Iran 2023: Suppressing Protests, Regional Diplomacy, and Deepening Confrontation with the West

Revolutionary Guard unveils the model of the “Fateh 2” missile during Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s tour at the permanent exhibition of Iranian missiles in November (Iranian media)
Revolutionary Guard unveils the model of the “Fateh 2” missile during Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s tour at the permanent exhibition of Iranian missiles in November (Iranian media)
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Iran 2023: Suppressing Protests, Regional Diplomacy, and Deepening Confrontation with the West

Revolutionary Guard unveils the model of the “Fateh 2” missile during Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s tour at the permanent exhibition of Iranian missiles in November (Iranian media)
Revolutionary Guard unveils the model of the “Fateh 2” missile during Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s tour at the permanent exhibition of Iranian missiles in November (Iranian media)

In 2023, Iran initiated a campaign to suppress the most extensive surge of popular protests ever witnessed in the country, sparked by the tragic death of the young woman Mahsa Amini while in custody.

During the first weeks of the year, the Iranian government sought to quell protests and strikes, hastily conducting trials for protesters and carrying out death sentences for the convicted.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, however, later issued a pardon for prisoners, encompassing those detained during the protests, amidst skepticism from human rights organizations.

Before the dust of the protests could settle, non-lethal but toxic attacks on girls’ schools across the country instigated a state of panic and fear among Iranians. The responsible party remains unknown to date.

The repercussions of the protests persist both domestically and internationally.

Tehran has accused Western powers of waging a hybrid war against it.

Iranian human rights activist Narges Mohammadi was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, while the European Union bestowed the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought upon Amini.

The US and Europe have also imposed a series of sanctions on Iranian officials, particularly targeting leaders of the military apparatus and the Iranian judiciary.

Relations between the UK and Iran became strained after Tehran executed Ali Reza Akbari, the former assistant defense minister and a close associate of Ali Shamkhani, the former Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, on charges of spying for the UK.

Just 72 hours after Akbari’s case was revealed, authorities announced his execution.

The execution of Akbari heightened tensions between Iran and Western powers.

Furthermore, prospects for reviving the nuclear agreement and returning to diplomatic channels stumbled as Russia expanded its use of Iranian drones in bombing Ukrainian cities.

Tehran insisted on its commitment to maintaining the diplomatic track and adhering to its conditions for returning to the nuclear agreement, but diplomatic efforts remained on the brink of collapse.

In February, William Burns, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), stated that Washington does not believe Khamenei has decided to resume nuclear weapons programs.

During the same month, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) criticized Iran for concealing a change in the enrichment system at the underground Fordow facility.

Shortly afterward, IAEA inspectors announced the discovery of uranium particles enriched to 83.7%, significantly surpassing Iran's declared enrichment level of 60%.

This raised concerns about Tehran laying the groundwork for enriching uranium to 90%, the threshold required for nuclear weapons production.

Iran blamed the IAEA inspectors, while the agency stated that Tehran had informed them that the cause was “unintended fluctuations” during equipment changes.

As tensions between Tehran and Western powers regarding the nuclear agreement escalated, coupled with its collaboration with Russia, Tehran made moves to break its isolation by seeking to improve relations with its regional neighbors.

A pivotal moment in these efforts was the achievement of an agreement with Saudi Arabia, mediated by China, to open a new chapter in diplomatic relations.

This breakthrough followed a seven-year hiatus and was met with regional and international approval.

Ultimately, it led to the exchange of ambassadors, the reopening of diplomatic missions, and reciprocal visits between the foreign ministers of the two countries.



Legal Threats Close in on Israel's Netanyahu, Could Impact Ongoing Wars

The International Criminal Court (ICC) building is pictured on November 21, 2024 in The Hague. (Photo by Laurens van PUTTEN / ANP / AFP) / Netherlands OUT
The International Criminal Court (ICC) building is pictured on November 21, 2024 in The Hague. (Photo by Laurens van PUTTEN / ANP / AFP) / Netherlands OUT
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Legal Threats Close in on Israel's Netanyahu, Could Impact Ongoing Wars

The International Criminal Court (ICC) building is pictured on November 21, 2024 in The Hague. (Photo by Laurens van PUTTEN / ANP / AFP) / Netherlands OUT
The International Criminal Court (ICC) building is pictured on November 21, 2024 in The Hague. (Photo by Laurens van PUTTEN / ANP / AFP) / Netherlands OUT

