Will a Weakened Hezbollah in Lebanon Disarm? 

Hezbollah fighters shout slogans during the funeral procession of their top commander Fouad Shukur, who was killed by an Israeli airstrike on July 30, in a southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, Aug. 1, 2024. (AP)
Hezbollah fighters shout slogans during the funeral procession of their top commander Fouad Shukur, who was killed by an Israeli airstrike on July 30, in a southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, Aug. 1, 2024. (AP)
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Will a Weakened Hezbollah in Lebanon Disarm? 

Hezbollah fighters shout slogans during the funeral procession of their top commander Fouad Shukur, who was killed by an Israeli airstrike on July 30, in a southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, Aug. 1, 2024. (AP)
Hezbollah fighters shout slogans during the funeral procession of their top commander Fouad Shukur, who was killed by an Israeli airstrike on July 30, in a southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, Aug. 1, 2024. (AP)

Israel's latest airstrike on what it called a Hezbollah missile storage facility in Beirut's southern suburbs came during increasing pressure for the Iran-backed Lebanese group to disarm.

The disarmament of what has been the region's most powerful non-state armed group has come to look increasingly inevitable. Hezbollah is severely weakened after a war with Israel in which much of its top leadership was killed, and after losing a key ally with the fall of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a conduit for Iran to send arms.

Israel and the US are pushing for swift disarmament, but when and how it will happen - if it does - is contested.

Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun has said he is committed to bringing all arms in the country under state control, but that it will happen through discussions around a national security plan and not through force.

Many fear that an attempt to force the issue would lead to civil conflict, which Aoun has called a “red line.”

Hezbollah officials have said in principle that they are willing to discuss the group's arsenal, but leader Sheikh Naim Qassem said in a speech earlier this month that any serious discussions are contingent on Israel withdrawing its forces from territory they occupy in southern Lebanon and halting near-daily airstrikes.

“The Lebanese have to strike a delicate balance” on disarmament, said Aram Nerguizian, a senior associate with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“Go too slow ... and you will lose internal momentum and international legitimacy. Go too fast and you get accused by a still-hurting and battered Shiite community” — who make up most of Hezbollah's constituency — “of acting as a proxy for Israel, while risking Hezbollah remnants ... waging an insurgency against the Lebanese government.”

What would disarmament look like? After Lebanon’s 15-year civil war ended in 1990, the country went through a process of disarming most of the militias that had taken part. Hezbollah was the exception, given special status as a “resistance force” fighting against Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon at the time.

Aoun has outlined his vision of a similar disarmament process. Former Hezbollah fighters could apply to join the Lebanese army as individuals, the president said. Weapons deemed “usable” by the army would become part of its arsenal, while those deemed “unusable” would be destroyed.

Nerguizian said that more than 90% of Hezbollah's “sophisticated and heavy weapons” — which once included tens of thousands of missiles and drones — are believed to have been destroyed already, the vast majority of them by Israel.

What remains, he said, would not be compatible with the Lebanese army's arsenal, which is largely Western-supplied, while Hezbollah uses Iranian, Russian and Chinese-made weapons.

Nerguizian said it is unlikely that large numbers of Hezbollah's tens of thousands of fighters would be incorporated into the army because their ideology has not been compatible as a paramilitary force that has largely been “tied to the preferences of Iran.”

Retired Lebanese army Gen. Hassan Jouni agreed that much of Hezbollah's arsenal would not be easily integrated but said the post-civil war era provides a precedent for integrating fighters.

After going through training, “they become like any other soldier,” he said. While there might be a “religious and ideological obstacle” for some Hezbollah fighters, “I do not think this is the case for everyone.”

Ibrahim Mousawi, a member of Hezbollah's parliamentary bloc, told The Associated Press that “everything is open for discussion.”

“We don’t want to jump into discussing the details,” he said. “This is something that is being left in the hands of the president and the Hezbollah leadership to deal with.”

Mousawi said the destruction of Hezbollah’s arsenal “shouldn’t be acceptable to Lebanon.”

The cash-strapped Lebanese army has struggled to maintain its aging arsenal. In recent years, it has turned to the US and Qatar to help pay soldiers' salaries.

“We are part of the Lebanese strength,” Mousawi said. “If the Americans are really keen to show us that they really respect Lebanon and they care for the Lebanese, ... why don’t they equip the Lebanese army with defensive weapons?”

