What If Artificial Intelligence Prevailed?

The effect of AI is set to unfold further in 2024. (ShutterStock)
The effect of AI is set to unfold further in 2024. (ShutterStock)
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What If Artificial Intelligence Prevailed?

The effect of AI is set to unfold further in 2024. (ShutterStock)
The effect of AI is set to unfold further in 2024. (ShutterStock)

In the dynamic landscape of 2023, one of the pivotal factors driving the ascent of technology company stocks lies in the prevailing optimism surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) and its anticipated impact. The effect of AI is set to unfold further in 2024.

However, the question that looms large is whether AI poses a threat to the job market, potentially disrupting the livelihoods of the majority of workers and employees starting from the upcoming year.

This inquiry has not only been posed by many observers, but has also been championed by tech magnate Elon Musk, who advocates for legislations to curb the proliferation of AI. Musk argues that machines, endowed with faster problem-solving and data processing capabilities, might ultimately turn against humanity.

Yet, the lingering question remains: is this assertion an exaggeration, or is it a plausible scenario?

Many viewpoints suggest that AI will obliterate the realm of asset management and financial markets, supplanting traditional practices.

However, such a perspective is inherently limited in comprehending the intricacies of both AI and human intelligence. AI fundamentally operates based on the quantity of input from historical information, employing statistical analysis to sift through and formulate logic.

Conversely, human relationships with the past are subjective, and depth of understanding is often confined to specific details. Human choices regarding issue details are frequently not driven by specific logical reasons, as they may be influenced by entrenched beliefs or unfounded suspicions.

Human behavior is often characterized by irrationality, yet within the realm of the human mind lies the capacity for logic. Consequently, many human opinions and thoughts prove unpredictable, even as human logical behavior pertains to specifics and details rather than adhering to the past as an absolute rule.

The intelligent and successful human mind engages with the past qualitatively, often inclined toward skepticism and criticism, in stark contrast to machines, which may struggle to delve into crucial details and rely quantitatively on the past, lacking a qualitative understanding even if equipped with logical reasoning.

Take, for instance, the divergence of human intelligence in predicting Federal Reserve policies—whether to raise, defer, or reduce interest rates—an inconsistency that reverberates through financial markets. Similarly, in the 2007 financial crisis, human intelligence varied in assessing the quality of mortgage assets, leading to the profound economic turmoil that shook markets.

In both crises, a minority sensed the impending danger early on and took preemptive action—a distinctly human trait stemming from the unrestricted and independent nature of the human mind.

Machines, on the other hand, struggle to transcend the average human estimates and often fall prey to errors. For instance, during the coronavirus pandemic, the lack of historical information posed a challenge for AI, resulting in predominantly speculative outputs and fears.

This highlighted the inadequacy of AI in developing suitable models for proposing optimal solutions in the absence of historical data.

AI represents a significant leap in human progress, streamlining traditional and routine tasks, mitigating some human errors, and expanding the scope for innovation and initiative.

The beauty of innovation lies in its maturation over time. While it is anticipated that average human lifespan will increase in the future, the peril of this intelligence lies in its potential to eliminate jobs requiring human initiative and interpersonal skills, potentially widening social disparities and global wealth gaps.

Plato’s ancient assertion that the elite use their intellect while the lower class relies on physical labor resonates through the ages, highlighting the enduring societal implications.

Ultimately, AI serves as an augmentation to human evolution rather than a threat. Therefore, humans must prioritize continuous education, recognizing that knowledge knows no age or bounds.

Humanity should break away from conventional thinking, critically evaluate the past, and, above all, remember to laugh, love, dream, and maintain optimism for the future.



Will a Weakened Hezbollah in Lebanon Disarm? 

Hezbollah fighters shout slogans during the funeral procession of their top commander Fouad Shukur, who was killed by an Israeli airstrike on July 30, in a southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, Aug. 1, 2024. (AP)
Hezbollah fighters shout slogans during the funeral procession of their top commander Fouad Shukur, who was killed by an Israeli airstrike on July 30, in a southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, Aug. 1, 2024. (AP)
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Will a Weakened Hezbollah in Lebanon Disarm? 

Hezbollah fighters shout slogans during the funeral procession of their top commander Fouad Shukur, who was killed by an Israeli airstrike on July 30, in a southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, Aug. 1, 2024. (AP)
Hezbollah fighters shout slogans during the funeral procession of their top commander Fouad Shukur, who was killed by an Israeli airstrike on July 30, in a southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, Aug. 1, 2024. (AP)

Israel's latest airstrike on what it called a Hezbollah missile storage facility in Beirut's southern suburbs came during increasing pressure for the Iran-backed Lebanese group to disarm.

The disarmament of what has been the region's most powerful non-state armed group has come to look increasingly inevitable. Hezbollah is severely weakened after a war with Israel in which much of its top leadership was killed, and after losing a key ally with the fall of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a conduit for Iran to send arms.

