disarm Syria’s Last Battleground

A member of Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) stands along a street after opposition fighters seized the capital and ousted Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Hasakah, Syria, December 11, 2024. (Reuters)
A member of Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) stands along a street after opposition fighters seized the capital and ousted Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Hasakah, Syria, December 11, 2024. (Reuters)

Negotiators are zeroing in on a potential deal to resolve one of the most explosive questions looming over Syria's future: the fate of Kurdish forces that the US considers key allies against ISIS but neighboring Türkiye regards as a national security threat.

Diplomatic and military negotiators from the United States, Türkiye, Syria and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are showing more flexibility and patience than their public statements suggest, a dozen sources told Reuters, including five directly involved in the intensive web of discussions in recent weeks.

This could set the stage for an accord in the coming months that would see some Kurdish fighters leave Syria's restive northeast and others brought under the authority of the new defense ministry, six of the sources said.

However, many thorny issues need to be resolved, they said. These include how to integrate the SDF alliance's well-armed and trained fighters into Syria's security framework and administer territory under their control, which includes key oil and wheat fields.

In an interview with Saudi Arabia's Asharq News channel on Tuesday, SDF commander Mazloum Abdi said the alliance's "basic demand" is for decentralized administration - a potential challenge to Syria's new leadership, which wants to bring all of the country back under the government's authority after ousting Bashar al-Assad last month.

Abdi indicated that the SDF has no intention of dissolving, saying it was open to linking with the defense ministry and operating according to its rules, but as "a military bloc".

Syria's new defense minister, Murhaf Abu Qasra, rejected that approach in an interview with Reuters on Sunday, saying the suggestion that the SDF remain one bloc "is not right."

The former opposition fighters now in power in Damascus have said they want all armed groups to integrate into Syria's official forces, under a unified command. The SDF, when asked for comment, referred Reuters to its commander's interview.

How much autonomy Kurdish factions retain likely hinges on whether incoming US president Donald Trump continues Washington's longtime support of its Kurdish allies, according to diplomats and officials on all sides.

Trump has not spoken publicly about his intentions, including his plans for some 2,000 US troops stationed in Syria. A Trump representative did not comment.

Any deal also depends on whether Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan holds off on a threatened military offensive against the People's Protection Units (YPG), the Kurdish group that spearheads the SDF alliance.

Ankara views them as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has been waging an insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984 and is deemed a terrorist group by both Türkiye and the US.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said this month that Syria's new authorities "should be given an opportunity to ... end the occupation and terror the YPG created", but he did not say how long Ankara would wait for it to disarm before launching an incursion.

A Turkish Foreign Ministry source said disarming armed groups and the departure of "foreign terrorist fighters" were essential for Syria's stability and territorial integrity, so the sooner this happens the better.

"We are voicing this expectation of ours in the strongest terms during our contacts with both the United States and the new administration in Damascus," the source said.

INTENSIVE TALKS

US and Turkish officials have been holding "very intensive" discussions since fighters led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, launched a lightning offensive from their northwestern stronghold that deposed Assad on Dec. 8, a senior US diplomat told Reuters.

The two countries share a "common view of where things should end up", including a belief that all foreign fighters should exit Syrian territory, the diplomat said, noting Turkish negotiators "have a very high sense of urgency" to settle things.

However, the diplomat, who like some other sources requested anonymity to discuss sensitive negotiations, said the talks were "hugely complex" and would take time.

Parallel talks are taking place between the US and both the SDF and HTS, Türkiye and HTS, and the SDF and HTS, officials from all sides say.

Part of a stateless ethnic group straddling Iraq, Iran, Türkiye, Armenia and Syria, Kurds had been among the few winners of the Syrian conflict, gaining control over Arab-majority areas as the US partnered with them in the campaign against ISIS. They now hold nearly a quarter of the country.

But Assad's fall has left Syrian Kurdish factions on the back foot, with Türkiye-backed armed groups gaining ground in the northeast and the country's new rulers in Damascus friendly with Ankara.

Türkiye, which provided direct support to some opposition groups against Assad, has emerged as one of the most influential power brokers in Syria since his fall. Like the US, it has designated HTS a terrorist group because of its al-Qaeda past, but Ankara is believed to have significant sway over the group.

Officials on all sides worry that failure to reach a ceasefire and longer-term political accord in the northeast could destabilize Syria as it seeks to recover from a 13-year civil war that killed hundreds of thousands, displaced millions and drew in countries including Russia, Iran and Israel.

Dozens of people in northern Syria have been reported killed since December in clashes between the Kurdish-led SDF and Türkiye’s allies, and in cross-border Turkish airstrikes.

Failure to resolve the fate of Kurdish factions in Syria could also undermine nascent efforts to end the PKK's insurgency in Türkiye.

The United Nations has warned of "dramatic consequences" for Syria and the region if a political solution is not found in the northeast.

