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What's in Israel's Three-Phase Gaza Ceasefire Roadmap

US President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the conviction of former US President Donald J. Trump on 34 felony counts in his hush money trial, before announcing a proposal for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, DC, USA, 31 May 2024. EPA/MICHAEL REYNOLDS / POOL
US President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the conviction of former US President Donald J. Trump on 34 felony counts in his hush money trial, before announcing a proposal for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, DC, USA, 31 May 2024. EPA/MICHAEL REYNOLDS / POOL
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What's in Israel's Three-Phase Gaza Ceasefire Roadmap

US President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the conviction of former US President Donald J. Trump on 34 felony counts in his hush money trial, before announcing a proposal for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, DC, USA, 31 May 2024. EPA/MICHAEL REYNOLDS / POOL
US President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the conviction of former US President Donald J. Trump on 34 felony counts in his hush money trial, before announcing a proposal for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, DC, USA, 31 May 2024. EPA/MICHAEL REYNOLDS / POOL

US President Joe Biden unveiled a three-phase Israeli proposal to end the war in Gaza on Friday, which includes a ceasefire and the release of hostages held by Hamas, said AFP.
Here are the key elements of the "comprehensive" plan that the 81-year-old called a "roadmap to an enduring ceasefire."
- Phase One -
Biden said the first phase includes a "full and complete ceasefire" lasting six weeks, with Israeli forces withdrawing from "all populated areas of Gaza."
Hamas would release "a number" of hostages captured in the October 7 attacks on Israel, including women, the elderly and the wounded. The remains of some hostages who had been killed would also be returned.
US hostages held by Hamas would also be freed, Biden said, adding that "we want them home."
Hundreds of Palestinian prisoners would be released in exchange.
Palestinian civilians would be allowed to return to their "homes and neighborhoods" throughout Gaza, including in the north, which has been devastated by months of Israeli bombing.
Humanitarian aid would "surge" to 600 trucks a day entering Gaza, while the international community would deliver hundreds of thousands of temporary shelters and housing units.
During the initial six-week period, Israel and Hamas would "negotiate the necessary arrangements to get to phase two, which is a permanent end to hostilities."
The ceasefire would also be extended if the negotiations continue, with mediators the United States, Egypt and Qatar working to ensure they continue, Biden said.
Phase Two
Israeli forces would completely withdraw from Gaza under the second phase of the plan, lasting around another six weeks.
Hamas would release "all remaining living hostages" including male Israeli soldiers. This has been a key sticking point for Hamas in the past.
If both sides keep to the deal it will lead to the "cessation of hostilities permanently," Biden quoted the Israeli proposal as saying.
Phase Three
A major reconstruction and stabilization plan for Gaza would begin, backed by the US and the international community.
Homes, schools and hospitals would be rebuilt, Biden said. He would also work with regional partners to ensure it happens in a way that "does not allow Hamas to re-arm."
The reconstruction phase would take between three and five years, a senior US official said.
The final remains of any hostages who had been killed would be returned in the third phase.
What if it goes wrong?
Biden said that if Hamas "fails to fulfill its commitments under the deal, Israel can resume military operations."
But he added that Egypt and Qatar would work to make Hamas stick to the terms, while the United States would do the same for Israel.

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Winter Will Hamper, But Not Halt, Israel’s War on Hezbollah in Lebanon

A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
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Winter Will Hamper, But Not Halt, Israel’s War on Hezbollah in Lebanon

A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)

The ground battles between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon remain intense, with no end in sight for the coming weeks. The arrival of winter will bring weather changes that could slow down operations. but won't stop the fighting.

Experts say that while winter weather, especially rain and fog, can make it harder for fighters and vehicles to move, it has a limited impact on the overall conflict. Air operations, which rely on advanced technology, are less affected.

The region’s mild winter conditions, unlike harsher winters in other countries, will not be a decisive factor in the battle.

Retired General Abdul Rahman Shheitly believes that modern military equipment is designed to work in any weather.

However, he told Asharq Al-Awsat that fog and rain can give both sides an advantage by obscuring visibility, making it harder to spot each other.

This benefits the attacking side, Israel, which has superior technology, while Hezbollah’s movements could be hindered by muddy terrain.

Shheitly also noted that weather affects displaced civilians, which could put pressure on political negotiations to end the conflict.

Retired General Hassan Jouni, former deputy chief of staff of operations in the Lebanese Armed Forces, argued that weather conditions affect the attacker more than the defender. Since Hezbollah is defending its ground, it is less impacted by the cold and rain.

The weather only slightly affects vehicle movement, and does not stop the fighting.

Jouni noted that the region doesn’t experience severe winter weather, so air operations will be unaffected by rain or cold. Modern drones, missiles, and aircraft are designed to function in such conditions, with GPS ensuring precise targeting.

Both Hezbollah and Israel rely heavily on drones. Hezbollah’s drones are noted for their accuracy and ability to avoid Israel’s Iron Dome defense, while Israel uses drones for surveillance and targeted strikes.

More than a year has passed since the conflict began after Hezbollah opened its "support front” for Hamas on October 8, 2023. The fighting, mostly limited to airstrikes during the winter of 2023, escalated with Israel’s ground operation a month ago, though its full goals remain unclear.

As the ground battles continue, Israel seems focused on creating a buffer zone in the South rather than occupying towns. Israel has destroyed over 37 villages to achieve this goal.

The next steps remain uncertain.

Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi has stated that the military is preparing for further ground operations in southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah remains determined to hold its ground and prevent Israeli advances.