Can Sudan Survive?

Displaced people fleeing from Wad Madani in Sudan's Jazira state. AFP
Displaced people fleeing from Wad Madani in Sudan's Jazira state. AFP
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Can Sudan Survive?

Displaced people fleeing from Wad Madani in Sudan's Jazira state. AFP
Displaced people fleeing from Wad Madani in Sudan's Jazira state. AFP

The year 2023 began on a seemingly optimistic note for Sudan. Its leading generals, Burhan of the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and Hemedti of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) had endorsed a framework agreement to create a civilian transitional government. Tragically, at year end, Sudan faces de facto division like Libya. Its capital is destroyed, ethnic killing rages, 5.5 million Sudanese are displaced and 18 million are experiencing acute hunger.

This is a far cry from what the Sudanese people, the United States and others envisioned following the April 2019 ouster of President Bashir and subsequent formation of a predominantly civilian transitional government. What went wrong? The kleptocratic state created by Bashir proved powerful and enduring despite his ouster. Civilian political actors became increasingly fractious and failed to connect with the women and youth who led the 2018-19 revolution. When the transitional government tried to transition some control of the economy from military hands, Generals Burhan and Hemedti staged a coup in October 2021.

Post-coup, the United Nations, African Union and the regional Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) jointly tried to facilitate a new accommodation between civilian political actors and the generals. The United States supported this effort. The process led to an agreement to establish a new civilian transitional government in April 2023. However, the contentious issue of integration of the RSF and SAF into one army remained unresolved and spoilers took advantage.

On April 15, fighting broke out between SAF and RSF in and around the capital, Khartoum. It quickly spread. At year’s end, the RSF controls four of the five states of Darfur in the west and significant portions of Kordofan in the south as well as much of greater Khartoum. The SAF dominates most areas east of the White Nile. Sudan is de facto divided.

The world has not ignored this new crisis in Sudan. The United States and Saudi Arabia quickly organized negotiations in Jeddah seeking a ceasefire and humanitarian access to displaced Sudanese. Despite the generals’ promises of a ceasefire, fighting continued. Negotiations were suspended. Other external actors also tried their hand at mediation. However, Burhan’s rump government rejected African Union efforts citing the AU’s post-coup suspension of Sudan as evidence of bias. Burhan rejected the IGAD quartet effort claiming its Kenyan leadership favored the RSF. He also stymied any role for the UN’s mission in Sudan. Egypt convened a meeting of neighboring states but that effort failed to stop the fighting. The most horrendous result of the expanding conflict was the slaughter of ethnic Masalit by the RSF and its nomadic tribal allies. Such killing and raping continues to spread unchecked or uncheckable by RSF leadership.

In October 2023, the United States and Saudi Arabia resumed the Jeddah talks and soon secured SAF and RSF agreement to discuss confidence building measures toward establishing a permanent ceasefire. However, the Sudanese generals quickly reverted to their maximalist demands of the other and the fighting continued. IGAD convened an extraordinary summit on December 3 and reportedly generals Burhan and Hemedti agreed to meet within 15 days to discuss a 30-day ceasefire. No sooner had Burhan returned from the summit than his Foreign Ministry began undermining the summit’s outcome. Peace efforts seem to be deadlocked.

Despite recent RSF territorial gains, the fighting also seems headed for deadlock. Can the SAF or RSF decisively defeat the other? While the generals may still believe so, Sudan’s history suggests otherwise. Its prior 38 years of civil war resulted in the country’s partition, not military victory.

Is further division of Sudan what anyone – Sudanese or outside party - really wants? Whose interests are served by such an outcome? Certainly not the interests of the majority of Sudanese who will continue to suffer and die if fighting continues. Certainly not the interests of the United States and Europe which want the ethnic killing to stop, humanitarian relief to flow and democratic governance in Sudan. And hopefully not Sudan’s neighbors who either fear a spillover of insecurity or want to invest in Sudan’s vast mineral, agricultural and commercial potential. Can investments really be secure if two armed camps continue to fight?

