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Oil Falls as Iran Affirms Commitment to Nuclear Treaty

A view of the Chevron oil refinery in Richmond, California, USA, 27 June 2025. EPA/JOHN G. MABANGLO
A view of the Chevron oil refinery in Richmond, California, USA, 27 June 2025. EPA/JOHN G. MABANGLO
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Oil Falls as Iran Affirms Commitment to Nuclear Treaty

A view of the Chevron oil refinery in Richmond, California, USA, 27 June 2025. EPA/JOHN G. MABANGLO
A view of the Chevron oil refinery in Richmond, California, USA, 27 June 2025. EPA/JOHN G. MABANGLO

Oil futures fell on Friday after Iran reaffirmed its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation and amid expectations that major producers are set to agree to raise their output this weekend.

Brent crude futures were down 22 cents, or 0.32%, to $68.58 a barrel by 0445 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 12 cents, or 0.18%, to $66.88.

Trade was thinned by the US Independence Day holiday.

US news website Axios reported on Thursday that the US was planning to meet with Iran next week to restart nuclear talk, while Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran remains committed to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

"Thursday's news that the US is preparing to resume nuclear talks with Iran, and Araghchi’s clarification that cooperation with the UN atomic agency has not been halted considerably eases the threat of a fresh outbreak of hostilities," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

Araghchi's comments came a day after Tehran enacted a law suspending cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.

"But the price correction may have to wait till Monday, when the US reopens from a long weekend and takes in Sunday's OPEC+ decision, which is likely to be another 411,000 barrels per day target hike in August," Hari said.

OPEC+, the world's largest group of oil producers, is set to announce an increase of 411,000 bpd in production for August as it looks to regain market share, four delegates from the group told Reuters.

Meanwhile, uncertainty over US tariff policies was renewed as the end of a 90-day pause on higher levy rates approaches.

Washington will start sending letters to countries on Friday specifying what tariff rates they will face on goods sent to the United States, a clear shift from earlier pledges to strike scores of individual trade deals.

President Donald Trump told reporters before departing for Iowa on Thursday that the letters would be sent to 10 countries at a time, laying out tariff rates of 20% to 30%.

Trump's 90-day pause on higher US tariffs ends on July 9, and several large trading partners have yet to clinch trade deals, including the European Union and Japan.

The US imposed sanctions on Thursday against a network that smuggles Iranian oil disguised as Iraqi oil and on a Hezbollah-controlled financial institution, the Treasury Department said.

Trump also said on Thursday that he would meet with representatives of Iran "if necessary".

Separately, Barclays said it raised its Brent oil price forecast by $6 to $72 per barrel for 2025 and by $10 to $70 a barrel for 2026 on an improved outlook for demand.

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Gold Lingers Near 7-month Low as Fed Hike Bets Boost Dollar

A worker displays gold bullion bar at the ABC Refinery in Sydney - AFP
A worker displays gold bullion bar at the ABC Refinery in Sydney - AFP
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Gold Lingers Near 7-month Low as Fed Hike Bets Boost Dollar

A worker displays gold bullion bar at the ABC Refinery in Sydney - AFP
A worker displays gold bullion bar at the ABC Refinery in Sydney - AFP

Gold fell for a third straight session on Thursday, lingering near a more than seven-month low it had reached in the previous session, as expectations of US rate hikes lifted the dollar and weighed on the precious metal.

Spot gold fell 0.5% to $3,982.49 an ounce by 1054 GMT. US gold futures for August delivery edged 0.3% lower to $3,997.60 per oz.

The US dollar hit its strongest level in more than 13 months on Thursday, making greenback priced-metals more expensive for other currency holders. Markets currently see a 66% chance that the US Federal Reserve will hike rates in September, CME FedWatch data showed, Reuters reported.

"The Fed's hawkish shift, which has led to a repricing of rate hike expectations, remains the dominant driver of gold's weakness," said Nikos Tzabouras, senior market analyst at Jefferies-owned Tradu.com. ETF outflows and the rotation into equities driven by the AI boom are definitely factors weighing on the precious metal, said Tzabouras, noting that these forces tend to be cyclical and do not subtract from the broader structural case for gold.

Bullion has declined more than 6% since Fed's meeting last week and dipped below the $4,000 level on Wednesday for the first time since November 2025. Prices were down over 28% from its record high of $5,594.82 reached on January 29.

Investors now await the US Personal Consumption Expenditures data, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, due at 1230 GMT, forI further cues on monetary policy.

