Iran-Pakistan Flare-up Rooted in Restive Borderlands, Not Mideast Strife

The flag of Iran is seen over its consulate building, with Pakistan's flag in the foreground, after the Pakistani foreign ministry said the country conducted strikes inside Iran targeting separatist militants, two days after Tehran said it attacked Israel-linked militant bases inside Pakistani territory, in Karachi, Pakistan January 18, 2024. REUTERS/Akhtar Soomro
The flag of Iran is seen over its consulate building, with Pakistan's flag in the foreground, after the Pakistani foreign ministry said the country conducted strikes inside Iran targeting separatist militants, two days after Tehran said it attacked Israel-linked militant bases inside Pakistani territory, in Karachi, Pakistan January 18, 2024. REUTERS/Akhtar Soomro
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Iran-Pakistan Flare-up Rooted in Restive Borderlands, Not Mideast Strife

The flag of Iran is seen over its consulate building, with Pakistan's flag in the foreground, after the Pakistani foreign ministry said the country conducted strikes inside Iran targeting separatist militants, two days after Tehran said it attacked Israel-linked militant bases inside Pakistani territory, in Karachi, Pakistan January 18, 2024. REUTERS/Akhtar Soomro
The flag of Iran is seen over its consulate building, with Pakistan's flag in the foreground, after the Pakistani foreign ministry said the country conducted strikes inside Iran targeting separatist militants, two days after Tehran said it attacked Israel-linked militant bases inside Pakistani territory, in Karachi, Pakistan January 18, 2024. REUTERS/Akhtar Soomro

An Iranian strike on Pakistan this week that drew a rapid military riposte and raised fears of greater regional turmoil was driven by Iran's efforts to reinforce its internal security rather than its ambitions for the Middle East, according to three Iranian officials, one Iranian insider and an analyst.
Both the heavily-armed neighbors, oftentimes at odds over instability on their frontier, appear to want to try to contain the strains resulting from the highest-profile cross-border intrusions in recent years, two analysts and two of the officials said.
Iran sent shockwaves around the region on Tuesday with a missile strike against what it described as hardline “Sunni Muslim militants” in southwest Pakistan. Two days later, Pakistan in retaliation attacked what it said were separatist militants in Iran - the first air strike on Iranian soil since the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war.
Tuesday's strike was one of Iran's toughest cross-border assaults on the militant Jaish al-Adl group in Pakistan, which it says has links to ISIS. Many of Jaish's members previously belonged to a now-defunct militant group known as Jundallah that had pledged allegiance to ISIS.
The move deepened worries about Middle East instability that have spread since the Israel-Hamas war erupted in October. Iran-allied militias from Yemen to Lebanon have launched strikes on US and Israeli targets, including on Red Sea shipping, in sympathy with Gaza's Palestinians.
It also came a day after Iran launched attacks in Iraq and Syria, which it said targeted Israeli espionage and ISIS operations, respectively.
But the tit-for-tat blows between Iran and Pakistan occurred far from that war zone, in remote borderlands where separatist groups and Islamist militants have long carried out attacks on government targets, with officials in Pakistan and Iran often accusing each other of complicity in the bloodshed.
Gregory Brew, an analyst at Eurasia Group, an international risk consultancy, said Tehran's strikes were motivated in large part by Iran's rising concerns about the threat of domestic militant violence in the wake of a deadly Jan. 3 bombing claimed by the ISIS group.
"There's a lot of domestic pressure to 'do something,' and the leadership is responding to that pressure," he said.
Spokespeople for the Iranian and Pakistani foreign ministries could not immediately be reached for comment.
'CRUSHING RESPONSE'
Pakistan recalled its ambassador from Iran in protest at Tuesday's attack. For its part, Tehran strongly condemned Pakistan's strikes on Thursday, saying civilians were killed, and summoned Pakistan's most senior diplomat in Iran to give an explanation.
But in their statements, neither government sought to make a link to the Gaza war or to attacks carried out in support of Palestinians by a network of militias allied to Iran.
In a public statement on Thursday, the foreign ministry in Tehran said: "Iran considers the security of its people and its territorial integrity as a red line" and expects "friendly and brotherly" Pakistan to prevent armed militant bases on its soil.
For Iran, the trigger for the flare-up was a devastating bombing on Jan. 3 that killed nearly 100 people at a ceremony in the southeastern city of Kerman to commemorate commander Qassem Soleimani, who was killed by a US drone in 2020.
Soleimani, architect of Iran's drive to extend its influence across the Middle East, was a hero to supporters of the hardline establishment. Tehran publicly vowed revenge against ISIS militant group that claimed responsibility for the bombing.
An Iranian insider close to the country's ruling clerics described the Kerman bombing as "an embarrassment for the leadership" that had shown Iranian security to be vulnerable.
Tuesday's strike was aimed at demonstrating the security organizations' capabilities amid concern among Iranians about a lack of security in the country, the Iranian insider said.
"Such terrorist attacks will get a crushing response from Iran," the insider said.
Iran has also arrested dozens of people linked to ISIS.
On Tuesday, Iranian missiles struck two bases of the Jaish al-Adl (or the Army of Justice) group in Pakistan's southwestern province of Balochistan, which borders Iran.
A senior Iranian security official told Reuters that Iran had provided Pakistan with evidence that Jaish al-Adl was involved in the Kerman attack, coordinating its logistics, and had asked Pakistan to act against it. Iran had obtained evidence that members of the group were among a number of militants planning further attacks in Iran, he said.
"We have warned everyone that any action against our nation, our national security will not go unanswered," the official added, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
IRAN 'LOST PATIENCE'
Iran has been pressing Islamabad for years to address the presence of militants near its border, Brew said. The missile strikes were a sign that Tehran has lost patience, he said.
To be sure, Iran continues to see its role and influence in the Middle East as a central to its security goals.
Brew said that Iran's strike on Pakistan was also intended to signal its resolve, to both enemies and allies, to defend itself in the context of the regional crisis over Gaza.
Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, a Washington-based think tank, said bilateral tension on border security was a longstanding problem for Iran and Pakistan.
De-escalation would be difficult in the immediate term, "given the high tensions and temperatures at play", he said.
Neither country appears poised for conflict, however. In public statements, both countries have observed their attacks were not aimed at each other's nationals, and signaled they don't want escalation.
Kugelman said both countries might welcome bilateral dialogue and potential third party mediation from a country like China, which has good relations and leverage with both countries. "Diplomacy will be critical from here on out," he said.