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces legal perils at home and abroad that point to a turbulent future for the Israeli leader and could influence the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, analysts and officials say.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) stunned Israel on Thursday by issuing arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defense chief Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the 13-month-old Gaza conflict. The bombshell came less than two weeks before Netanyahu is due to testify in a corruption trial that has dogged him for years and could end his political career if he is found guilty. He has denied any wrongdoing. While the domestic bribery trial has polarized public opinion, the prime minister has received widespread support from across the political spectrum following the ICC move, giving him a boost in troubled times.
Netanyahu has denounced the court's decision as antisemitic and denied charges that he and Gallant targeted Gazan civilians and deliberately starved them.
"Israelis get really annoyed if they think the world is against them and rally around their leader, even if he has faced a lot of criticism," said Yonatan Freeman, an international relations expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
"So anyone expecting that the ICC ruling will end this government, and what they see as a flawed (war) policy, is going to get the opposite," he added.
A senior diplomat said one initial consequence was that Israel might be less likely to reach a rapid ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon or secure a deal to bring back hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza.
"This terrible decision has ... badly harmed the chances of a deal in Lebanon and future negotiations on the issue of the hostages," said Ofir Akunis, Israel's consul general in New York.
"Terrible damage has been done because these organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas ... have received backing from the ICC and thus they are likely to make the price higher because they have the support of the ICC," he told Reuters.
While Hamas welcomed the ICC decision, there has been no indication that either it or Hezbollah see this as a chance to put pressure on Israel, which has inflicted huge losses on both groups over the past year, as well as on civilian populations.
IN THE DOCK
The ICC warrants highlight the disconnect between the way the war is viewed here and how it is seen by many abroad, with Israelis focused on their own losses and convinced the nation's army has sought to minimize civilian casualties.
Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the United States, said the ICC move would likely harden resolve and give the war cabinet license to hit Gaza and Lebanon harder still.
"There's a strong strand of Israeli feeling that runs deep, which says 'if we're being condemned for what we are doing, we might just as well go full gas'," he told Reuters.
While Netanyahu has received wide support at home over the ICC action, the same is not true of the domestic graft case, where he is accused of bribery, breach of trust and fraud.
The trial opened in 2020 and Netanyahu is finally scheduled to take the stand next month after the court rejected his latest request to delay testimony on the grounds that he had been too busy overseeing the war to prepare his defense.
He was due to give evidence last year but the date was put back because of the war. His critics have accused him of prolonging the Gaza conflict to delay judgment day and remain in power, which he denies. Always a divisive figure in Israel, public trust in Netanyahu fell sharply in the wake of the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas assault on southern Israel that caught his government off guard, cost around 1,200 lives.
Israel's subsequent campaign has killed more than 44,000 people and displaced nearly all Gaza's population at least once, triggering a humanitarian catastrophe, according to Gaza officials.
The prime minister has refused advice from the state attorney general to set up an independent commission into what went wrong and Israel's subsequent conduct of the war.
He is instead looking to establish an inquiry made up only of politicians, which critics say would not provide the sort of accountability demanded by the ICC.
Popular Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth said the failure to order an independent investigation had prodded the ICC into action. "Netanyahu preferred to take the risk of arrest warrants, just as long as he did not have to form such a commission," it wrote on Friday.
ARREST THREAT
The prime minister faces a difficult future living under the shadow of an ICC warrant, joining the ranks of only a few leaders to have suffered similar humiliation, including Libya's Muammar Gaddafi and Serbia's Slobodan Milosevic.
It also means he risks arrest if he travels to any of the court's 124 signatory states, including most of Europe.
One place he can safely visit is the United States, which is not a member of the ICC, and Israeli leaders hope US President-elect Donald Trump will bring pressure to bear by imposing sanctions on ICC officials.
Mike Waltz, Trump's nominee for national security advisor, has already promised tough action: "You can expect a strong response to the antisemitic bias of the ICC & UN come January,” he wrote on X on Friday. In the meantime, Israeli officials are talking to their counterparts in Western capitals, urging them to ignore the arrest warrants, as Hungary has already promised to do.
However, the charges are not going to disappear soon, if at all, meaning fellow leaders will be increasingly reluctant to have relations with Netanyahu, said Yuval Shany, a senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute.
"In a very direct sense, there is going to be more isolation for the Israeli state going forward," he told Reuters.