Türkiye's Local Vote a Test for Erdogan and Rival Imamoglu

Official ballots are displayed on a table during the Turkish municipal elections, in Istanbul on March 31, 2024. (AFP)
Official ballots are displayed on a table during the Turkish municipal elections, in Istanbul on March 31, 2024. (AFP)
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Türkiye's Local Vote a Test for Erdogan and Rival Imamoglu

Official ballots are displayed on a table during the Turkish municipal elections, in Istanbul on March 31, 2024. (AFP)
Official ballots are displayed on a table during the Turkish municipal elections, in Istanbul on March 31, 2024. (AFP)

Türkiye holds municipal elections across 81 provinces on Sunday March 31, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's AK Party (AKP) aiming to reclaim cities it lost in 2019, including the country's largest city of Istanbul and the capital Ankara.

On Sunday, polling stations opened at 7 a.m. and will close at 4 p.m. in eastern provinces and from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. in the rest of the country. Initial results are expected by 10 p.m. (1900 GMT) on Sunday.

Analysts see the vote as a nationwide gauge of Erdogan's support and the opposition's durability, especially that of Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu of Istanbul. A tight race is expected in the city that is home to more than 16 million people and drives more than a quarter of the nation's GDP.

WHAT'S AT STAKE?

In the last local vote in 2019, the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) shocked Erdogan when it prevailed in Istanbul and Ankara and ended more than two decades of rule by the AKP and its Islamist predecessors.

Erdogan, who has ruled Türkiye for more than two decades and campaigned hard for the AKP in recent weeks, launched his political career as mayor of Istanbul in 1994.

Almost 11 million people are eligible to vote in the city, the Supreme Election Council says. Turnout in both general and local elections is very high in Türkiye at close to 90%.

Incumbent CHP Mayor Imamoglu's main challenger is the AKP's Murat Kurum, a former government minister. Polls give Imamoglu a slight edge.

Last May, Erdogan was re-elected president and his alliance won a majority in parliament in tight general elections - a result that splintered and disheartened an alliance of the CHP and other opposition parties.

WHY DOES IT MATTER?

The budget of Istanbul metropolitan municipality dwarfs all other 80 cities in the country at 516 billion lira ($16.05 billion) in 2024, including its subsidiaries. The budget of the second city, Ankara, is 92 billion.

Controlling big cities and their budgets can give parties say over financing, contracts and job creation, boosting their popularity on the national stage.

Istanbul holds special importance for Erdogan as he rose to the national political stage during his time as mayor between 1994 and 1998.

Imamoglu has emerged as the opposition's main alternative to Erdogan. If he wins a second mayoral term, he would very likely run in the next presidential vote, analysts say, while a loss could stunt his career and leave the opposition in further disarray.

For Erdogan, regaining Istanbul and Ankara would bolster his pursuit of a new constitution that could potentially extend his rule beyond 2028, which marks the end of his current term, analysts say.

Under the existing constitution, the presidency is limited to two terms. Erdogan secured a third term last year thanks to a legal loophole resulting from the transition to a presidential system in 2018, as his initial term was served under the previous system.

"The electoral test is also significant for Erdogan's pursuit of a new constitution (or constitutional amendments) to side-step presidential term limits and remove the remaining elements of judicial independence," said Wolfango Piccoli, co-President of Teneo.

Who are the candidates?

MURAT KURUM, AKP, ISTANBUL:

Kurum, 47, was environment and urbanization minister from July 2018 until last June, leaving the post after the general elections in 2023. He was then elected as a member of parliament for Istanbul.

Born in Ankara, Kurum served at the state mass housing agency TOKI from 2005 to 2009 and later as the general manager of Emlak Konut, a government-run real estate investment trust.

EKREM IMAMOGLU, CHP, ISTANBUL:

Imamoglu, 52, originally from the Black Sea city of Trabzon, was a district mayor in the city before becoming Istanbul mayor.

He won the 2019 election in Istanbul with the backing of an alliance of the CHP, the nationalist IYI Party, and the pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (DEM), which is now called DEM. This year IYI and DEM are running their own candidates. Many of Türkiye's Kurds are set to put aside party loyalty and back Imamoglu on Sunday, according to pollsters.

CHP'S MANSUR YAVAS, AKP'S TURGUT ALTINOK:

Pollsters say Ankara's incumbent Mayor Mansur Yavas, a former district mayor in Ankara, is comfortably ahead of AKP challenger Turgut Altinok, another former district mayor.

OTHER PROVINCES:

Turks will also vote in the other 79 provinces of the country, casting four votes in total: one for the mayor of their province, one for their district mayor, one for the district council and another for the local administrator of their neighborhood.

Other competitive cities include CHP-run Antalya, Bursa, and Adana.



Takeaways from Trump’s Meeting with Zelenskyy and Europeans: Praise, Security Talks, More Meetings 

United States President Donald J Trump (R) meets Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, USA, 18 August 2025. (EPA)
United States President Donald J Trump (R) meets Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, USA, 18 August 2025. (EPA)
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Takeaways from Trump’s Meeting with Zelenskyy and Europeans: Praise, Security Talks, More Meetings 

United States President Donald J Trump (R) meets Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, USA, 18 August 2025. (EPA)
United States President Donald J Trump (R) meets Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, USA, 18 August 2025. (EPA)

During their second meeting in the Oval Office this year, President Donald Trump said the US would be willing to support European efforts to police any peace deal in Ukraine, while its leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed his gratitude and wore dressier clothes.

And Vice President JD Vance kept his mouth shut.

