On Eve of Ramadan, Jerusalem’s Old City Offers Little Festivity as Gaza War Rages

On the eve of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, Jerusalem’s Old City bears few of its usual hallmarks of festivity.

Nearly half of the grotto-shaped gift shops are sealed behind metal shutters. The narrow streets that run toward Al-Aqsa Mosque, Islam’s third-holiest site, are eerily empty. Absent are the fairy lights and shining lanterns that would usually dangle above hurried worshippers.

Ramadan preparations in Jerusalem, the spiritual heart of the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict, have been subdued because of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, now in its sixth month. With more than 30,000 Palestinians killed in Gaza and hundreds of thousands going hungry, there's little room for expressions of joy.

“This will be the black Ramadan,” Abu Mousam Haddad said in front of his coffee stand near Damascus Gate, one of the Old City’s main entrances.

But over the next few days, attention is likely to shift from Gaza to Al-Aqsa, which has been a frequent flashpoint for quickly escalating Israeli-Palestinian violence in the past.

Hamas, which portrayed its Oct. 7 attack on southern Israel as a battle for Muslim rights at Al-Aqsa, seeks such an eruption now in the hopes of engaging Israeli forces on new fronts and improving its leverage in Gaza ceasefire talks.

Hamas has urged Palestinians across Israel and the occupied West Bank to stream to the mosque during Ramadan to challenge anticipated Israeli restrictions on worship and movement.

Although such restrictions often triggered past clashes, it's not clear if Palestinians will risk confrontations in the current climate in which Israeli forces are clamping down hard on any perceived threats.

“There is great fear among people about what Ramadan will look like this year and how the Israeli police will behave regarding the entry and exit ... into the city,” said Imad Mona, who owns a bookshop outside the Old City.

Israel has limited access to Al-Aqsa to varying degrees over the years, including by barring young men, citing security concerns. The Israeli government has provided few details ahead of this year’s Ramadan, which could start as early as Sunday evening. But it has said some Palestinians from the West Bank will be allowed to pray at Al-Aqsa

In the past, Israeli forces raiding the sacred compound have clashed with stone-throwing Palestinians who barricaded themselves inside, at times to protest Israeli access restrictions. Such clashes have triggered escalations, including Hamas rocket fire, which set off a brief Israel-Hamas war in 2021.

The compound has long been a deeply contested religious space, as it stands on the Temple Mount, which Jews consider their most sacred site. It lies in east Jerusalem, a section of the city Israel occupied during the 1967 Mideast war and later annexed. Palestinians want to make it the capital of their own future state.

The United States and other international mediators had pushed for a Gaza ceasefire to coincide with the start of Ramadan. However, there has been no breakthrough.

Israel remains committed to continuing its invasion and annihilating Hamas, which killed about 1,200 people in Israel and took about 250 hostages on Oct. 7. The group freed dozens of hostages during a November truce, but it refuses to release more without guarantees of a complete end of hostilities.

Most Old City shop owners declined to share their views about the coming Ramadan. Scores of Palestinians have been detained by Israel over social media posts about the war in Gaza since it started.

Some who would speak said that more Israeli police have been deployed in the Old City since October. Young Palestinian men are regularly barred from entering the Al-Aqsa compound for noon prayers on Fridays since the war started, according to the store owners. This has fueled speculation about other possible restrictions. The Israeli police did not respond to requests for comment.

According to Israeli media, the country’s firebrand National Security Minister, Itamar Ben Gvir, has been pushing to keep out all West Bank Palestinians, as well as young men who are among the more than 2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel. His spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.

The Israeli military body in charge of Palestinian affairs in the West Bank, known as COGAT, said Friday that some Muslims from the West Bank would be allowed in from the territory for Ramadan prayers, but it didn't elaborate. Last year, hundreds of thousands were able to enter, most of them women, children and elderly men.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also been vague, saying only that similar numbers of people as last year would be allowed for prayers at Al-Aqsa during the first week of Ramadan. He said this will be evaluated on a weekly basis throughout the month. No further details were made public.

Under an informal arrangement since 1967, the compound is administered by a Jordanian-based Muslim religious body known as the Waqf. Jews are allowed to visit the compound, but not to pray there. The agreement has broken down in recent years as large groups of Jews, including hard-line religious nationalists, have regularly visited. Some among them have attempted to pray at the site.

In the days leading up to Ramadan, West Bank Palestinians have been unsure whether they would be able to attend prayers.

In general, Palestinians in the territory need a permit to enter east Jerusalem, which Israel considers part of its united capital, though its annexation is not recognized by most of the international community. Since Oct. 7, Israel has forbidden Palestinians from entering Jerusalem or any part of Israel.

