Netanyahu Dissolved His War Cabinet. How Will That Affect Ceasefire Efforts?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a press conference at the Sheba Tel-HaShomer Medical Center, in Ramat Gan on June 8, 2024 amid the ongoing conflict in the Palestinian territory between Israel and Hamas. (AFP)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a press conference at the Sheba Tel-HaShomer Medical Center, in Ramat Gan on June 8, 2024 amid the ongoing conflict in the Palestinian territory between Israel and Hamas. (AFP)
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Netanyahu Dissolved His War Cabinet. How Will That Affect Ceasefire Efforts?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a press conference at the Sheba Tel-HaShomer Medical Center, in Ramat Gan on June 8, 2024 amid the ongoing conflict in the Palestinian territory between Israel and Hamas. (AFP)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a press conference at the Sheba Tel-HaShomer Medical Center, in Ramat Gan on June 8, 2024 amid the ongoing conflict in the Palestinian territory between Israel and Hamas. (AFP)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu disbanded his war cabinet Monday, a move that consolidates his influence over the Israel-Hamas war and likely diminishes the odds of a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip anytime soon.

Netanyahu announced the step days after his chief political rival, Benny Gantz, withdrew from the three-member war cabinet. Gantz, a retired general and member of parliament, was widely seen as a more moderate voice.

Major war policies will now be solely approved by Netanyahu's security cabinet — a larger body that is dominated by hard-liners who oppose the US-backed ceasefire proposal and want to press ahead with the war.

Netanyahu is expected to consult on some decisions with close allies in ad-hoc meetings, said an Israeli official who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief the media.

These closed-door meetings could blunt some of the influence of the hard-liners. But Netanyahu himself has shown little enthusiasm for the ceasefire plan and his reliance on the full security cabinet could give him cover to prolong a decision.

Here’s key background about the war cabinet, and what disbanding it means for ceasefire prospects:

Why did Gantz join and then quit the war cabinet? The war cabinet was formed after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel when Gantz, an opposition party leader, joined with Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in a show of unity.

At the time, Gantz demanded that a small decision-making body steer the war in a bid to sideline far-right members of Netanyahu’s government.

But Gantz left the cabinet earlier this month after months of mounting tensions over Israel’s strategy in Gaza.

He said he was fed up with a lack of progress bringing home the dozens of Israeli hostages held by Hamas. He accused Netanyahu of drawing out the war to avoid new elections and a corruption trial. He called on Netanyahu to endorse a plan that — among other points — would rescue the captives and end Hamas rule in Gaza.

When Netanyahu did not express support for the plan, Gantz announced his departure. He said that “fateful strategic decisions” in the cabinet were being “met with hesitancy and procrastination due to political considerations.”

How will Israel's wartime policies likely be changed? The disbanding of the war cabinet only further distances Netanyahu from centrist politicians more open to a ceasefire deal with Hamas.

Months of ceasefire talks have failed to find common ground between Hamas and Israeli leaders. Both Israel and Hamas have been reluctant to fully endorse a US-backed plan that would return hostages, clear the way for an end to the war, and commence a rebuilding effort of the decimated territory.

Netanyahu will now rely on the members of his security cabinet, some of whom oppose ceasefire deals and have voiced support for reoccupying Gaza.

After Gantz's departure, Israel's ultranationalist national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, demanded inclusion in a renewed war cabinet. Monday's move could help keep Ben-Gvir at a distance, but it cannot sideline him altogether.

The move also gives Netanyahu leeway to draw out the war to stay in power. Netanyahu's critics accuse him of delaying because an end to the war would mean an investigation into the government's failures on Oct. 7 and raise the likelihood of new elections when the prime minister's popularity is low.

“It means that he will make all the decisions himself, or with people that he trusts who don’t challenge him,” said Gideon Rahat, chairman of the political science department at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. “And his interest is in having a slow-attrition war.”



What Role is the US Playing to Prevent Conflict in Lebanon from Escalating?

US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein meets with Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati [not pictured] in Beirut, Lebanon November 7, 2023. REUTERS/MOHAMED AZAKIR)
US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein meets with Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati [not pictured] in Beirut, Lebanon November 7, 2023. REUTERS/MOHAMED AZAKIR)
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What Role is the US Playing to Prevent Conflict in Lebanon from Escalating?

US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein meets with Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati [not pictured] in Beirut, Lebanon November 7, 2023. REUTERS/MOHAMED AZAKIR)
US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein meets with Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati [not pictured] in Beirut, Lebanon November 7, 2023. REUTERS/MOHAMED AZAKIR)

The United States is working hard to prevent the conflict in Lebanon from escalating. To achieve this, the Biden administration has sent special envoy Amos Hochstein to the region. His goal is to ease tensions and return to previous engagement rules.

Concerns have grown that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may follow through on threats of a full-scale war against Lebanon, especially with the military operation in Rafah nearing its end.

Hochstein is experienced with the Lebanese situation, having successfully brokered a historic maritime border agreement between Lebanon and Israel in October 2022.

He now aims to negotiate a similar agreement for the land borders to secure long-term stability between Hezbollah and Israel.

Hochstein has built a strong relationship with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who negotiates with the Americans on behalf of Hezbollah.

The US envoy hopes to replicate his 2022 success, although the ongoing Gaza conflict complicates efforts, as Hezbollah ties the fates of Gaza and Lebanon together.

Former Lebanese Ambassador to Washington, Dr. Riad Tabbara, says Washington’s current aim is to maintain regional stability and avoid a wide-scale war between Israel and its enemies.

Such a conflict could force US military involvement, an undesirable scenario in an election year with public and congressional opposition to war.

“The main American concern is ensuring any solutions protect Israel, which is struggling politically and militarily,” Tabbara told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“A key part of the US stance is to prevent the war from spreading in southern Lebanon,” he added, noting that “this is why the US continues to send envoys like Hochstein to the region.”

Additionally, the US engages in indirect communications with Hezbollah, despite its public policy of not dealing with the group.

According to Dr. Sami Nader, Director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs, the US holds significant influence in Lebanon but isn't the sole player since World War II, with other actors entering the scene.

Nader highlighted US efforts to prevent Lebanon from being engulfed in war, citing reluctance for a third conflict amid ongoing crises in Ukraine and trade tensions with China.

He emphasized that the timing of any conflict is problematic for the Biden administration, facing a contentious election where mistakes could be exploited by opponents.

Despite American aversion to foreign wars and spending abroad, Nader noted Washington’s commitment to supporting regional allies, particularly Israel.

Dr. Hilal Khashan from the American University of Beirut explained that US mediation between Israel and Lebanon is influenced by concerns about how war would impact US President Joe Biden’s reelection prospects, potentially forcing US support for Israel in conflict scenarios.

Khashan pointed out that while France plays a minimal role in the region, the US remains pivotal in shaping Lebanese political outcomes.

The US collaborates with France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt in a committee seeking to resolve Lebanon’s presidential vacuum, yet ongoing differences among political parties hampers progress towards a consensus candidate.

Moreover, Washington continues to prioritize assistance to the Lebanese army, aiming to counter Hezbollah’s influence, with substantial aid contributions since 2006, including recent support to improve salaries.