The developments in Lebanon in 2023 consolidated the “caretaker state” amid the ongoing vacuum in the presidency.
The country’s top post has been vacant since October 2022 and with the absence of a president, state institutions have started to operate in a caretaker capacity or have had the terms of their chiefs extended.
The crippling financial and economic crisis, which erupted in 2019, persisted with authorities failing to lift a finger to address it.
Politicians have tied any effort to address pending problems to the election of a president, however, they failed to reach a breakthrough in 2023 in spite of internal and foreign initiatives.
The “Shiite duo” of Hezbollah and the Amal movement, headed by parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, remains committed to its candidate, Suleiman Franjieh, leaders of the Marada Movement.
The opposition abandoned its candidate Michel Moawad in return for a deal with the Free Patriotic Movement over the election of former minister Jihad Azour. However, none of these moves led to any progress in resolving the impasse.
Paris had also favored Franjieh’s election, but it backed down after meeting with the members of the so-called international quintet that includes Saudi Arabia, the United States, Qatar and Egypt. The quintet, which also includes France, agreed on nominating another candidate.
As it stands, army commander General Jospeh Aoun is favorite to be elected even after his term as head of the military was extended for another year in 2023.
Observers have tied any breakthrough in the presidency to the war on Gaza, speculating that Lebanon may be part of a broader settlement in the region.
Vacuum spreads
The vacuum in the presidency spread to other state institutions. The government continues to operate in a caretaker capacity and legislative work has come to a standstill.
The majority of Christian MPs refuse to allow parliament to resume normal work before a president – who is always a Maronite Christian – is elected. They charge that amid a presidential vacuum, the parliament’s work must be restricted to electing a new head of state above anything else.
The vacuum has prevented the government from completing crucial military, security, judicial and financial appointments.
General Security chief Abbas Ibrahim retired in March, leading to the appointment of the most senior officer, Elias al-Baysari, as his successor in an acting capacity. Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh’s term ended in August, with his first deputy being named as his successor, but in an acting capacity.
Most recently and after much political squabbling, the parliament extended the terms of the leaders of security and military agencies for a whole year.
Back in May, parliament was forced – for the second time in as many years – to postpone for another year municipal elections.
Syrian refugees
The Syrian refugee file continued to fester in Lebanon. In October, the tensions between refugees and Lebanese boiled over with clashes erupting in the Mount Lebanon and northern regions. A number of people were killed and injured in the unrest.
Calls had mounted in 2022 for the return of the refugees to their home country given the hefty economic and financial price Lebanon continues to pay in hosting them.
The army has since intensified its border control measures to prevent the illegal entry of Syrians into Lebanon. The Interior Ministry has also cracked down on illegal refugees in the country.
Gas file
Lebanon was dealt a crushing blow in October with the announcement that no gas was found in offshore Block 9.
The block was the subject of a heated dispute between Lebanon and Israel. It was resolved through American mediation last year.
The Energy Ministry has sought to assure the Lebanese that gas may be found in other offshore blocks.
On the verge of war
Lebanon was plunged in yet another crisis with the eruption of Israel’s war on Gaza in October. Hezbollah has dragged Lebanon into the conflict by launching attacks against Israel from the South.
The clashes in the South are gradually escalating. Palestinian and Lebanese groups have also joined the fight alongside Hezbollah, which has so far lost over a hundred fighters.
There are fears that Israel may expand its war on Gaza into Lebanon.
Several international envoys have visited Lebanon to urge Hezbollah to cease its operations and withdraw to the region north of the Litani River in line with United Nations Security Council 1701 that helped end the last war between the Iran-backed party and Israel in 2006.
Hezbollah has remained unyielding in its position, saying it will implement the resolution once the war on Gaza is over.
