Türkiye, Iran and Morocco Increase their Influence in the Sahel  

Nigerien security officers face demonstrators gathered in front of the French base in Niamey on September 2. (AFP)
Nigerien security officers face demonstrators gathered in front of the French base in Niamey on September 2. (AFP)
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Türkiye, Iran and Morocco Increase their Influence in the Sahel  

Nigerien security officers face demonstrators gathered in front of the French base in Niamey on September 2. (AFP)
Nigerien security officers face demonstrators gathered in front of the French base in Niamey on September 2. (AFP)

Türkiye, Iran and Morocco are stepping up their initiatives towards ruling military regimes in the African Sahel, seeking to diversify their partners, in the wake of France's withdrawal from the region.

Standing in front of the Burkina Faso television cameras, the director of the Turkish Space Agency displayed a catalog of fighter planes and combat helicopters, which is tempting for military regimes fighting terrorist groups, AFP said in a report on Monday.

The Burkinabe Foreign Minister, Karamoko Jean Marie Traoré, then reminded him of one of the mantras of the Sahelian regimes whose armies are underequipped: “For us it is a question of developing endogenous capacities in order to reduce our dependence.”

They are dependent on foreign forces, notably from France and other Western countries, which deployed in the region more than a decade ago and are reluctant to deliver offensive equipment to armies accused of committing abuses against civilian populations.

And while the French troops were packing their bags to leave the Sahel region, combat drones delivered by Türkiye became the centerpieces of Mali and Burkina Faso’s armies, which are both engaged in conflicts.

In early 2024, Mali received a new batch of Turkish Baykar drones, prized for their performance, earning the CEO of the manufacturing company, Haluk Bayraktar, a decoration in Ouagadougou in April bestowed by Burkina's strongman, Captain Ibrahim Traoré.

“The defense sector is the driving force behind the Turkish foreign policy in African countries,” said Federico Donelli, a political scientist and author of the book “Turkey in Africa.”

He explained that while Moscow is imposing itself as the main ally of military regimes in the Sahel region, Ankara is pursuing an “invasive” policy by trying to position itself as an alternative to both the Europeans and Russia.

According to the Institute for International Political Studies – ISPI, former Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu “was the first high-level international figure to meet the military council in Mali after the August 2020 coup.”

It added that Ankara has adopted a conciliatory position with the military council in Niger, which borders Libya, where Ankara has many interests.

Ankara is also developing a project for a trans-Saharan corridor linking the Gulf of Guinea countries to Algeria, another North African stronghold of Turkish investment, according to Donelli.

Competing with Morocco, Iran

Morocco had kicked off a rival project. In September, Rabat said it offers to “make its road, port and rail infrastructures available to the Sahel countries, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali and Niger,” to strengthen their international trade.

In January 2024, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso said they withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

“Türkiye has military capabilities. We have had excellent relations with Morocco since independence and they are more about economic development,” according to a government source in Niger.

Morocco and Türkiye, which enjoy longstanding influence in the region, could face new competition from Iran.

Since 2020, Tehran has increased its influence in the region, particularly amid the coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.

In October, Tehran signed several cooperation agreements with Burkina Faso in the fields of energy, urban planning, higher education and construction.

At the end of January, Tehran, a producer of combat drones, announced the establishment of two universities in Mali, and the signing of various cooperation agreements.

Thierry Coville from the Paris-based Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS) said the Iranians sign dozens of agreements and none of them work. “They don't have the funding to support deals, or to compete seriously with Türkiye or Saudi Arabia,” he added.

But could Iran, which has increased its production of enriched uranium to 60%, eventually covet the uranium reserves of Niger that have been exploited by the French company Orano?

“This is our resource; we can sell it to anyone we want,” said a Nigerian government source.



What Ignited the Deadly California Wildfires? Investigators Consider an Array of Possibilities

 A helicopter drops water on the Palisades Fire in Mandeville Canyon, Friday, Jan. 10, 2025, in Los Angeles. (AP)
A helicopter drops water on the Palisades Fire in Mandeville Canyon, Friday, Jan. 10, 2025, in Los Angeles. (AP)
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What Ignited the Deadly California Wildfires? Investigators Consider an Array of Possibilities

 A helicopter drops water on the Palisades Fire in Mandeville Canyon, Friday, Jan. 10, 2025, in Los Angeles. (AP)
A helicopter drops water on the Palisades Fire in Mandeville Canyon, Friday, Jan. 10, 2025, in Los Angeles. (AP)

Investigators are considering an array of possible ignition sources for the huge fires that have killed at least 11 people and destroyed thousands of homes and businesses in the Los Angeles area.

In hilly, upscale Pacific Palisades, home to Hollywood stars like Jamie Lee Curtis and Billy Crystal who lost houses in the fire, officials have placed the origin of the wind-whipped blaze behind a home on Piedra Morada Drive, which sits above a densely wooded arroyo.

While lightning is the most common source of fires in the US, according to the National Fire Protection Association, investigators were able to rule that out quickly. There were no reports of lightning in the Palisades area or the terrain around the Eaton Fire, which started in east Los Angeles County and has also destroyed hundreds of homes.

The next two most common causes: fires intentionally set, and those sparked by utility lines.

John Lentini, owner of Scientific Fire Analysis in Florida, who has investigated large fires in California including the Oakland Hills Fire in 1991, said the size and scope of the blaze doesn’t change the approach to finding out what caused it.

“This was once a small fire,” Lentini said. “People will focus on where the fire started, determine the origin and look around the origin and determine the cause.”

So far there has been no official indication of arson in either blaze, and utility lines have not yet been identified as a cause either.

Utilities are required to report to the California Public Utilities Commission when they know of “electric incidents potentially associated with a wildfire,” Terrie Prosper, the commission's communications director, said via email. CPUC staff then investigate to see if there were violations of state law.

The 2017 Thomas Fire, one of the largest fires in state history, was sparked by Southern California Edison power lines that came into contact during high wind, investigators determined. The blaze killed two people and charred more than 440 square miles (1,140 square kilometers).

On Friday, Southern California Edison filed a report with the CPUC related to the Eaton Fire in the hills near Pasadena, an area the utility serves.

Edison said it has not received any suggestions that its equipment was involved in the ignition of that fire, but that it filed the report with state utilities regulators out of “an abundance of caution” after receiving evidence preservation notices from insurance company lawyers.

“Preliminary analysis by SCE of electrical circuit information for the energized transmission lines going through the area for 12 hours prior to the reported start time of the fire shows no interruptions or electrical or operational anomalies until more than one hour after the reported start time of the fire,” the utility reported.

While lightning, arson and utility lines are the most common causes, debris burning and fireworks are also common causes.

But fires are incited by myriad sources, including accidents.

In 2021, a couple's gender reveal stunt started a large fire that torched close to 36 square miles (about 90 square kilometers) of terrain, destroyed five homes and 15 other buildings and claimed the life of a firefighter, Charlie Morton.

The Eaton and Palisades fires were still burning with little containment on Friday. Winds softened, but there was no rain in the forecast as the flames moved through miles of dry landscape.

“It’s going to go out when it runs out of fuel, or when the weather stops,” Lentini said. “They’re not going to put that thing out until it’s ready to go out.”