Israel and the US are pushing for swift disarmament, but when and how it will happen - if it does - is contested.

Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun has said he is committed to bringing all arms in the country under state control, but that it will happen through discussions around a national security plan and not through force.

Many fear that an attempt to force the issue would lead to civil conflict, which Aoun has called a “red line.”

Hezbollah officials have said in principle that they are willing to discuss the group's arsenal, but leader Sheikh Naim Qassem said in a speech earlier this month that any serious discussions are contingent on Israel withdrawing its forces from territory they occupy in southern Lebanon and halting near-daily airstrikes.

“The Lebanese have to strike a delicate balance” on disarmament, said Aram Nerguizian, a senior associate with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“Go too slow ... and you will lose internal momentum and international legitimacy. Go too fast and you get accused by a still-hurting and battered Shiite community” — who make up most of Hezbollah's constituency — “of acting as a proxy for Israel, while risking Hezbollah remnants ... waging an insurgency against the Lebanese government.”

What would disarmament look like? After Lebanon’s 15-year civil war ended in 1990, the country went through a process of disarming most of the militias that had taken part. Hezbollah was the exception, given special status as a “resistance force” fighting against Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon at the time.

Aoun has outlined his vision of a similar disarmament process. Former Hezbollah fighters could apply to join the Lebanese army as individuals, the president said. Weapons deemed “usable” by the army would become part of its arsenal, while those deemed “unusable” would be destroyed.

Nerguizian said that more than 90% of Hezbollah's “sophisticated and heavy weapons” — which once included tens of thousands of missiles and drones — are believed to have been destroyed already, the vast majority of them by Israel.

What remains, he said, would not be compatible with the Lebanese army's arsenal, which is largely Western-supplied, while Hezbollah uses Iranian, Russian and Chinese-made weapons.

Nerguizian said it is unlikely that large numbers of Hezbollah's tens of thousands of fighters would be incorporated into the army because their ideology has not been compatible as a paramilitary force that has largely been “tied to the preferences of Iran.”

Retired Lebanese army Gen. Hassan Jouni agreed that much of Hezbollah's arsenal would not be easily integrated but said the post-civil war era provides a precedent for integrating fighters.

After going through training, “they become like any other soldier,” he said. While there might be a “religious and ideological obstacle” for some Hezbollah fighters, “I do not think this is the case for everyone.”

Ibrahim Mousawi, a member of Hezbollah's parliamentary bloc, told The Associated Press that “everything is open for discussion.”

“We don’t want to jump into discussing the details,” he said. “This is something that is being left in the hands of the president and the Hezbollah leadership to deal with.”

Mousawi said the destruction of Hezbollah’s arsenal “shouldn’t be acceptable to Lebanon.”

The cash-strapped Lebanese army has struggled to maintain its aging arsenal. In recent years, it has turned to the US and Qatar to help pay soldiers' salaries.

“We are part of the Lebanese strength,” Mousawi said. “If the Americans are really keen to show us that they really respect Lebanon and they care for the Lebanese, ... why don’t they equip the Lebanese army with defensive weapons?”

When might disarming occur? US envoy Morgan Ortagus said earlier this month in an interview broadcast on Lebanese channel LBCI that Hezbollah should be disarmed “as soon as possible."

A Lebanese diplomat said there is ongoing pressure from the Americans on that front. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.

Hezbollah’s stance that it will not discuss giving up its armed wing before Israel withdraws from five key border points in southern Lebanon appears likely to drag out the process. Israeli officials have said that they plan to remain there indefinitely to secure their border and guard against any ceasefire violations by Hezbollah.

Israeli officials did not respond to a request for comment on the issue of Lebanon's army integrating former Hezbollah weapons and fighters.

Lebanese officials say that the Israeli presence violates the ceasefire agreement in November, under which Israel and Hezbollah were supposed to withdraw their forces from southern Lebanon, with the Lebanese army taking control alongside UN peacekeepers.

The Lebanese diplomat said that US officials had acknowledged that Israeli forces remaining in the five border points constituted an “occupation” but had not put strong pressure on Israel to withdraw quickly.

A “smart way to break the deadlock” and avoid further escalation is for Washington to increase its support for the Lebanese army and push Israel to withdraw, said Bilal Saab, a former Pentagon official and senior managing director of the Washington-based TRENDS US consulting firm.

Retired Lebanese army Gen. Elias Hanna said he believes that Hezbollah is “still in the phase of denial” regarding the diminution of its military and political clout.

He said disarmament needs to take place as part of broader discussions about Lebanon's military doctrine and strategy. The Lebanese army could benefit from the experience of Hezbollah, which for many years maintained deterrence with Israel before the latest war, he said.

Saab said he believes the outcome is not in doubt.

“Hezbollah has a choice,” he said. “Either lay down its arms or have them removed by Israeli force.”