Iran 2023: Suppressing Protests, Regional Diplomacy, and Deepening Confrontation with the West

Revolutionary Guard unveils the model of the “Fateh 2” missile during Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s tour at the permanent exhibition of Iranian missiles in November (Iranian media)
Revolutionary Guard unveils the model of the “Fateh 2” missile during Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s tour at the permanent exhibition of Iranian missiles in November (Iranian media)
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Iran 2023: Suppressing Protests, Regional Diplomacy, and Deepening Confrontation with the West

Revolutionary Guard unveils the model of the “Fateh 2” missile during Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s tour at the permanent exhibition of Iranian missiles in November (Iranian media)
Revolutionary Guard unveils the model of the “Fateh 2” missile during Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s tour at the permanent exhibition of Iranian missiles in November (Iranian media)

In 2023, Iran initiated a campaign to suppress the most extensive surge of popular protests ever witnessed in the country, sparked by the tragic death of the young woman Mahsa Amini while in custody.

During the first weeks of the year, the Iranian government sought to quell protests and strikes, hastily conducting trials for protesters and carrying out death sentences for the convicted.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, however, later issued a pardon for prisoners, encompassing those detained during the protests, amidst skepticism from human rights organizations.

Before the dust of the protests could settle, non-lethal but toxic attacks on girls’ schools across the country instigated a state of panic and fear among Iranians. The responsible party remains unknown to date.

The repercussions of the protests persist both domestically and internationally.

Tehran has accused Western powers of waging a hybrid war against it.

Iranian human rights activist Narges Mohammadi was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, while the European Union bestowed the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought upon Amini.

The US and Europe have also imposed a series of sanctions on Iranian officials, particularly targeting leaders of the military apparatus and the Iranian judiciary.

Relations between the UK and Iran became strained after Tehran executed Ali Reza Akbari, the former assistant defense minister and a close associate of Ali Shamkhani, the former Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, on charges of spying for the UK.

Just 72 hours after Akbari’s case was revealed, authorities announced his execution.

The execution of Akbari heightened tensions between Iran and Western powers.

Furthermore, prospects for reviving the nuclear agreement and returning to diplomatic channels stumbled as Russia expanded its use of Iranian drones in bombing Ukrainian cities.

Tehran insisted on its commitment to maintaining the diplomatic track and adhering to its conditions for returning to the nuclear agreement, but diplomatic efforts remained on the brink of collapse.

In February, William Burns, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), stated that Washington does not believe Khamenei has decided to resume nuclear weapons programs.

During the same month, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) criticized Iran for concealing a change in the enrichment system at the underground Fordow facility.

Shortly afterward, IAEA inspectors announced the discovery of uranium particles enriched to 83.7%, significantly surpassing Iran's declared enrichment level of 60%.

This raised concerns about Tehran laying the groundwork for enriching uranium to 90%, the threshold required for nuclear weapons production.

Iran blamed the IAEA inspectors, while the agency stated that Tehran had informed them that the cause was “unintended fluctuations” during equipment changes.

As tensions between Tehran and Western powers regarding the nuclear agreement escalated, coupled with its collaboration with Russia, Tehran made moves to break its isolation by seeking to improve relations with its regional neighbors.

A pivotal moment in these efforts was the achievement of an agreement with Saudi Arabia, mediated by China, to open a new chapter in diplomatic relations.

This breakthrough followed a seven-year hiatus and was met with regional and international approval.

Ultimately, it led to the exchange of ambassadors, the reopening of diplomatic missions, and reciprocal visits between the foreign ministers of the two countries.



Hezbollah’s ‘Statelet’ in Syria’s Qusayr Under Israeli Fire

Smoke billows from al-Qusayr in western Syria following an attack. (SANA)
Smoke billows from al-Qusayr in western Syria following an attack. (SANA)
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Hezbollah’s ‘Statelet’ in Syria’s Qusayr Under Israeli Fire

Smoke billows from al-Qusayr in western Syria following an attack. (SANA)
Smoke billows from al-Qusayr in western Syria following an attack. (SANA)

Israel has expanded its strikes against Hezbollah in Syria by targeting the al-Qusayr region in Homs.

Israel intensified its campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon in September and has in the process struck legal and illegal borders between Lebanon and Syria that are used to smuggle weapons to the Iran-backed party. Now, it has expanded its operations to areas of Hezbollah influence inside Syria itself.

Qusayr is located around 20 kms from the Lebanese border. Israeli strikes have destroyed several bridges in the area, including one stretching over the Assi River that is a vital connection between Qusayr and several towns in Homs’ eastern and western countrysides.

Israel has also hit main and side roads and Syrian regime checkpoints in the area.

The Israeli army announced that the latest attacks targeted roads that connect the Syrian side of the border to Lebanon and that are used to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah.

Qusayr is strategic position for Hezbollah. The Iran-backed party joined the fight alongside the Syrian regime against opposition factions in the early years of the Syrian conflict, which began in 2011. Hezbollah confirmed its involvement in Syria in 2013.

Hezbollah waged its earliest battles in Syria against the “Free Syrian Army” in Qusayr. After two months of fighting, the party captured the region in mid-June 2013. By then, it was completely destroyed and its population fled to Lebanon.

A source from the Syrian opposition said Hezbollah has turned Qusayr and its countryside to its own “statelet”.

It is now the backbone of its military power and the party has the final say in the area even though regime forces are deployed there, it told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“Qusayr is critical for Hezbollah because of its close proximity to the Lebanese border,” it added.

Several of Qusayr’s residents have since returned to their homes. But the source clarified that only regime loyalists and people whom Hezbollah “approves” of have returned.

The region has become militarized by Hezbollah. It houses training centers for the party and Shiite militias loyal to Iran whose fighters are trained by Hezbollah, continued the source.

Since Israel intensified its attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon, the party moved the majority of its fighters to Qusayr, where the party also stores large amounts of its weapons, it went on to say.

In 2016, Shiite Hezbollah staged a large military parade at the al-Dabaa airport in Qusayr that was seen as a message to the displaced residents, who are predominantly Sunni, that their return home will be impossible, stressed the source.

Even though the regime has deployed its forces in Qusayr, Hezbollah ultimately holds the greatest sway in the area.

Qusayr is therefore of paramount importance to Hezbollah, which will be in no way willing to cede control of.

Lebanese military expert Brig. Gen Saeed Al-Qazah told Asharq Al-Awsat that Qusayr is a “fundamental logistic position for Hezbollah.”

He explained that it is where the party builds its rockets and drones that are delivered from Iran. It is also where the party builds the launchpads for firing its Katyusha and grad rockets.

Qazah added that Qusayr is also significant for its proximity to Lebanon’s al-Hermel city and northeastern Bekaa region where Hezbollah enjoys popular support and where its arms deliveries pass through on their way to the South.

Qazah noted that Israel has not limited its strikes in Qusayr to bridges and main and side roads, but it has also hit trucks headed to Lebanon, stressing that Israel has its eyes focused deep inside Syria, not just the border.