What is Sudan's Purpose of Diplomatic Approach with Iran?

Sudanese Foreign Minister-designate Sadiq Ali meets in Uganda with Iran's First VP Mohamed Mokhber (SUNA)
Sudanese Foreign Minister-designate Sadiq Ali meets in Uganda with Iran's First VP Mohamed Mokhber (SUNA)
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What is Sudan's Purpose of Diplomatic Approach with Iran?

Sudanese Foreign Minister-designate Sadiq Ali meets in Uganda with Iran's First VP Mohamed Mokhber (SUNA)
Sudanese Foreign Minister-designate Sadiq Ali meets in Uganda with Iran's First VP Mohamed Mokhber (SUNA)

Sudanese and Iranian officials have agreed to expedite their steps to resume relations and restore diplomatic representation.

The recent rapprochement raised questions about the reasons for that path amid the war that has been raging in the country for nine months, claiming the lives of thousands and displacing millions.

On Saturday, Sudan's Foreign Minister-designate Ali al-Sadiq met in Uganda with the Iranian First Vice President, Mohamed Mokhber, on the sidelines of the Non-Aligned Movement summit in Kampala.

A Sudanese statement stated that the officials discussed restoring bilateral relations and accelerating steps to reopen embassies.

Sudan severed its relationship with Iran in 2016, but last October, its foreign ministry announced the resumption of diplomatic relations. No additional steps have been taken since then.

Observers questioned the purpose of the recent Sudanese-Iranian announcement about accelerating efforts to resume bilateral relations.

A former senior official in the Sudanese Islamic Movement believed that the Islamists were working to exploit the relationship with Iran, aiming to weaponize the army.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat, on condition of anonymity, that the army needs to be armed in light of the support Rapid Support Forces is receiving.

The source added that Iran was fully prepared to restore relations with Sudan after the fall of President Omar Al-Bashir's regime.

However, the transitional civil government headed by the Chairman of the Sovereign Council, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok did not want to take the step.

Burhan was conservative to the point of categorically rejecting any step toward restoring relations between the two countries, especially since he began to establish ties with Israel, said the source.

Political analyst Abu Dhar Ali al-Amin said Burhan is facing pressure from the US and the UK in favor of the Forces of Freedom and Change and Rapid Support Forces.

Amin indicated that the rapprochement towards Iran aims to create a balance through Iran, China, and Russia and arm the military.

He believes Sudan is trying to address the issue, which requires effort, time, and persuasive reasons from the Iranians, noting that severing the relations surprised Tehran.

Sudan attributed its severing of relations with Iran in 2016 to its regional interventions on sectarian grounds and its attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran.

The analyst agreed with the Islamist leader that weapons are a direct motive for restoring relations with Iran, noting that "international developments" regarding dealing and resuming regional relations may have formed an incentive for the Sudanese army commander to look in a similar direction.

According to Amin, Iran will provide the Sudanese army with drones to continue its battles against the Rapid Support Forces.



Winter Will Hamper, But Not Halt, Israel’s War on Hezbollah in Lebanon

A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
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Winter Will Hamper, But Not Halt, Israel’s War on Hezbollah in Lebanon

A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)

The ground battles between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon remain intense, with no end in sight for the coming weeks. The arrival of winter will bring weather changes that could slow down operations. but won't stop the fighting.

Experts say that while winter weather, especially rain and fog, can make it harder for fighters and vehicles to move, it has a limited impact on the overall conflict. Air operations, which rely on advanced technology, are less affected.

The region’s mild winter conditions, unlike harsher winters in other countries, will not be a decisive factor in the battle.

Retired General Abdul Rahman Shheitly believes that modern military equipment is designed to work in any weather.

However, he told Asharq Al-Awsat that fog and rain can give both sides an advantage by obscuring visibility, making it harder to spot each other.

This benefits the attacking side, Israel, which has superior technology, while Hezbollah’s movements could be hindered by muddy terrain.

Shheitly also noted that weather affects displaced civilians, which could put pressure on political negotiations to end the conflict.

Retired General Hassan Jouni, former deputy chief of staff of operations in the Lebanese Armed Forces, argued that weather conditions affect the attacker more than the defender. Since Hezbollah is defending its ground, it is less impacted by the cold and rain.

The weather only slightly affects vehicle movement, and does not stop the fighting.

Jouni noted that the region doesn’t experience severe winter weather, so air operations will be unaffected by rain or cold. Modern drones, missiles, and aircraft are designed to function in such conditions, with GPS ensuring precise targeting.

Both Hezbollah and Israel rely heavily on drones. Hezbollah’s drones are noted for their accuracy and ability to avoid Israel’s Iron Dome defense, while Israel uses drones for surveillance and targeted strikes.

More than a year has passed since the conflict began after Hezbollah opened its "support front” for Hamas on October 8, 2023. The fighting, mostly limited to airstrikes during the winter of 2023, escalated with Israel’s ground operation a month ago, though its full goals remain unclear.

As the ground battles continue, Israel seems focused on creating a buffer zone in the South rather than occupying towns. Israel has destroyed over 37 villages to achieve this goal.

The next steps remain uncertain.

Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi has stated that the military is preparing for further ground operations in southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah remains determined to hold its ground and prevent Israeli advances.