Disease Stalks Somali District Ravaged by Floods

This aerial view shows a general view of the Ladan IDP Camp in the outskirts of Dolow on November 25, 2023, where hundreds of families are temporarily living after being displaced by devastating floods. (AFP)
This aerial view shows a general view of the Ladan IDP Camp in the outskirts of Dolow on November 25, 2023, where hundreds of families are temporarily living after being displaced by devastating floods. (AFP)
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Disease Stalks Somali District Ravaged by Floods

This aerial view shows a general view of the Ladan IDP Camp in the outskirts of Dolow on November 25, 2023, where hundreds of families are temporarily living after being displaced by devastating floods. (AFP)
This aerial view shows a general view of the Ladan IDP Camp in the outskirts of Dolow on November 25, 2023, where hundreds of families are temporarily living after being displaced by devastating floods. (AFP)

The floodwaters in the southwestern Somali district of Dolow may have started to recede -- for now -- but distraught families who have lost their homes, their livelihoods in the muddy deluge are now at risk of potentially fatal disease.

Shukri Abdi Osman, a 34-year-old mother of three, is sheltering in a camp for the displaced in Dolow with her children, among around 700 families forced to flee as flash floods engulfed many parts of town.

"I have never seen such devastating floods before, everything happened quickly. When we realized the water was coming it was too late to collect all our belongings. We left our houses at midnight and all we were able to grab was our children," she told AFP.

As the family breadwinner, Osman said she thought she had a bright future, with plans to expand her flourishing fruit and vegetable kiosk in the Garbolow neighborhood of Dolow, which lies on the Juba River near the Ethiopia border.

"But I ended up here in this IDP settlement hopelessly waiting for the situation to change. My business is gone, my property is destroyed, and my house engulfed in water," she said, as she struggled to light firewood to cook a meal for her children.

'Leaking septic tanks'

And now disease is posing a threat to her family.

"The toilets were destroyed and even the tap water is now mixed with the dirty flood water which includes leaking septic tanks," she said.

"The situation is very tough now in this camp with my daughter feeling unwell, she might have already contracted malaria and typhoid."

Somalia's government has declared a state of emergency over what the United Nations has called "once-in-a-century" flooding, with almost 100 lives lost across the country and 700,000 people made homeless.

Torrential rains linked to the El Nino weather phenomenon have lashed the Horn of Africa on the heels of the worst drought in 40 years that drove millions to the brink of famine in Somalia.

It is considered one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, locked in a vicious cycle of drought and floods.

But is particularly ill-equipped to cope with the crisis as it battles deep poverty and a deadly extremist insurgency.

In one of the worst El Nino episodes, in late 1997 and early 1998, at least 1,800 people died in Somalia alone when the Juba River burst its banks.

The latest floods have washed away homes, schools, farmland, roads and bridges, leaving many without shelter, food or clean drinking water.

'Children covered in mosquito bites'

Mohamed Dahir, water and sanitation officer with US charity Mercy Corps, told AFP that humanitarian agencies are now concerned about those vulnerable to disease.

"The possibility for malaria outbreak is high due to the mosquitos, and there are also concerns about watery diarrhea breaking out due to the possible contamination of the water system."

"We still don't know exactly the level of contamination but what we have seen is the leaked septic tanks and destroyed toilets of the affected neighborhood which contaminate the water wells."

The UN humanitarian agency OCHA said in an update last week that 33 districts of Somalia had been deluged, with a significant increase in cases of Acute Watery Diarrhea (AWD) or cholera and a rise in malaria cases.

It said there were concerns that contaminated stagnant water around schools poses a "serious risk" of waterborne diseases for school children.

Sadia Sharif Hassan, a 40-year-old mother of seven, sits in a makeshift shelter in a Dolow IDP camp, begging her neighbor for a container so she can fetch water.

"The most important thing is to save the lives of our children," she told AFP, saying the family barely had enough food to eat each day.