POTENTIAL TRADE-OFFS

US support for the SDF has been a source of tension with its NATO ally, Türkiye.

Washington views the SDF as a key partner in countering ISIS, which Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned will try to use this period to re-establish capabilities in Syria. The SDF is still guarding tens of thousands of detainees linked to the group.

Erdogan said on Wednesday that Türkiye has the power to "crush" all terrorists in Syria, including ISIS and Kurdish militants.

Türkiye wants the management of camps and prisons where ISIS detainees are being held transferred to Syria's new rulers and has offered to help them. It has also demanded that the SDF expel all foreign fighters and senior PKK members from its territory and disarm the remaining members in a way it can verify.

Abdi, the SDF commander, has shown flexibility regarding some Turkish demands, telling Reuters last month that its foreign fighters, including PKK members, would leave Syria if Türkiye agrees to a ceasefire.

The PKK said in a statement to Reuters on Thursday that it would agree to leave if the SDF maintains control of the northeast or a significant role in joint leadership.

Such assurances are unlikely to satisfy Ankara at a time when the SDF is "trying to stay alive and autonomous" in Syria, Omer Onhon, Türkiye’s last ambassador to Damascus, told Reuters.

In Ankara on Wednesday, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shibani said the extensive US-backed SDF presence was no longer justified, and the new administration would not allow Syrian land to be a source of threats to Türkiye. Standing next to him, his Turkish counterpart, Fidan, said it was time to put anti-terror pledges into practice.

Abdi told Asharq News that he has met with Syria's de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and the two sides agreed to set up a joint military committee to decide how the SDF would integrate with the defense ministry. He described the meeting with Sharaa, who heads HTS, as positive.

Abu Qasra, the defense minister, accused SDF leaders on Sunday of "procrastinating" on the issue, saying "consolidation of all areas under the new administration ... is a right of the Syrian state."

The new leadership believes that allowing SDF fighters to continue operating as a bloc would "risk destabilization, including a coup", a ministry official told Reuters.

Abdi argued that a decentralized administration would not threaten Syria's unity, saying the SDF is not demanding the kind of federalism introduced in Iraq, where Kurds have their own regional government.

Some Syrian officials and diplomats say the SDF will likely need to relinquish control of significant territory and oil revenues, gained during the war, as part of any political settlement.

In return, Kurdish factions could be granted protections for their language and culture within a decentralized political structure, said Bassam al-Kuwatli, president of the small Syrian Liberal Party, which supports minority rights but is not involved in the talks.

A senior Syrian Kurdish source acknowledged that some such trade-offs would likely be needed but did not elaborate.

Abdi told Asharq News that the SDF was open to handing over responsibility for oil resources to the new administration, provided the wealth was distributed fairly to all provinces.

Washington has called for a "managed transition" of the SDF's role.

The US diplomat said Assad's ouster opens the door for Washington to eventually consider withdrawing its troops from Syria, though much depends on whether trusted forces like its Kurdish allies remain engaged in efforts to counter any ISIS resurgence.

Trump's return to the White House on Monday has raised hopes in Türkiye of a favorable deal, given the rapport he established with Erdogan during his first term.

Trump has spoken approvingly about Erdogan's role in Syria, calling him a "very smart guy", and said Türkiye would "hold the key" to what happens there.

"The Americans won't abandon (the SDF)," said Onhon, Türkiye’s former ambassador. "But the arrival of someone as unpredictable as Trump must worry them in a way too."



Iran Loosens Import Restrictions on Foreign Cars, iPhones to Mask its Economic Woes

Visitors gather around a car on display at the 6th International Tehran Auto Show and related industries, just outside Tehran, Iran, Thursday, Jan. 30, 2025. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Visitors gather around a car on display at the 6th International Tehran Auto Show and related industries, just outside Tehran, Iran, Thursday, Jan. 30, 2025. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
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Iran Loosens Import Restrictions on Foreign Cars, iPhones to Mask its Economic Woes

Visitors gather around a car on display at the 6th International Tehran Auto Show and related industries, just outside Tehran, Iran, Thursday, Jan. 30, 2025. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Visitors gather around a car on display at the 6th International Tehran Auto Show and related industries, just outside Tehran, Iran, Thursday, Jan. 30, 2025. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

All architecture student Amirhossein Azizi wanted for his 19th birthday was the latest iPhone — and for Iran's cash-strapped theocracy, it was just the gift they needed as well.

Just buying a top-of-the-line iPhone 16 Pro Max in Iran's capital cost him on the day 1.6 billion rials ($1,880). An additional 450 million rials ($530) is required for import fees and registration on government-managed mobile phone networks.

“I’m very happy to own one of the most expensive phones in the country," Azizi said. His father, Mohammad, laughed nearby and added: “Maybe if they had to earn the money themselves, they wouldn’t be so quick to spend it.”