As Trump hosted Zelenskyy and top European leaders to energize months of stalled US-led efforts to halt Russia's 3 1/2-year-old war, the tone and style of the sit-down was far different than when Ukraine's president was hounded out of the White House in February.

Following the talks, Trump called and spoke at length to Russian President Vladimir Putin who got the red carpet treatment at a summit with Trump last Friday in Alaska, to discuss the extraordinary gathering of allies. Trump said he would now work to arrange a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin.

Here are key takeaways:

Trump says the US could back security guarantees for Ukraine A central question for peace talks is how to prevent further Russian aggression in the future.

Trump has ruled out allowing Ukraine to join NATO, which would extend the military alliance’s protection to the besieged country. He did, however, express support for security guarantees for Ukraine though details remain vague.

European countries “want to give protection and they feel very strongly about it and we’ll help them out with that,” Trump said.

That pleased Zelenskyy, who said the US was offering "such (a) strong signal.”

With Europeans looking to set up a force that could backstop any peace agreement in Ukraine, Trump suggested that Putin would be open to accepting security guarantees. His special envoy, Steve Witkoff, said Sunday that Moscow was open to accepting NATO-style protections for Ukraine.

European leaders applauded that notion, and the larger meaning it would carry.

“When we speak about security guarantees, we speak about the whole security of the European continent," French President Emmanuel Macron said.

Macron said talks to determine what the US is willing to provide will start as soon as Tuesday.

European leaders praise Trump but say tough work is still ahead The Europeans came to show a united front on Ukraine, and many used public comments to heap praise on Trump. That was striking given tensions over Trump’s threats to impose steep tariffs and other issues.

Ahead of their meeting, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte called Trump “dear Donald” and said of fighting in Ukraine: “If we play this well, we could end it.” In an interview later with Fox News Channel, Rutte called Trump “amazing” and said potential swaps of Ukrainian territory weren’t discussed.

“First, we need full clarity on security guidelines,” Rutte said. Though Ukraine might not have NATO membership, he noted, there would be discussions for security guarantees similar to those extended to members of the alliance.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said after the meeting that there was “real progress” and a “real sense of unity.”

Before the leaders spoke privately at the White House, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said all the parties were working together on “a just and lasting peace.”

Offering a more measured tone was German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who said “the path is open now” to halting the fighting but next steps are “more complicated.”

“Let’s try to put pressure on Russia,” Merz said, adding that he would like to see a ceasefire come together.

Trump was noncommittal, saying, “If we can do the ceasefire, great,” but suggested it was far from a dealbreaker. He dropped his push for a ceasefire after Friday's summit, aligning with Putin’s position that negotiations should focus on a long-term peace settlement instead.

The good feelings extended to Zelenskyy and Trump. After Ukraine’s leader praised the “very good conversation” with Trump, the US president responded, “Great remarks. I appreciated it.”

Speaking to reporters Monday night, Merz said the Russian demand that Ukraine give up unconquered parts of its eastern Donbas region to end the fighting would be equivalent to the US giving up Florida.

More formal attire — and a far different reception — for Zelenskyy The meeting with Trump in the Oval Office on Monday was dramatically different than six months ago, when Trump and Vance harangued Zelenskyy for not being thankful enough for US military support.

Trump even seemed to relish a reporter from a conservative outlet asking then why Zelenskyy wasn’t wearing a suit at the White House.

Ukraine's leader came prepared this time, wearing a black shirt and blazer. The same reporter told Zelenskyy, “You look fabulous,” and Trump responded, “I said the same thing.”

Then Trump said to Zelenskyy: “That’s the one that attacked you last time.” The Ukrainian president said he remembered, then playfully needled his questioner.

“You are in the same suit,” Zelenskyy said as laughter rippled through the room. “I changed. You did not.”

Ukraine's president usually appears in a trademark hoodie or T-shirt — a show of solidarity with Ukrainian forces on the front lines.

Zelenskyy also expressed gratitude to the US and European allies for supporting his country, and repeatedly thanked first lady Melania Trump for sending a letter to Putin about stopping the killing of children during the war.

In the Oval Office, Vance gave no public comments.

Next steps in the negotiations turn back to Putin Trump, who bragged on numerous occasions during the campaign that he could settle Russia's war in Ukraine in a day, said repeatedly Monday that it was far more complicated than he ever thought it would be.

But he also suggested — likely implausibly — that the fighting that has raged for years could wind down quickly.

“A week or two weeks, we’ll know whether we’re going to solve this, or if this horrible fighting is going to continue,” said Trump, even suggesting the issues yet to be hammered out weren’t “overly complex.”

Still, much remains unresolved, including red lines that are incompatible, like whether Ukraine will cede any land to Russia, the future of Ukraine’s army and whether the country will ultimately have lasting and meaningful security guarantees.

Trump said he had begun arrangements for a face-to-face meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy. But Russian foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov said only that Putin and Trump had a 40-minute phone call and “spoke in favor” of continuing direct talks between the sides, Russian state news agency Tass reported.

Outside the White House, Zelenskyy said no date had been set for such a meeting but that the US suggested it be as soon as possible.

“But for that, agreement of all sides is needed,” he said. He added that the question of territory “is a matter that we will leave between me and Putin.”

Though many European leaders oppose forgoing a possible ceasefire on the road to seeking lasting peace, they have supported a meeting by Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin in the meantime. Macron suggested that another summit could feature the three presidents and also top European leaders.

“The idea of trilateral meeting is very important, because this is the only way to fix it,” the French president said.