When might disarming occur? US envoy Morgan Ortagus said earlier this month in an interview broadcast on Lebanese channel LBCI that Hezbollah should be disarmed “as soon as possible."

A Lebanese diplomat said there is ongoing pressure from the Americans on that front. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.

Hezbollah’s stance that it will not discuss giving up its armed wing before Israel withdraws from five key border points in southern Lebanon appears likely to drag out the process. Israeli officials have said that they plan to remain there indefinitely to secure their border and guard against any ceasefire violations by Hezbollah.

Israeli officials did not respond to a request for comment on the issue of Lebanon's army integrating former Hezbollah weapons and fighters.

Lebanese officials say that the Israeli presence violates the ceasefire agreement in November, under which Israel and Hezbollah were supposed to withdraw their forces from southern Lebanon, with the Lebanese army taking control alongside UN peacekeepers.

The Lebanese diplomat said that US officials had acknowledged that Israeli forces remaining in the five border points constituted an “occupation” but had not put strong pressure on Israel to withdraw quickly.

A “smart way to break the deadlock” and avoid further escalation is for Washington to increase its support for the Lebanese army and push Israel to withdraw, said Bilal Saab, a former Pentagon official and senior managing director of the Washington-based TRENDS US consulting firm.

Retired Lebanese army Gen. Elias Hanna said he believes that Hezbollah is “still in the phase of denial” regarding the diminution of its military and political clout.

He said disarmament needs to take place as part of broader discussions about Lebanon's military doctrine and strategy. The Lebanese army could benefit from the experience of Hezbollah, which for many years maintained deterrence with Israel before the latest war, he said.

Saab said he believes the outcome is not in doubt.

“Hezbollah has a choice,” he said. “Either lay down its arms or have them removed by Israeli force.”



Trump Vowed to Ease Sanctions on Syria. How Quickly that Happens is Up for Debate

In this photo released by the Saudi Royal Palace, President Donald Trump, right, shakes hands with Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Wednesday, May 14, 2025. (Bandar Aljaloud/Saudi Royal Palace via AP)
In this photo released by the Saudi Royal Palace, President Donald Trump, right, shakes hands with Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Wednesday, May 14, 2025. (Bandar Aljaloud/Saudi Royal Palace via AP)
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Trump Vowed to Ease Sanctions on Syria. How Quickly that Happens is Up for Debate

In this photo released by the Saudi Royal Palace, President Donald Trump, right, shakes hands with Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Wednesday, May 14, 2025. (Bandar Aljaloud/Saudi Royal Palace via AP)
In this photo released by the Saudi Royal Palace, President Donald Trump, right, shakes hands with Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Wednesday, May 14, 2025. (Bandar Aljaloud/Saudi Royal Palace via AP)

Since President Donald Trump announced his intent to end a half-century of US sanctions on Syria, a debate has developed in his administration over how quickly and thoroughly that should happen.

At risk could be the future of a transitional government run by those who drove Syrian leader Bashar Assad from power late last year and hopes that it can stabilize the country after a devastating 13-year civil war that has left millions dead or displaced, the economy in ruins and thousands of foreign fighters still on Syrian soil.

US presidents have piled up penalties over the years on the autocratic family that previously controlled Syria, and those could be quickly lifted or waived through executive action. But Congress imposed some of the strictest measures and would have to permanently remove them.

Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, the former opposition commander who led the overthrow, says he is working to build an inclusive government friendly to the West. Some Trump administration officials are pushing to lift or waive sanctions as fast as possible without demanding tough conditions first.

Others in the administration have proposed a phased approach, giving short-term waivers soon on some sanctions and then tying extensions or a wider executive order to Syria meeting conditions, which could substantially slow — or even permanently prevent — longer-term relief. That would impede the interim government’s ability to attract investment and rebuild Syria after the war, critics say.

“The Syria sanctions are a complex web of statutes, executive actions and United Nations Security Council resolutions that have to be unwound thoughtfully and cautiously,” White House National Security Council spokesman Max Bluestein said.

The administration is “currently analyzing the optimal way to do so” and would have an announcement soon, Bluestein said in a statement Thursday to The Associated Press.