"The mosquitos are relentless and several of my children are already feeling unwell, they are suffering from fever... all their bodies are covered with bites now."

'Ran away with our lives'

In Garboolow, 70-year-old Owliyo Mohamed Abdirahman almost slipped and fell in the mud as she tried to rescue belongings from her damaged corrugated metal home but found everything had been swept away.

"This is what is left of my house in which I lived with my son who is sick now, his children and his wife," she said in despair. "We ran away with our lives and carried nothing else."

She and her family are having to rely on the kindness of well-wishers who have provided food and clothing.

Somalia has been locked in an endless cycle of drought and floods.

In one of the worst El Nino episodes, in late 1997 and early 1998, at least 1,800 people died when the Juba River burst its banks.

Garboolow commissioner Mursal Mohamed Adan said the authorities are waiting anxiously for help from aid agencies.

"God knows better what is next, but we are still concerned if rains continue to cause more flooding it will only make the situation worse."



Iran’s Rulers Caught Between Trump’s Crackdown and a Fragile Economy 

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with Iranian students in Tehran, Iran, March 12, 2025. Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via Reuters
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with Iranian students in Tehran, Iran, March 12, 2025. Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via Reuters
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Iran’s Rulers Caught Between Trump’s Crackdown and a Fragile Economy 

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with Iranian students in Tehran, Iran, March 12, 2025. Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via Reuters
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with Iranian students in Tehran, Iran, March 12, 2025. Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via Reuters

For Iran's clerical leaders, engaging with the "Great Satan" to hammer out a nuclear deal and ease crippling sanctions may for once be the lesser of two evils.

Though it harbors deep mistrust of the United States, and President Donald Trump in particular, Tehran is increasingly concerned that mounting public anger over economic hardships could erupt into mass protests, four Iranian officials said.

That's why, despite the unyielding stance and defiant rhetoric of Iran's clerical leaders in public, there is a pragmatic willingness within Tehran's corridors of power to strike a deal with Washington, the people said.

Tehran's concerns were exacerbated by Trump's speedy revival of his first term's "maximum pressure" campaign to drive Iran's oil exports towards zero with more sanctions and bring the country's already fragile economy to its knees, they said.

President Masoud Pezeshkian has repeatedly highlighted the severity of the economic situation in the country, stating that it is more challenging than during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, and pointing this month to the latest round of US sanctions targeting tankers carrying Iranian oil.

One of the Iranian officials said leaders were concerned that cutting off all diplomatic avenues might further fuel domestic discontent against Ali Khamenei - given he is the ultimate decision maker in the country.

"There is no question whatsoever that the man who has been the Supreme Leader since 1989 and his foreign policy preferences are more guilty than anybody else for the state of affairs," said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute think-tank in Washington.

It was Iran's weak economy that pushed Khamenei to give tentative backing to the nuclear agreement struck with major powers in 2015, leading to a lifting of Western sanctions and an improvement in economic conditions. But then-President Trump's renewed onslaught against Iran after he pulled out of the nuclear pact in 2018 squeezed living standards once more.

"The situation worsens daily. I can't afford my rent, pay my bills, or buy clothes for my children," said Alireza Yousefi, 42, a teacher from Isfahan. "Now, more sanctions will make survival impossible."

Iran's foreign ministry did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.

'ON EQUAL TERMS'

At the same time as upping the pressure on Iran with new sanctions and threats of military action, Trump also opened the door to negotiations by sending a letter to Khamenei proposing nuclear talks.

Khamenei spurned the offer on Wednesday, saying repeatedly that Washington was imposing excessive demands and that Tehran would not be bullied into negotiations.

"If we enter negotiations while the other side is imposing maximum pressure, we will be negotiating from a weak position and will achieve nothing," Iran's top diplomat Abbas Araqchi told the Iran newspaper in an interview published on Thursday.

"The other side must be convinced that the policy of pressure is ineffective - only then can we sit at the negotiating table on equal terms," he said.

