What Happens after ICC Prosecutor Seeks Warrants in Israel-Gaza Conflict?

 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrives to his Likud party faction meeting at the Knesset, Israel's parliament, in Jerusalem May 20, 2024 (Reuters)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrives to his Likud party faction meeting at the Knesset, Israel's parliament, in Jerusalem May 20, 2024 (Reuters)
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What Happens after ICC Prosecutor Seeks Warrants in Israel-Gaza Conflict?

 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrives to his Likud party faction meeting at the Knesset, Israel's parliament, in Jerusalem May 20, 2024 (Reuters)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrives to his Likud party faction meeting at the Knesset, Israel's parliament, in Jerusalem May 20, 2024 (Reuters)

The International Criminal Court prosecutor's office has requested arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his defense chief, and also for three Hamas leaders for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity. Here is a look at what happens next, and how the ICC prosecutor's move might impact diplomatic relations and other court cases focused on Gaza.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT AT ICC?

Prosecutor Karim Khan's request goes to a pre-trial chamber. The chamber will be composed of three magistrates: presiding judge Iulia Motoc of Romania, Mexican judge Maria del Socorro Flores Liera and judge Reine Alapini-Gansou of Benin. There is no deadline for judges to decide whether to issue arrest warrants. In previous cases, judges have taken anywhere from just over a month to several months.

If the judges agree there are "reasonable grounds" to believe war crimes or crimes against humanity have been committed, they will issue an arrest warrant. The warrant must name the person, the specific crimes for which an arrest is sought and a statement of facts which are alleged to constitute those crimes.

Judges can amend arrest warrant requests and grant only portions of what the prosecutor is seeking. Charges can also be changed and updated later.

Israeli and Hamas leaders have dismissed allegations of committing war crimes, and representatives of both sides criticized Khan's decision.

WILL NETANYAHU AND THE HAMAS LEADERS BE ARRESTED?

The ICC's founding Rome statute combined with jurisprudence from past cases involving arrest warrants against sitting heads of state oblige all 124 ICC signatory states to arrest and hand over any individual subject to an ICC arrest warrant if they set foot on their territory. However, the court has no means to enforce an arrest. The sanction for not arresting someone is a referral back to the ICC's assembly of member states and ultimately a referral to the U.N. Security Council.

CAN AN ICC INVESTIGATION OR WARRANT BE PAUSED?

The court's rules allow for the UN Security Council to adopt a resolution that would pause or defer an investigation or a prosecution for a year, with the possibility of renewing that indefinitely.

In past cases where a state has ignored its obligation to arrest an individual facing an ICC warrant, they have received a procedural slap on the wrist at most.

CAN NETANYAHU AND HAMAS CHIEF YAHYA SINWAR STILL TRAVEL?

Yes they can. Neither the application for a warrant nor the issuance of an ICC arrest warrant curbs an individual's freedom to travel. However, once an arrest warrant has been issued, they risk arrest if they travel to an ICC signatory state, which may influence their decision-making.

There are no restrictions on political leaders, lawmakers or diplomats from meeting individuals with an ICC arrest warrant against them. Politically, however, the optics of this may be bad.

WILL THIS APPLICATION FOR WARRANTS INFLUENCE OTHER CASES?

Not directly, but perhaps indirectly. The ICC application is a separate matter to, for example, court cases demanding an arms embargo against Israel or South Africa's attempts at the International Court of Justice to seek a halt to Israel's offensive on Rafah.

If the judges decide there are reasonable grounds to believe Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant are committing war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza, it could strengthen legal challenges demanding an arms embargo elsewhere as numerous states have provisions against selling arms to states who might use them in ways that violate international humanitarian law.



The Science behind the Powerful Earthquake in Myanmar and Thailand

People drive on a motorbike past a collapsed building in Mandalay on March 28, 2025, after an earthquake in central Myanmar. (AFP)
People drive on a motorbike past a collapsed building in Mandalay on March 28, 2025, after an earthquake in central Myanmar. (AFP)
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The Science behind the Powerful Earthquake in Myanmar and Thailand

People drive on a motorbike past a collapsed building in Mandalay on March 28, 2025, after an earthquake in central Myanmar. (AFP)
People drive on a motorbike past a collapsed building in Mandalay on March 28, 2025, after an earthquake in central Myanmar. (AFP)

A powerful earthquake of magnitude 7.7 centered in the Sagaing region near the Myanmar city of Mandalay caused extensive damage in that country and also shook neighboring Thailand on Friday.

HOW VULNERABLE IS MYANMAR TO EARTHQUAKES?

Myanmar lies on the boundary between two tectonic plates and is one of the world's most seismically active countries, although large and destructive earthquakes have been relatively rare in the Sagaing region.

"The plate boundary between the India Plate and Eurasia Plate runs approximately north-south, cutting through the middle of the country," said Joanna Faure Walker, a professor and earthquake expert at University College London.

She said the plates move past each other horizontally at different speeds. While this causes "strike slip" quakes that are normally less powerful than those seen in "subduction zones" like Sumatra, where one plate slides under another, they can still reach magnitudes of 7 to 8.

WHY WAS FRIDAY'S QUAKE SO DAMAGING?

Sagaing has been hit by several quakes in recent years, with a 6.8 magnitude event causing at least 26 deaths and dozens of injuries in late 2012.

But Friday's event was "probably the biggest" to hit Myanmar's mainland in three quarters of a century, said Bill McGuire, another earthquake expert at UCL.

Roger Musson, honorary research fellow at the British Geological Survey, told Reuters that the shallow depth of the quake meant the damage would be more severe. The quake's epicenter was at a depth of just 10 km (6.2 miles), according to the United States Geological Survey.

"This is very damaging because it has occurred at a shallow depth, so the shockwaves are not dissipated as they go from the focus of the earthquake up to the surface. The buildings received the full force of the shaking."

"It's important not to be focused on epicenters because the seismic waves don't radiate out from the epicenter - they radiate out from the whole line of the fault," he added.

HOW PREPARED WAS MYANMAR?

The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program said on Friday that fatalities could be between 10,000 and 100,000 people, and the economic impact could be as high as 70% of Myanmar's GDP.

Musson said such forecasts are based on data from past earthquakes and on Myanmar's size, location and overall quake readiness.

The relative rarity of large seismic events in the Sagaing region - which is close to heavily populated Mandalay - means that infrastructure had not been built to withstand them. That means the damage could end up being far worse.

Musson said that the last major quake to hit the region was in 1956, and homes are unlikely to have been built to withstand seismic forces as powerful as those that hit on Friday.

"Most of the seismicity in Myanmar is further to the west whereas this is running down the center of the country," he said.