A State Department proposal circulated among officials after Trump's pledge on his Middle East trip last week lays out sweeping conditions for future phases of relief or permanent lifting of sanctions, including dismantling Palestinian militant groups as a top demand, according to a senior US official familiar with the plan, who was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

Additional proposals are circulating, including one shared this week that broadly emphasized taking all the action possible, as fast as possible, to help Syria rebuild, the official said.

A welcome US announcement in Syria People danced in the streets of Damascus after Trump announced in Saudi Arabia last week that he would “be ordering the cessation of sanctions against Syria in order to give them a chance at greatness.”

“We're taking them all off,” Trump said a day before meeting the country’s new leader. “Good luck, Syria. Show us something special.”

This week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio advocated for a hedged approach in testimony before US lawmakers.

Rubio pushed for sanctions relief to start quickly, saying Syria’s five-month-old transition government could be weeks from “collapse and a full-scale civil war of epic proportions.”

But asked what sanctions relief should look like overall, Rubio gave a one-word explanation: “Incremental.”

Washington has levied sanctions against Syria's former ruling family since 1979 over its support for Hezbollah and other Iranian-allied militant groups, its alleged chemical weapons program and its brutality against civilians as the Assad family fought to stay in power.

The sanctions include heavy penalties for outside companies or investors doing business there. Syria needs tens of billions of dollars in investment to restore its battered infrastructure and help the estimated 90% of the population living in poverty.

Syria’s interim leaders “didn’t pass their background check with the FBI,” Rubio acknowledged to lawmakers this week. The group that al-Sharaa led, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, was originally affiliated with al-Qaida, although it later renounced ties and took a more moderate tone. It is still listed by the US as a terrorist organization.

But al-Sharaa's government could be the best chance for rebuilding the country and avoiding a power vacuum that could allow for a resurgence of the ISIS group and other extremist groups.

“If we engage them, it may work out, it may not work out. If we do not engage them, it was guaranteed to not work out,” Rubio said.

Mouaz Moustafa, executive director of the US-based Syrian Emergency Task Force and an advocate who has been influential in helping shape past US policy on Syria, said he has been circulating a framework for a proposed executive order that would allow Trump to quickly remove many of the sanctions.

Trump’s move to lift the penalties is aimed at “preventing a failed state and ending perpetual violence,” but some in the administration are trying to “water down” the decision, Moustafa asserted.

Debate within the Trump administration

The initial document sent out last week by the State Department's policy and planning staff proposed a three-phase road map for sanctions relief, starting with short-term waivers. Progress toward additional relief and an outright lifting of penalties in future phases would be tied to tough conditions that generated pushback from some officials.

Removing “Palestinian terror groups” from Syria is first on the list of requirements to get to the second phase. Supporters of sanctions relief say the condition might be impossible, given the subjectivity of determining which groups meet that definition and at what point they can be declared removed.

Other conditions for moving to the second phase are for the new government to take custody of detention facilities housing ISIS fighters in northeast Syria and to carry out a recent deal with the US-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces — which manages the detention facilities — that includes the SDF being incorporated into the Syrian army.

To get to phase three, Syria would be required to join the Abraham Accords — normalized relations with Israel — and to prove that it had destroyed all of the previous government’s chemical weapons.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu previously pushed for the Trump administration not to lift sanctions on Syria. Israel has been suspicious of the new government, although Syrian officials have said publicly that they do not want a conflict with Israel.

Since Assad fell, Israel has launched hundreds of airstrikes and seized a UN-patrolled buffer zone in Syria.

Congressional sanctions on Syria will take much longer to lift

While some of the sanctions can be lifted by executive action, others face a more complex process.

The most difficult could be the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, a wide-reaching set of sanctions passed by Congress in 2019 in response to alleged war crimes by Assad’s government.

It specifically blocks reconstruction activities, and although it can be waived for 180 days by executive order, investors are likely to be wary of reconstruction projects when sanctions could be reinstated after six months.

In a meeting last week in Türkiye with Syria's foreign minister, Rubio and Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham explained that they supported Trump’s call to ease sanctions immediately but that permanent relief would require action by the Syrian government to meet conditions that the president laid out, according to other US officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

“We have a moment here to provide some capability to this new government that should be conditions-based,” Graham said this week. “And I don’t want that moment to pass.”