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Is ‘Prosperity Guardian’ on the Brink of Offensive Operations in the Red Sea?

Satellite image of the Bab-el-Mandab Strait (NASA)
Satellite image of the Bab-el-Mandab Strait (NASA)
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Is ‘Prosperity Guardian’ on the Brink of Offensive Operations in the Red Sea?

Satellite image of the Bab-el-Mandab Strait (NASA)
Satellite image of the Bab-el-Mandab Strait (NASA)

Discussions are heating up about potential actions by the US-led maritime coalition, Operation Prosperity Guardian (OPG), to secure navigation in the Red Sea.

Reports reveal that the US military is actively planning responses to Houthi attacks on commercial ships in the region.

Concerns are growing about the risk of a broader regional conflict, particularly at the Red Sea entrance, a crucial route for global trade.

Officials in President Joe Biden’s administration, according to US-based Politico, are working on response plans, expressing concern about the Gaza conflict escalating into a more extensive and prolonged regional crisis.

Internal discussions are ongoing about scenarios that could involve the US in another Middle East war.

As per a report from Politico, the US military is currently formulating plans to respond to Houthi attacks, including targeting the Yemeni group.

Over the last three months, the US has sent numerous naval ships and fighter jets to the Middle East, hoping to discourage Iran-backed groups from launching attacks that could escalate into a regional war.

However, Axios, a US news website, suggests that achieving this goal is becoming increasingly difficult.

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron stated that if the attacks continue, action will be taken, including the use of British ships.

At the same time, Vice-admiral Brad Cooper, who leads US Naval forces in the Middle East, announced that 22 countries are currently involved in countering Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, with more expected to join.

He clarified that OPG is defensive in nature.

Cooper mentioned that Houthis in Yemen continue their reckless attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea. However, he also noted an improvement in maritime corridors and trade.

Jordanian expert Mohsen Al-Shobaki expressed concern that the situation in the Red Sea could lead to military confrontations.

He highlighted uncertainty about the defensive nature of the coalition, suggesting it might lean towards offensive tasks. Al-Shobaki added that Israel is pushing for escalation.

Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz conveyed to US envoy Amos Hochstein that Israel is willing to work on a diplomatic solution. Still, if none is found, the Israeli army will take action to eliminate the threat, according to Israeli media reports.

Researcher Mohammed Talaat from the National Center for Middle East Studies in Egypt highlighted that current signs point to the US being hesitant and unwilling to get involved in a new conflict in the region, especially with the upcoming US elections, favoring diplomacy as the preferred solution.

However, he also noted that the indicators of danger and the likelihood of escalation have increased significantly.

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Now Syria’s Long-Ruling Baath Party Is Collapsing, Too

This aerial view shows a man crossing a road near defaced billboard atop a building depicting Syria's ousted president Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on December 24, 2024. (AFP)
This aerial view shows a man crossing a road near defaced billboard atop a building depicting Syria's ousted president Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on December 24, 2024. (AFP)
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Now Syria’s Long-Ruling Baath Party Is Collapsing, Too

This aerial view shows a man crossing a road near defaced billboard atop a building depicting Syria's ousted president Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on December 24, 2024. (AFP)
This aerial view shows a man crossing a road near defaced billboard atop a building depicting Syria's ousted president Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on December 24, 2024. (AFP)

A few days after opposition factions in Syria overthrew President Bashar Assad, his ruling Baath party announced it was freezing its activities, marking a stunning change in fortunes for the political group that had ruled for more than six decades.

Many members of the party's leadership have gone into hiding and some have fled the country. In a symbolic move, Syria's new rulers have turned the former party headquarters in Damascus into a center where former members of the army and security forces line up to register their names and hand over their weapons.

Calls are on the rise to officially dissolve the Arab Socialist Baath Party that had ruled Syria since 1963.

Many Syrians - including former party members - say its rule damaged relations with other Arab countries and aided in the spread of corruption that brought the war-torn nation to its knees.

"The party should not only be dissolved, it should go to hell," said Mohammed Hussein Ali, 64, who worked for a state oil company and was a party member for decades until he quit at the start of Syria's anti-government uprising in 2011 that turned into civil war. He never left the country and said he is happy the Baath rule is over.

Men queue with firearms up as former soldiers, police members, and civilians wait at a center for handing over weapons and security registration with the new authorities in Damascus on December 24, 2024. (AFP)

An official with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, the group that led the opposition offensive that overthrew Assad, said no official decision has been made on what to do with the Baath party.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly about the matter, noted that HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa has said that officials who committed crimes against the Syrian people over the past decades will be brought to justice and hinted that they include party members.

The Baath party, whose aim was to unify Arab states in one nation, was founded by two Syrian Arab nationalists, Michel Aflaq and Salaheddine Bitar, in 1947 and at one point ruled two Arab countries, Iraq and Syria.

A rivalry developed between the Syrian branch under Assad and his late father, Hafez, and the one in Iraq under Saddam Hussein, who was ousted from power by a US-led invasion in 2003.

In Syria, the Baath party became inextricably associated with the Assad family, which took power in 1970. For decades, the family used the party and its pan-Arab ideology to control the country. Many senior military jobs were held by members of the family's minority Alawite sect, and party membership was used as a cover to give it a nationalist rather than a sectarian nature.

A former soldier and decades-long Baath party member who came to party headquarters to cut his military ties, Abdul-Rahman Ali, said he had no idea it was founded by Aflaq and Bitar. He had always thought that Hafez Assad was the founder.

"I am happy. We have been liberated from fear," said Ali, 43. "Even the walls had ears. We didn't dare express opinions with anyone." He was referring to the dreaded security and intelligence agencies that detained and tortured people who expressed criticism of Assad or government officials.

Many Syrians were required to join the Baath Vanguards, the party's youth branch, while in elementary school, where Arab nationalist and socialist ideology was emphasized.

It was difficult for people who were not party members to get government jobs or join the army or the security and intelligence services.

In 2012, a year after Syria's uprising began, a paragraph of the constitution stating that the Baath party was the leader of the nation and society was abolished, in a move aimed to appease the public's demand for political reforms. In practice, however, the party remained in control, with members holding the majority of seats in parliament and government.

Another former soldier, who gave only his first name, Ghadir, out of fear of reprisals as a member of the Alawite sect, said he came from a poor family and joined the party so he could enter the military for a stable income.

"You could not take any job if you were not a Baathist," he said.

A member of Syria's transitional government security forces sorts firearms surrendered by former soldiers, police members, and civilians at a center for handing over weapons and security registration with the new authorities in Damascus on December 24, 2024. (AFP)

While few are mourning the party's fall in Syria, some are concerned that the opposition that now controls the country could carry out a purge similar to the one in Iraq after Saddam's fall.

In Syria, a Baath party statement issued three days after Assad's fall called on all members to hand their weapons and public cars to the new authorities.

On Dec. 24, party member and former army colonel Mohammed Merhi was among hundreds who lined up at the former party headquarters and handed over weapons.

Merhi said the Baath party should be given another opportunity because its principles are good but were exploited over decades. But he said he might want to join another party if Syria becomes a multiparty democracy in the future.

He handed over his Soviet Makarov pistol and received a document saying he can now move freely in the country after reconciling with the new authorities.

"I want to become again a normal Syrian citizen and work to build a new Syria," he said.