Business

Oil Falls to Pre-war Levels on Rising Middle East Supply

A drilling rig operates near a crude oil reserve in the Permian Basin oil field in Texas, USA (Reuters)
A drilling rig operates near a crude oil reserve in the Permian Basin oil field in Texas, USA (Reuters)
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Oil Falls to Pre-war Levels on Rising Middle East Supply

A drilling rig operates near a crude oil reserve in the Permian Basin oil field in Texas, USA (Reuters)
A drilling rig operates near a crude oil reserve in the Permian Basin oil field in Texas, USA (Reuters)

Oil prices fell on Thursday to levels last seen before the start of the Iran war as expectations of rising supply from the Middle East outweighed demand concerns.

Prompt-month Brent crude futures for August delivery were down 51 cents, or 0.7%, to $73.23 a barrel by 1201 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate lost 53 cents, or 0.8%, to $69.81 a barrel.

Both contracts hit their lowest since February 27, Reuters reported.

August Brent was trading lower than September, which was priced at $73.50, signalling ample short-term supply.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told a forum that flows through the Strait of Hormuz were close to those before the start of the Iran war, with at least 20 million barrels having exited the strait in the last 24 hours.

A return to complete normalcy would take a few weeks, however, because the strait needs to be demined, he added.

"Most of the increase in flows from the Gulf is outbound —ships exiting the Strait," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

However, a significant increase in inbound flows requires shipping confidence to return, including safety assurances and mine clearance to allow insurance premiums to normalise, Staunovo said.

Rising Middle Eastern supply, together with Iran set to boost sales after a temporary reprieve from US sanctions, drove down prices of physical crude oil cargoes around the world.

Goldman Sachs said it does not expect a large pick-up in Iranian production, even if sanctions relief extends beyond the August 21 expiry.

On the demand side, China is likely to remain the main buyer of Iranian crude, as EU and UK sanctions on Iranian oil and vessels remain in place, the bank added.

An accord agreed last week to end the US-Israeli war, which began on February 28, has allowed the resumption of traffic through the strait.

It set up a 60-day period of negotiations to tackle tougher issues, such as Iran's nuclear program. Wright said oil would continue to flow through the strait even if the deal did not hold, and that Iran would not be able to close it again.

UBS lowered its Brent price forecasts to $85 per barrel for end-September and end-December, and $80 per barrel for end-March and end-June 2027.

Business

EU-US Trade Deal to Take Effect Before Trump Deadline

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen chairs the EU Commission's weekly College meeting in Brussels, Belgium, 24 June 2026. EPA/OLIVIER MATTHYS
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen chairs the EU Commission's weekly College meeting in Brussels, Belgium, 24 June 2026. EPA/OLIVIER MATTHYS
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EU-US Trade Deal to Take Effect Before Trump Deadline

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen chairs the EU Commission's weekly College meeting in Brussels, Belgium, 24 June 2026. EPA/OLIVIER MATTHYS
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen chairs the EU Commission's weekly College meeting in Brussels, Belgium, 24 June 2026. EPA/OLIVIER MATTHYS

EU states gave their final approval Thursday to a year-old tariff deal with the United States, allowing it to enter into force ahead of a July 4 deadline set by President Donald Trump.

Struck between Trump and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen in July 2025, the deal sets levies of 15 percent on most of EU exports to the United States, and zero tariffs for US industrial goods coming into the 27-nation bloc.

But the EU had yet to fulfil its side of the accord -- after Trump's threats to Greenland and a US Supreme Court decision striking down many of his tariffs fueled months of delay.

The sign-off by member states -- who had already agreed the deal in substance -- clears the final legislative hurdle on the EU side, following parliament's approval earlier this month.

The deal's approval "confirms the EU's commitment to a stable, predictable and mutually beneficial transatlantic trade relationship, while preserving the necessary guardrails to protect European economic interests," AFP quoted an EU statement as saying.

Lawmakers added a series of safeguards, including giving the European Commission power to suspend the pact if the US side fails to meet its commitments or acts to disrupt trade and investment.

Parliament also introduced an expiration date of end-2029, unless the agreement is renewed by then.

"Openness must go hand in hand with safeguarding our interests," said Michael Damianos, the commerce minister for Cyprus which holds the EU's rotating presidency.

"These measures achieve both, supporting stable and predictable trade flows with the US while ensuring the EU can respond swiftly and proportionately when the deal is not respected or its interests are at stake," he said.

The two texts enacting the EU side of the accord -- removing duties on US industrial goods and introducing preferential access for certain seafood and farm products -- will formally take effect a day after publication in the EU's official journal.