For the fighting and current de facto division to end, compromises need to be made among all parties’ interests. Where to begin? Probably not with Sudan’s generals who are still seeking military victory and offering no plausible path to peace. Perhaps begin with those who are enabling the continued fighting. Recently appointed UN Secretary General Special Envoy Ramtane Lamamra has the experience and gravitas necessary to engage all parties connected to the conflict to stop the fighting and open space for a political solution. The imminent appointment of an IGAD special envoy could also help, provided there is unity of effort with Lamamra. Perhaps a non-official “track two” effort could also be helpful in finding a formula that satisfies enough of each parties’ interests to end the fighting and find a political path to re-unify Sudan. However, true national unification will require the support of the vast majority of the Sudanese people. That means the civilian political and grassroots movements, which are becoming increasingly unified, need to be at the center of any formula for lasting peace and stability. Since independence, Sudan mostly experienced military rule and it became a brittle state. Cobbling together another military-dominated government and hoping for a different outcome is futile.

Might the United States and Europe support such an interests-based approach entailing many compromises? Might they be better able to achieve the security, humanitarian and governance objectives of the Sudanese people by doing so? Could they support deals cut by Sudan’s generals and civilian leaders with the country’s regional partners? In other words, could they compromise some of their interests if those fueling and fighting the war are willing to do the same?

Sudan’s survival depends on ending the fighting. That requires adroit diplomacy, facilitated by a trusted, disinterested party, to secure compromises of both Sudanese and external interests.



These are 5 Things the UN Does that You May Not Have Known

The United Nations logo is seen on a window in an empty hallway at United Nations headquarters during the 75th annual UN General Assembly high-level debate in New York, US, September 21, 2020. REUTERS/Mike Segar
The United Nations logo is seen on a window in an empty hallway at United Nations headquarters during the 75th annual UN General Assembly high-level debate in New York, US, September 21, 2020. REUTERS/Mike Segar
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These are 5 Things the UN Does that You May Not Have Known

The United Nations logo is seen on a window in an empty hallway at United Nations headquarters during the 75th annual UN General Assembly high-level debate in New York, US, September 21, 2020. REUTERS/Mike Segar
The United Nations logo is seen on a window in an empty hallway at United Nations headquarters during the 75th annual UN General Assembly high-level debate in New York, US, September 21, 2020. REUTERS/Mike Segar

The United Nations' vast system has tackled everything from delivering life-saving humanitarian aid to providing crucial peacekeeping operations in conflict zones since it was established in the wake of World War II.

As the international body closes in on 80 years, questions about its relevancy and efficiency have sharpened from supporters and critics alike. Recent US cuts to foreign assistance and the reevaluation of humanitarian contributions by other countries have forced a reckoning for the UN, said The Associated Press.

The organization has long sought to highlight its unique role as the meeting place of global leaders, with an ambitious mandate to prevent another world war.

Staffers, however, say the UN does more than respond to civilians’ needs in war zones and debate resolutions in the Security Council.

“The things that are not on the radar of anyone, that nobody sees every day, that’s what we do everywhere, in more than 150 countries,” said Diene Keita, executive director for programs at the UN's population agency.

Here are five things the UN does that you may not have known:

Providing training to women and girls who have faced gender-based violence.

UN agencies facilitate programs worldwide focused on women, tied to education, financial literacy, employment opportunities and more. Among the most sensitive services provided are those for victims of gender-based violence.

In Chad, the UN Population Fund operates several rehabilitation programs for women and girls recovering from that trauma. One of them, Halima Yakoy Adam, was taken at age 15 to a Boko Haram training camp in Nigeria, where she and several other girls were forced to become suicide bombers. Adam managed to escape with severe injuries, while the others died in blasts.

