Oil Falls as Iran Affirms Commitment to Nuclear Treaty

A view of the Chevron oil refinery in Richmond, California, USA, 27 June 2025. EPA/JOHN G. MABANGLO
A view of the Chevron oil refinery in Richmond, California, USA, 27 June 2025. EPA/JOHN G. MABANGLO
TT

Oil Falls as Iran Affirms Commitment to Nuclear Treaty

A view of the Chevron oil refinery in Richmond, California, USA, 27 June 2025. EPA/JOHN G. MABANGLO
A view of the Chevron oil refinery in Richmond, California, USA, 27 June 2025. EPA/JOHN G. MABANGLO

Oil futures fell on Friday after Iran reaffirmed its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation and amid expectations that major producers are set to agree to raise their output this weekend.

Brent crude futures were down 22 cents, or 0.32%, to $68.58 a barrel by 0445 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 12 cents, or 0.18%, to $66.88.

Trade was thinned by the US Independence Day holiday.

US news website Axios reported on Thursday that the US was planning to meet with Iran next week to restart nuclear talk, while Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran remains committed to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

"Thursday's news that the US is preparing to resume nuclear talks with Iran, and Araghchi’s clarification that cooperation with the UN atomic agency has not been halted considerably eases the threat of a fresh outbreak of hostilities," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

Araghchi's comments came a day after Tehran enacted a law suspending cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.

"But the price correction may have to wait till Monday, when the US reopens from a long weekend and takes in Sunday's OPEC+ decision, which is likely to be another 411,000 barrels per day target hike in August," Hari said.

OPEC+, the world's largest group of oil producers, is set to announce an increase of 411,000 bpd in production for August as it looks to regain market share, four delegates from the group told Reuters.

Meanwhile, uncertainty over US tariff policies was renewed as the end of a 90-day pause on higher levy rates approaches.

Washington will start sending letters to countries on Friday specifying what tariff rates they will face on goods sent to the United States, a clear shift from earlier pledges to strike scores of individual trade deals.

President Donald Trump told reporters before departing for Iowa on Thursday that the letters would be sent to 10 countries at a time, laying out tariff rates of 20% to 30%.

Trump's 90-day pause on higher US tariffs ends on July 9, and several large trading partners have yet to clinch trade deals, including the European Union and Japan.

The US imposed sanctions on Thursday against a network that smuggles Iranian oil disguised as Iraqi oil and on a Hezbollah-controlled financial institution, the Treasury Department said.

Trump also said on Thursday that he would meet with representatives of Iran "if necessary".

Separately, Barclays said it raised its Brent oil price forecast by $6 to $72 per barrel for 2025 and by $10 to $70 a barrel for 2026 on an improved outlook for demand.



Trump Announces 30% Tariffs Against EU, Mexico to begin August 1

President Donald J. Trump speaks at a roundtable discussion at the Community Emergency Operations Center in Kerrville, Texas, Friday, July 11, 2025. (Ricardo B. Brazziell/Austin American-Statesman via AP)
President Donald J. Trump speaks at a roundtable discussion at the Community Emergency Operations Center in Kerrville, Texas, Friday, July 11, 2025. (Ricardo B. Brazziell/Austin American-Statesman via AP)
TT

Trump Announces 30% Tariffs Against EU, Mexico to begin August 1

President Donald J. Trump speaks at a roundtable discussion at the Community Emergency Operations Center in Kerrville, Texas, Friday, July 11, 2025. (Ricardo B. Brazziell/Austin American-Statesman via AP)
President Donald J. Trump speaks at a roundtable discussion at the Community Emergency Operations Center in Kerrville, Texas, Friday, July 11, 2025. (Ricardo B. Brazziell/Austin American-Statesman via AP)

President Donald Trump on Saturday announced he's levying tariffs of 30% against the European Union and Mexico.

Trump announced the tariffs on two of the United States' biggest trade partners in letters posted to his social media account.

In his letter to Mexico's leader, Trump acknowledged that the country has been helpful in stemming the flow of undocumented migrants and fentanyl into the United States. But he said the country has not done enough to stop North America from turning into a “Narco-Trafficking Playground.”

“Mexico has been helping me secure the border, BUT, what Mexico has done, is not enough,” Trump added, The AP news reported.

Trump in his letter to the European Union said that the US trade deficit was a national security threat.

“We have had years to discuss our Trading Relationship with The European Union, and we have concluded we must move away from these long-term, large, and persistent, Trade Deficits, engendered by your Tariff, and Non-Tariff, Policies, and Trade Barriers,” Trump wrote in the letter to the EU. “Our relationship has been, unfortunately, far from Reciprocal.”

Trump is in the midst of an announcement blitz of new tariffs with allies and foes alike, a bedrock of his 2024 campaign that he said would set the foundation for reviving a US economy that he claims has been ripped off by other nations for decades.

With the reciprocal tariffs, Trump is effectively blowing up the rules governing world trade. For decades, the United States and most other countries abided by tariff rates set through a series of complex negotiations known as the Uruguay round. Countries could set their own tariffs – but under the “most favored nation’’ approach, they couldn’t charge one country more than they charged another.

With Saturday's letters, Trump has now issued tariff conditions on 24 countries and the 27-member European Union.

The European Union’s chief trade negotiator said earlier this week that a trade deal to avert higher tariffs on European goods imported to the US could be reached “even in the coming days.” Maroš Šefčovič told EU lawmakers in Strasbourg, France on Wednesday that the EU had been spared the increased tariffs contained in the letters Trump sent on Monday, and that an extension of talks would provide “additional space to reach a satisfactory conclusion.”

The bloc collectively sells more to the US than any other country. US goods imports from the EU topped $553 billion in 2022, according to the Office of the US Trade Representative.

Trump on April 2 proposed a 20% tariff for EU goods and then threatened to raise that to 50% after negotiations did not move as fast as he would have liked. Sefcovic did not mention any tariff figures.

The higher tariffs as well as any EU retaliation had been suspended as the two sides negotiate. However the base rate of 10% for most trade partners as well as higher rates of 25% on autos and 50% on steel and aluminum had gone into effect.

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a former Congressional Budget Office director and president of the center-right American Action Forum, said the letters were evidence that serious trade talks were not taking place over the past three months. He stressed that nations were instead talking amongst themselves about how to minimize their own exposure to the US economy and Trump.

“They’re spending time talking to each other about what the future is going to look like, and we’re left out,” Holtz-Eakin said.

He added that Trump was using the letters to demand attention, but, “In the end, these are letters to other countries about taxes he’s going to levy on his citizens.”