IMF Sees 'Some Progress' on Lebanon Reforms, But Says External Support Needed

People enjoy the sunset at Ramlet Al Bayda seaside in Beirut, Lebanon, 27 May 2025.  EPA/WAEL HAMZEH
People enjoy the sunset at Ramlet Al Bayda seaside in Beirut, Lebanon, 27 May 2025. EPA/WAEL HAMZEH
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IMF Sees 'Some Progress' on Lebanon Reforms, But Says External Support Needed

People enjoy the sunset at Ramlet Al Bayda seaside in Beirut, Lebanon, 27 May 2025.  EPA/WAEL HAMZEH
People enjoy the sunset at Ramlet Al Bayda seaside in Beirut, Lebanon, 27 May 2025. EPA/WAEL HAMZEH

Lebanon has made progress on reforms needed to revive its economy but still has key steps to take and will need external funding on concessional terms, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday after a week of meetings in Beirut.

Lebanon's economy went into a tailspin in late 2019, prompted by decades of profligate spending by the country's ruling elite.

Reforms required to access IMF funding were repeatedly derailed by political and private interests, according to Reuters.

Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, both of whom took office in early 2025, pledged to prioritize reforms and secure an IMF financing agreement - but the country now faces additional needs with the widespread destruction and displacement caused by Israel's military campaign last year.

“The authorities have made some progress recently, including the amendment of the Bank Secrecy Law and submission of a new bank resolution law to Parliament,” the IMF's Lebanon mission chief Ramirez Rigo said in a written statement.

Rigo added that his mission held “productive discussions” with Lebanese officials, including on restoring the viability of the banking sector, fiscal and debt sustainability and enhancing anti-money laundering and terrorism financing measures.

He said Lebanon's medium-term fiscal framework should support the restructuring of Eurobond debts, which Lebanon defaulted on in 2020, leading to a sovereign default on its $31 billion of outstanding international bonds.

“Given Lebanon's substantial reconstruction needs, limited fiscal space and lack of capacity to borrow, the country will require significant support from external partners on highly concessional terms,” the IMF statement said.

The World Bank estimated Lebanon's recovery and reconstruction needs following Israel's military campaign at $11 billion. But the US has said it opposes any reconstruction funds to Lebanon until Hezbollah - the Iran-backed Lebanese armed group that fought Israel last year - is disarmed.



China’s Economy Set to Slow in Q2 as Pressure from US Tariffs Mounts

 A laborer works on the glass wall of a building near a luxury brand logo in Beijing, China, Friday, July 11, 2025. (AP)
A laborer works on the glass wall of a building near a luxury brand logo in Beijing, China, Friday, July 11, 2025. (AP)
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China’s Economy Set to Slow in Q2 as Pressure from US Tariffs Mounts

 A laborer works on the glass wall of a building near a luxury brand logo in Beijing, China, Friday, July 11, 2025. (AP)
A laborer works on the glass wall of a building near a luxury brand logo in Beijing, China, Friday, July 11, 2025. (AP)

China's economy is likely to have cooled in the second quarter after a solid start to the year, as trade tensions and a prolonged property downturn drag on demand, raising pressure on policymakers to roll out additional stimulus to underpin growth.

The world's No. 2 economy has so far avoided a sharp slowdown in part due to a fragile US-China trade truce and policy support, but markets are bracing for a weaker second half as exports lose momentum, prices continue to fall, and consumer confidence remains low.

Data due Tuesday is expected to show gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.1% year-on-year in April-June, slowing from 5.4% in the first quarter, according to a Reuters poll. The projected pace would still exceed the 4.7% forecast in a Reuters poll in April and remains broadly in line with the official full-year target of around 5%.

"While growth has been resilient year-to-date, we still expect it to soften in the second half of the year, due to the payback of front-loaded exports, ongoing negative deflationary feedback loop, and the impact of tariffs on direct exports to the US and the global trade cycle," analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a note.

"The third-quarter growth could slow to 4.5% or lower, while Q4 faces unfavorable base effect, putting the annual growth target at risk," the analysts said. They expect Beijing to introduce a 0.5-1 trillion yuan ($69.7 billion-$139.5 billion) supplementary budget from late in the third quarter.

China's exports regained some momentum in June while imports rebounded, as factories rushed out shipments to capitalize on a fragile tariff truce between Beijing and Washington ahead of a looming August deadline.

GDP data is due on Tuesday at 0200 GMT. Separate data on June activity is expected to show both industrial output and retail sales slowing.

On a quarterly basis, the economy is forecast to have expanded 0.9% in the second quarter, slowing from 1.2% in January-March, the poll showed.

China's 2025 GDP growth is forecast to cool to 4.6% - falling short of the official goal - from last year's 5.0% and ease even further to 4.2% in 2026, according to the poll.

BALANCING ACT

Investors are closely watching for signs of fresh stimulus at the upcoming Politburo meeting due in late July, which is likely to shape economic policy for the remainder of the year.

Analysts polled by Reuters expect a 10-basis point cut in the seven-day reverse repo rate - the central bank's key policy rate - in the fourth quarter, along with a similar cut to the benchmark loan prime rate (LPR).

Beijing has ramped up infrastructure spending and consumer subsidies, alongside steady monetary easing. In May, the central bank cut interest rates and injected liquidity as part of broader efforts to cushion the economy from US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs.

But China observers and analysts say stimulus alone may not be enough to tackle entrenched deflationary pressures, with producer prices in June falling at their fastest pace in nearly two years.

Expectations are growing that China could accelerate supply-side reforms to curb excess industrial capacity and find new ways to boost domestic demand.

It's a stiff challenge, analysts say, as Chinese leaders face a delicate balancing act in their quest to cut production while maintaining employment stability in the face of a worsening labor market outlook.