Syria's Aviation Comeback Struggles amid Regional Turmoil

An airport worker walks on the tarmac next to a Syrian Air plane at the Damascus International Airport on January 7, 2025. (Photo by LOUAI BESHARA / AFP)
An airport worker walks on the tarmac next to a Syrian Air plane at the Damascus International Airport on January 7, 2025. (Photo by LOUAI BESHARA / AFP)
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Syria's Aviation Comeback Struggles amid Regional Turmoil

An airport worker walks on the tarmac next to a Syrian Air plane at the Damascus International Airport on January 7, 2025. (Photo by LOUAI BESHARA / AFP)
An airport worker walks on the tarmac next to a Syrian Air plane at the Damascus International Airport on January 7, 2025. (Photo by LOUAI BESHARA / AFP)

Poor infrastructure, regional conflict and sporadic Israeli airstrikes are holding back more airlines from returning to Syria, industry officials told Reuters, hampering efforts to rebuild a shattered economy after 14 years of civil war.

This month, at least 11 foreign airlines are scheduled to fly into Syria, up from just three a year ago, as sanctions are scaled back following the overthrow of long-time leader Bashar al-Assad in December 2024.

These include the world's largest international carrier, Dubai's Emirates, and the first two European Union-based airlines to fly into Syria since 2011: Romania's Dan Air and Greece's Air Mediterranean, Reuters said.

But airlines such as Royal Jordanian, FlyDubai, Turkish Airlines and Qatar Airways last month were forced to cancel many of their recently launched flights as airspace across the Middle East closed to civil air traffic due to air and missile attacks involving Israel, the US and Iran.

There are dangers closer to home too. Israel carried out strikes against Syrian government forces in southwestern Syria for a second day on Tuesday, vowing to keep the area demilitarized and to protect the Druze minority there.

At the same time, airlines are worried about the state of Syria's aviation infrastructure and management of the industry.

"Progress is needed in regulatory oversight, infrastructure investment, and compliance with international safety and operational standards," industry body the International Air Transport Association said.

Major carriers such as Lufthansa and Air France KLM, which used to fly to Syria pre-war, have visited Damascus airport to assess the infrastructure and former offices, officials at Damascus airport and Syria's aviation regulator told Reuters.

However, both airlines told Reuters they had no current interest in resuming flights.

Small Romanian airline Dan Air launched its Bucharest to Damascus route last month.

"What held back operators until now were the logistical and regulatory complexities," Dan Air CEO Matt Ian David told Reuters, adding that eased sanctions would now make Syria more accessible.

Emirates at the end of May resumed flying over Syria for the first time since the civil war, shaving up to an hour off a Dubai to Beirut flight.

However, several countries, including Britain and the United States, still advise their airlines to avoid flying over Syria. Europe's aviation regulator EASA says "there is a risk of both intentional targeting and misidentification of civil aircraft".

Syria completely reopened its airspace on June 24, its civil air authority said.

Damascus Airport's two runways were bombed during the civil war, but have been repaired. The airport was also looted during the chaos of Assad's fall.

Alaa Sallal, director of public relations at Syria's Civil Aviation Authority, told Reuters a number of airlines had been to inspect security and infrastructure at the airport.

"The airport's construction was dilapidated, the equipment was worn out and some missing," Sallal said.

Radar equipment was lacking, leaving the country reliant on Lebanese or Turkish radar to monitor air traffic, he said.

The head of Syria's General Authority for Civil Aviation earlier this month said it wanted to build new airports in Damascus, Aleppo and in the country's central region. But that will take time and money that the war-ravaged country may struggle to find on its own.

NEW AIRLINES

The mostly Iranian and Iraqi carriers that served Syria through its long conflict have largely stopped flying there, reflecting a new political landscape after Iran- and Russia-backed Assad's overthrow.

The flag carriers of Qatar and Türkiye, countries that backed Syria's rebels through the war, were the first big airlines to resume flights in January under President Ahmed al-Sharaa's new leadership.

Türkiye, a close ally of the new government, has been helping improve Syria's airports, its transport ministry has said.