“It is the dream of every Palestinian, Muslim and Arab to pray in Al-Aqsa Mosque” during Ramadan, said Akram al Baghdadi, a Ramallah resident who has extended family scattered across the West Bank and Gaza.

The holy month also threatens to heighten divisions within Israel’s unruly cabinet, with ministers already split over how to conduct the Gaza war.

In a post on X, Ben Gvir denounced Netanyahu’s decision to allow Palestinians access to Al-Aqsa for Ramadan prayers. He wrote that “Hamas celebrations on the Temple Mount” do not equate to “a complete victory,” a reference to Netanyahu’s wartime battle cry.

Ben Gvir, who has visited the Al-Aqsa compound several times, is also a vocal opponent of any ceasefire arrangement with Hamas. He has repeatedly called for the removal of Palestinians from Gaza and the establishment of Israeli settlements — ideas that most Cabinet members oppose.

Months of conflict and tension have also brought economic hardship, with a lack of tourists and Palestinians shopping in the Old City.

“It's not just my shop that is affected, but all the traders here, too,” said Jihad Abu Salih, a sweets and pastry merchant from the city. “It’s sad.”

Iran's missile barrage this month against Israel, after a similar large-scale attack in April, shows the value, as well as the shortcomings, of US and allied missile defenses in a potential Indo-Pacific conflict with China, analysts say.
Although differences between the two scenarios limit the lessons that can be learnt, the nearly 400 missiles of different types that Iran has fired at Israel this year offer the United States and China some idea of what works and what does not.
For Washington, the main takeaway from Iran's Oct. 1 attacks - the largest sample yet of ballistic missiles fired against modern defenses - could be that Beijing's missiles would be more difficult to intercept than Iran's and that the ability to strike back would be needed to deter a mass attack, said Collin Koh of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
"If we look purely through the lenses of deterrence, no longer can one pin hopes on deterrence by denial only - that is, the hope that effective defenses can blunt the efficacy of missile strikes," Koh said. "Deterrence by punishment might have to become normative going forward."
There is no immediate threat of missile conflict in the Indo-Pacific region. The distances, thousands of kilometers, are greater than in the Middle East. China's weapons are more advanced, including maneuvering warheads and precision guidance. And the target areas are scattered across the region, making a massed attack more difficult.
China's military launched a new round of war games near Taiwan on Monday, saying it was a warning to the "separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces". A Taiwan security source said there were so signs so far of any missile launches.
The United States has developed and deployed new weapons in the region this year to counter China, including the AIM-174B air-to-air missile and the ground-based Typhon missile battery in the Philippines, which can launch SM-6 and Tomahawk missiles.
The US Indo-Pacific Command and China's Ministry of Defense did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
CHINA'S MISSILES LONGER-RANGE, LESS ACCURATE
On the other hand, simply being better informed about how offensive and defensive systems perform after Iran's missile fusillades - many were intercepted - may reduce the chance of conflict, said Ankit Panda of the US-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"Any military force planning long-range missile strikes will need to plan around the possible effects of missile defenses," Panda said. "Of course, without clarity on how well a given missile defense system might perform, this could lead to massive escalation."
Israel's layered air and missile defenses - from its long-range Arrow systems to the Iron Dome shield meant to handle slower, less complex threats - are tailored to the threats it faces: guided ballistic missiles from powers such as Iran mixed with unguided rockets launched from just over Israel's borders.
The picture is much different in the Indo-Pacific region for the US and its allies, which use the Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Patriot, THAAD and sea-based Aegis systems for missile defense.
The accuracy of China's DF-26, its most numerous conventional intermediate-range ballistic missile, is estimated to be as good as 150 m (500 feet), according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Missile Defense Project. Its DF-21 is shorter-ranged, though some variants have an accuracy of 50 m.
Both can hit most US and allied targets in the region. The DF-26 can reach Guam, the site of major US military facilities. The Pentagon has estimated that China may have several hundred of the missiles.
By contrast, Iran's missiles such as the Fattah-1 are theoretically more accurate - within tens of meters - but are much shorter-ranged. The number of these newer missiles is not public, but US Air Force General Kenneth McKenzie told Congress last year that Iran had more than 3,000 ballistic missiles of all types.
China's capabilities outstrip Iran's in other ways, said Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Missile attacks would most likely be coordinated with anti-satellite strikes and cyberwarfare, both designed to complicate defense.
"Western (integrated air and missile defense) systems in the Indo-Pacific would have a much tougher time defeating a large Chinese missile strike, comprising hundreds or even thousands of missiles, compared to what the Iranians are capable of," Davis said.

On Eve of Ramadan, Jerusalem’s Old City Offers Little Festivity as Gaza War Rages