The purchase is only possible after Iran lifted import bans on expensive goods like foreign cars and new iPhones, yielding to public demand for the products while also trying to mask the dire straits of its economy, The AP reported.

While being described as a way to boost Iran's much-vaunted “resistance economy," the decisions trapped Iranians into buying more affordable locally produced vehicles long derided as “death wagons” and boosted the prices of aging, second-hand iPhones.

They also provide Iran with much-needed tax revenues as its government struggles under international sanctions over its nuclear program. Uncertainty over how US President Donald Trump will deal with Iran also has put pressure on its rial currency, which sits at record lows against the dollar.

Powerful forces within Iran long have been believed to be taking advantage of the sanctions, while those benefiting may just be among the country's most well-off citizens.

"It’s more about perception than reality,” Iranian economist Saeed Leilaz said.

‘Resistance’ economics at play Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, now 85, first proposed the idea nearly 15 years ago as Tehran faced its first round of intense sanctions over its nuclear program, which the West fears puts Iran at the precipice of obtaining an atomic bomb. Iran maintains its program is peaceful — even as it enriches uranium closer than ever to weapons-grade levels.

“Sanctions are not new for us," Khamenei said in a 2010 speech. "All achievements have been made and all the great movements of the people of Iran have been launched while we were under sanctions.”

In some ways, it's worked for Iran's ruling clerics since Trump unilaterally reimposed sanctions on Tehran after withdrawing America from the 2015 nuclear deal. Iran struck deals with China to continuing buying its crude oil, likely at a discount.

Those in Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, which has grown into a major power center under Khamenei, handle the sales — both funding their operations against Israel during the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip and creating a new wealthy elite loyal to Khamenei.

But for the average person, there's clearly a before and an after for the life under the nuclear deal, which saw Iran agree to drastically limit its enrichment and overall stockpile of uranium.

At the time of the deal, the Iranian rial traded at 32,000 to $1. Now, a decade later, $1 was worth 885,000 rials on Tuesday.

The public's savings have evaporated, pushing average Iranians into holding onto gold, real estate and other tangible wealth. Others pursue cryptocurrencies or fall to get-rich schemes.

Iran lifts car and iPhone import restrictions, seeking cash Iran banned the import of foreign cars in 2017, while not allowing iPhones newer than the 13 to be registered on the country’s mobile phone networks. The phone decision set off a scramble for older iPhones, boosting their price, while used car prices for foreign models remain high as well.

In the last Persian year ending in March 2024, Iran imported $3.2 billion worth of mobile phones, customs data shows. The cut for high-end iPhones makes them a lucrative option to plug some of the gaping holes in Iran's government spending — though Iran's foreign currency reserves remain low due to sanctions.

“Lifting restrictions on a few platforms or allowing iPhone imports are the kinds of steps the government can take quickly and with minimal cost to create a sense of progress,” said Leilaz, the economist.

Such decisions also provide a quick win for Iran's reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian with Iran's elite — though it doesn't address any of the longer-term economic problems.

For cars, former President Hassan Rouhani banned imports of fully built foreign vehicles in 2018, after Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the nuclear deal. While in theory protecting Iranian foreign reserves, it also backed up local automobile manufacturers, whose products have long been criticized for not meeting international safety and quality standards — hence their “death wagon” monikers.

Experts believe if Iran's government allowed more lower-priced, higher-quality imports, the country's automobile manufacturers would lose their edge. Restrictions still limit the number of foreign cars that can come into the country and tariffs that Pezeshkian wants lowered may have been again placed at 100%.

“Since the number of newly imported cars is still limited, only a few people can afford them," said Saber, a car dealer in Tehran who spoke on condition only his first name be used to be able to discuss the issue frankly. "As a result, imported cars have skyrocketed in price on the open market.”

What Trump does carries serious consequences for Iran As Iran's economy worsens, its theocracy worries conditions could again push the public back onto the streets in nationwide protests. That's why officials up to Khamenei have backed the idea of talking again to the West.

While Trump has suggested he wants talks, he signed an executive order Feb. 4 calling for putting “Iran’s export of oil to zero,” including to China, which buys Tehran’s crude at a discount. It also seeks a “snapback” of United Nations sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program. If implemented, they could decimate Iran at a time where its people are looking for any sign of optimism.

That includes a car show in Tehran in late January that featured foreign brands like Mazda, Nissan and Toyota, all sought after by Iranians. However, even with the change, Iran's economy still must exist in a world where the US dollar reigns supreme and its rial continues to fall.

“This biggest problem in this country is that everything depends on the dollar," said Saeed Maleki, standing among the vehicles at the show. "Today they tell you a car costs 3 billion rials. But after a week or a month will they still sell this for 3 billion? No! They will charge me with the new rates.”