Through UN programs on the islands of Lake Chad, Adam received health and reproductive services as well as vocational training. She is now working as a paralegal in her community to assist other women and girls.

“We are not created to stay,” Keita said of UN agencies' long-term presence. “So this is embedded in what we do every single day. We have that humility in knowing that we make a difference, so that people do not need us the next day.”

Resettling refugees in Mexico

Images of refugees at US and European borders show the migration crisis around the world. Often overlooked are the refugees who are resettled in communities outside American and European cities, ones that resemble their home countries and cultural upbringings.

Since 2016, the UN's refugee agency has supported the integration of more than 50,000 refugees and asylum-seekers in Mexico. They arrived in southern Mexico and were relocated to industrial cities after being screened and granted asylum by the government.

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees provides transportation, orientation and access to health, education and other social services. More than 650 companies have agreed to train and employ these people, whose labor has generated a $15 million annual contribution to the Mexican economy, according to the UN.

According to UN estimates, 94% of these working-age refugees have secured formal employment within their first month in the country and nearly 90% of school-age children have enrolled in school. The UN program also provides what staffers describe as clear pathways to Mexican citizenship.

“Mexico has become a country where people forced to flee can find the stability they need to restart their lives with dignity,” Giovanni Lepri, the top UN refugee agency official in Mexico, said in March. “A strong asylum system and legal framework allows an effective integration of asylum-seekers and refugees.”

Eliminating exploding remnants of war

UN agencies are present throughout various phases of war, from delivering food, water and medical supplies in an active military zone to the iconic “Blue Helmets” — the military personnel deployed to help countries transition out of conflict.

Less attention is paid to efforts made after the dust has settled.

One of those initiatives, the United Nations Mine Action Service, was established in 1997 to facilitate projects aimed at mitigating the threat posed by unexploded munitions in countries years — and sometimes decades — after war.

The UN estimates that on average, one person is killed or injured by land mines and other explosive ordnance every hour.

In January, a 21-year-old man was harvesting olives in a Syrian orchard with two friends when they noticed a visible mine on the ground. Panicked, they tried to leave, but one of them stepped on a land mine and it exploded, amputating one of his legs above the knee.

A month later, in Cambodia, a rocket-propelled grenade believed to be more than 25 years old killed two toddlers when it blew up near their homes.

The UN program aims to work with communities in Syria, Afghanistan and Nigeria to safely locate and remove these remnants of war while providing education and threat assessments.

Since its inception, the UN says more than 55 million land mines have been destroyed and over 30 countries have become mine-free.

Teaching refugee girls self-defense in Kenya

In a refugee camp in northwest Kenya, dozens of girls 12 to 18 have gathered every Saturday at a women's empowerment center to learn self-defense through a Taekwondo class.

The program, launched by the UN's Population Fund last year, has focused on providing an outlet for girls who have either been victims of gender-based violence or are at risk of it after fleeing conflict zones in countries like South Sudan, Ethiopia and Congo.

The coaches are locals who understand the cultural and political dynamics their students face while living in a camp that is home to nearly 300,000 refugees.

The goal is to use sports activities to create safe spaces for women and girls to discuss various issues like period poverty, abuse and domestic conflict. The program, which the UN has replicated in Egypt and elsewhere, is funded by the Olympic Refuge Foundation.

Sex education by monks in Bhutan

Topics surrounding sex and reproductive issues were considered taboo for centuries in Buddhist communities. UN staffers have spent the past decade working with religious leaders in Bhutan and other countries in Asia to “desensitize” the topics they believe are crucial to a healthy society.

The campaign has led more than 1,500 nuns from 26 nunneries to hold discussions with community members around sexual and reproductive health and the prevention of gender-based violence.

Now, at least 50 monks are trained to provide counseling services on these topics to students across Bhutan's 20 districts.

The UN says these partnerships, which began in 2014, have contributed to a decrease in maternal mortality, an increase in contraception use, and better reproductive care for pregnant women.