One senior Iranian official said there was no alternative but to reach an agreement, and that it was possible, though the road ahead would be bumpy given Iran's distrust of Trump after he abandoned the 2015 deal.

Iran has staved off economic collapse largely thanks to China, the main buyer of its oil and one of the few nations still trading with Tehran despite sanctions.

Oil exports slumped after Trump ditched the nuclear deal but have recovered in the past few years, bringing in more than $50 billion in revenue in both 2022 and 2023 as Iran found ways to skirt sanctions, according to US Energy Information Administration estimates.

Yet uncertainty looms over the sustainability of the exports as Trump's maximum pressure policy aims to throttle Iran's crude sales with multiple rounds of sanctions on tankers and entities involved in the trade.

PUBLIC ANGER SIMMERS

Iran's rulers are also facing a string of other crises - energy and water shortages, a collapsing currency, military setbacks among regional allies and growing fears of an Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities - all intensified by Trump's tough stance.

The energy and water sectors are suffering from a lack of investment in infrastructure, overconsumption driven by subsidies, declining natural gas production and inefficient irrigation, all leading to power blackouts and water shortages.

The Iranian rial has shed more than 90% of its value against the dollar since the sanctions were reimposed in 2018, according to foreign exchange websites, officials and lawmakers.

Amid concerns about Trump's tough approach, Iranians seeking safe havens for their savings have been buying dollars, other hard currencies, gold or cryptocurrencies, suggesting further weakness for the rial, according to state media reports.

The price of rice has soared 200% since last year, state media has reported. Housing and utility costs have spiked sharply, climbing roughly 60% in some Tehran districts and other major cities in recent months, driven by the rial's steep fall and soaring raw material costs, according to media reports.

Official inflation hovers around 40%, though some Iranian experts say it is running at over 50%. The Statistical Center of Iran reported a significant rise in food prices, with over a third of essential commodities increasing by 40% in January to leave them more than double the same month the previous year.

In January, the Tasnim news agency quoted the head of Iran's Institute of Labor and Social Welfare, Ebrahim Sadeghifar, as saying 22% to 27% of Iranians were now below the poverty line.

Iran's Jomhuri-ye Eslami newspaper, meanwhile, said last week that poverty rates stood at around 50%.

"I can barely cover the rent for my carpet shop or pay my workers' salaries. No one has the money to buy carpets. If this continues, I will have to lay off my staff," Morteza, 39, said by phone from Tehran's Grand Bazaar, giving only his first name.

"How do they expect to solve the economic crisis if they refuse to talk to Trump? Just talk to him and reach a deal. You cannot afford pride on an empty stomach."

NUCLEAR RED LINE

Based on Iranian state media reports, there were at least 216 demonstrations across Iran in February, involving retirees, workers, healthcare professionals, students and merchants. The protests largely focused on economic hardships, including low wages and months of unpaid salaries, according to the reports.

While the protests were mostly small-scale, officials fear a deterioration in living standards could be explosive.

"The country is like a powder keg, and further economic strain could be the spark that sets it off," said one of the four officials, who is close to the government.

Iran's ruling elite is acutely aware of the risk of a resurgence of the unrest similar to the 2022-2023 protests over Mahsa Amini's death in custody, or the nationwide protests in 2019 over fuel price rises, the officials said.

The senior Iranian official said there had been several high-level meetings to discuss the possibility of new mass protests - and potential measures to head them off.

Nevertheless, despite the worries about potential unrest, Iranian officials said Tehran was only prepared to go so far in any talks with Trump, stressing that "excessive demands", such as dismantling Iran's peaceful nuclear program or its conventional missile capabilities, were off the table.

"Yes, there are concerns about more economic pressure, there are concerns about the nation's growing anger, but we cannot sacrifice our right to produce nuclear energy because Trump wants it," the senior official said.

Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, said Iran's rulers believed that negotiating with Trump under coercion would signal weakness, ultimately attracting more pressure than reducing it.

"That is why Khamenei seems to believe that the only thing that is more dangerous than suffering from sanctions is surrendering to them," he said.